Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.06 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 126.7, usage worth 7.8.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 120 |
| ESPN | 156.8 |
| YAHOO | 120.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 105 |
| CBS | 109.3 |
| FFA | 98 |
| Goes around | Round 11, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB41 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 20.8 picks |
Our board has him at 141.8 points, 8.9 per game — 684 rushing yards, 6.3 rushing TDs, 18.8 catches. That is RB5, 99 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.1 points per game to a ceiling of 12.5, with the median at 8.9. Boom rate 41%, bust rate 54%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 126.7 on consensus and our board has him 99. We rank him 27.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
the case is explicitly more about Kevin O'Connell's coaching track record (every QB he's had has performed well except JJ McCarthy specifically) than about Mason's own tape — the QB-environment upgrade to Kyler Murray IS the actual argument.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.
In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Aaron Jones | 49.2% |
| Jordan Mason ← | 34.4% |
| Zavier Scott | 8.3% |
| Desmond Claiborne | 8.2% |
What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.
Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).
Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target
Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 34.4% |
| Projected carries per game | 7.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 120 |
| Last season, carries per game | 9.9 |
That is a reduction of 2.9 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.1 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +10.5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jordan Mason study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -10.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 2023 | 11 | 63% | -8.8% |
| Jamaal Williams | 2021 | 9.2 | 61% | +101.4% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2023 | 10.7 | 59% | +95.8% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2023 | 8.1 | 58% | +19.8% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2024 | 6.2 | 57% | +30.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 5.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 6.8% |
| Bust rate | 38.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.09 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 3 against CIN — 23.6 PPR on 16 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 48-10. His worst was Week 8 against LAC at 1.6, on 5 touches, final score 10-37. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.5; in the 7 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 8.06, 2.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27-24 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 68 | 0 | 5% | 54% |
| 2 | ATL | 6-22 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 14.3% | 60% |
| 3 | CIN | 48-10 | 23.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 116 | 2 | 0% | 60% |
| 4 | PIT | 21-24 | 10.2 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 57 | 0 | 7.1% | 62% |
| 5 | CLE | 21-17 | 12.6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 11.8% | 66% |
| 7 | PHI | 22-28 | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 1 | 0% | 77% |
| 8 | LAC | 10-37 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3.3% | 35% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 4.3% | 60% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 2.4% | 25% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 0% | 16% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 13 | SEA | 0-26 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 3.4% | 29% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 30% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.3% | 7% |
| 18 | GB | 16-3 | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 94 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 16 |
| Receiving yards | 51 |
| Carries | 159 |
| Rushing yards | 758 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 8.06 |
| Yards per target | 3.19 |
| Catch rate | 87.5% |
| Yards per carry | 4.77 |
| Snap share | 42.75% |
| Target share | 3.49% |
| Air-yards share | -1.52% |
| WOPR | 0.042 |
| RACR | -0.707 |
| Average depth of target | -3.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.6 |
| Total YAC | 102 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.36 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 46.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.93 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 42 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 46 of 49 |
| Target share | 45 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 49 |
The offense threw it 484 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 | 7 | 6.34 | 4 | 3.03% |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 8 | 11.94 | 2.75 | 4.44% |
| Max Brosmer | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 1 | 3.4% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 36% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.28 in those and 7.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against NE — 24 PPR on 27 touches and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 30-13. His worst was Week 10 against TB at 0.5, on 1 touches, final score 23-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 6 decided by more, 12.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10 points per game. He scored 9.58, 4.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 32-19 | 22.2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 147 | 1 | 3.4% | 81% |
| 2 | MIN | 17-23 | 17.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 100 | 1 | 2.8% | 81% |
| 3 | LA | 24-27 | 10.8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 77 | 0 | 6.7% | 75% |
| 4 | NE | 30-13 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 24 | 123 | 1 | 11.5% | 75% |
| 5 | ARI | 23-24 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 89 | 0 | 3.1% | 64% |
| 6 | SEA | 36-24 | 9.2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 7.4% | 28% |
| 7 | KC | 18-28 | 8.9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 6.5% | 86% |
| 8 | DAL | 30-24 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 10 | TB | 23-20 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-20 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | GB | 10-38 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7.7% | 18% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-35 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 78 | 0 | 0% | 52% |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 91 |
| Carries | 153 |
| Rushing yards | 789 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.58 |
| Yards per target | 6.5 |
| Catch rate | 78.57% |
| Yards per carry | 5.16 |
| Snap share | 48.67% |
| Target share | 4.09% |
| Air-yards share | 1.38% |
| WOPR | 0.071 |
| RACR | 0.481 |
| Average depth of target | 3.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.9 |
| Total YAC | 59 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.38 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.45 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 34.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 32.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.77 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 32 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 46 |
| Target share | 40 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 46 |
The offense threw it 533 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jauan Jennings | 23.44% |
| George Kittle | 19.5% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16.8% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.75% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 9.54% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 11 | 12 | 10.25 | 7.17 | 3.76% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 7.7% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 29.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.37 in those and 6.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against DAL — 12.9 PPR on 11 touches and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 42-10. His worst was Week 16 against BAL at 0, on 0 touches, final score 19-33. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.6; in the 12 decided by more, 2.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.79, 50.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LA | 30-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | NYG | 30-12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 4 | ARI | 35-16 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 4.8% | 15% |
| 5 | DAL | 42-10 | 12.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 69 | 1 | 4% | 18% |
| 6 | CLE | 17-19 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 24% |
| 7 | MIN | 17-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | CIN | 17-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | JAX | 34-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 11 | TB | 27-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 12 | SEA | 31-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | PHI | 42-19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 14 | SEA | 28-16 | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 3.7% | 11% |
| 15 | ARI | 45-29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 16 | BAL | 19-33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | WAS | 27-10 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 18 | LA | 20-21 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 4% | 44% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 31 |
| Carries | 40 |
| Rushing yards | 206 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 2.79 |
| Yards per target | 7.75 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 5.15 |
| Snap share | 10% |
| Target share | 1.03% |
| Air-yards share | 0.38% |
| WOPR | 0.018 |
| RACR | 0.136 |
| Average depth of target | 3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.7 |
| Total YAC | 23 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 2.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.69 |
The offense threw it 491 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.13% |
| George Kittle | 19.82% |
| Deebo Samuel | 19.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 18.28% |
| Jauan Jennings | 7.27% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3.3% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15 | 3 | 2.59 | 6.33 | 0.83% |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 12 | 4% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 41.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.66 in those and 3.63 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against LV — 7.3 PPR on 2 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-34. His worst was Week 16 against WAS at 0, on 0 touches, final score 37-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 9 decided by more, 1.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.1 points per game. He scored 2.65, 17% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | SEA | 27-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | DEN | 10-11 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 5 | CAR | 37-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | ARI | 38-10 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 12 | NO | 13-0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 13 | MIA | 33-17 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 14 | TB | 35-7 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 0% | 30% |
| 15 | SEA | 21-13 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 16 | WAS | 37-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | LV | 37-34 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 7% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-13 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Carries | 43 |
| Rushing yards | 258 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.65 |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 10.33% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.97 |
The offense threw it 512 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.7% |
| Deebo Samuel | 19.54% |
| George Kittle | 17.88% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 13.51% |
| Jauan Jennings | 11.64% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 5.2% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 0 | 4.53 | — | 0% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 0 | 0.92 | — | 0% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
6 of his 12 games were blowouts, 30.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.63 in those and 4.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jordan Mason →