TE · LV · GWTTKB

Ian Thomas — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.71 points per game in 2025, usage worth 2.6.

30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Brock Bowers21%
Tre Tucker14%
Ashton Jeanty12.7%
Michael Mayer9.7%
Dont'e Thornton Jr.7.7%
Jack Bech7.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.

Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.

Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.

Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.

Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-5 · harder
Weeks 1–6-9.6 · harder
Weeks 12–17-3.6 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.6 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +7.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Durham Smythe2024175%+26.5%
Will Dissly20233.167%+219.4%
Austin Hooper2023364%+46.1%
Adam Trautman20243.457%+2.9%
Harrison Bryant20242.957%+48.9%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 82% across the series, peaking at 1,963.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 4, pick 101 by CAR
CollegeIndiana
Age at draft22
Height6′4″
Weight259 lb
40-yard dash4.74s
Vertical36″
Broad jump123″
3-cone7.15s
Shuttle4.2s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game2.6
Week-to-week variation0.8
Boom rate0%
Bust rate31%
Games missed per season0.2
Injury historyAnkle

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LV · 9 games

His best game was Week 12 against CLE — 7.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 9.5% target share, in a game that finished 10-24. His worst was Week 4 against CHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 24-25. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.9; in the 6 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 2.71, 3.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
2LAC9-20000000%10%
4CHI24-25000000%56%
5IND6-405332008.3%56%
6TEN20-101.411404.3%30%
9JAX29-301.911902.6%17%
11DAL16-333112002.6%28%
12CLE10-247.6443609.5%56%
13LAC14-311.811804.5%56%
14DEN17-243.7221707.1%50%

Production

Receptions13
Targets13
Receiving yards114
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.71
Yards per target8.77
Catch rate100%

Role

Snap share39.89%
Target share4.32%
Air-yards share2.43%
WOPR0.081
RACR3.123

Efficiency

Average depth of target3.2
Yards after catch per reception5.5
Yards before catch per reception3.2
Total YAC72
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted103.2
Receiving EPA per game0.57

Who else ate

The offense threw it 515 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tre Tucker18.66%
Brock Bowers17.44%
Ashton Jeanty14.81%
Michael Mayer10.14%
Jakobi Meyers9.94%
Tyler Lockett6.9%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 9 games were blowouts, 40.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.27 in those and 1.87 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CAR · 3 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 1.23, 65.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
6ATL20-38003008.1%33%
7WAS7-402.4224011.8%49%
10NYG20-171.311304%22%

Production

Receptions3
Targets6
Receiving yards7
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.23
Yards per target1.17
Catch rate50%

Role

Snap share34.67%
Target share7.97%
Air-yards share2.87%
WOPR0.14
RACR0.5

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.2
Yards after catch per reception2
Yards before catch per reception0.3
Total YAC6
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.2%
Passer rating when targeted16.7
Receiving EPA per game-1.71

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.3%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 545 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Xavier Legette16.25%
Adam Thielen11.99%
Diontae Johnson11.22%
David Moore11.03%
Chuba Hubbard10.44%
Jalen Coker8.9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Andy Dalton251.20.89.95%
Bryce Young111.334%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 3 games were blowouts, 64.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.2 in those and 1.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · CAR · 8 games

His best game was Week 5 against DET — 3.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-42. His worst was Week 17 against JAX at 0, on 1 targets, final score 0-26. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.2; in the 5 decided by more, 1.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.2 points per game. He scored 1.32, 32.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1ATL10-24000000%19%
3SEA27-371.811801.8%16%
4MIN13-21001003.2%35%
5DET24-423.8122805.7%21%
12TEN10-171.911904.2%34%
13TB18-211.611603.8%67%
17JAX0-26001003.2%11%
18TB0-91.5125011.1%37%

Production

Receptions5
Targets9
Receiving yards56
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.32
Yards per target6.22
Catch rate55.56%

Role

Snap share30%
Target share4.13%
Air-yards share6.19%
WOPR0.104
RACR1.26

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.7
Yards after catch per reception6.6
Yards before catch per reception4.6
Total YAC33
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted34.7
Receiving EPA per game-0.96

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share2.4%
End-zone target share6.7%
Expected receiving TDs0.28
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.28

Who else ate

The offense threw it 585 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Adam Thielen25.66%
Jonathan Mingo15.92%
D.J. Chark12.36%
Chuba Hubbard8.24%
Miles Sanders7.68%
Terrace Marshall6.18%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Bryce Young781.2664.46%
Andy Dalton111.881.8%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 35.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.9 in those and 1.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · CAR · 13 games

His best game was Week 1 against CLE — 7.3 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-26. His worst was Week 8 against ATL at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 34-37. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 7 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 3.13, 22.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE24-267.32353011.5%66%
2NYG16-192.31313011.1%74%
3NO22-143.32313012.5%62%
4ARI16-261.613608.3%29%
5SF15-372.822805%39%
6LA10-244.2222209.5%52%
7TB21-31.311304.8%62%
8ATL34-371.211202.8%55%
11BAL3-135.43424012.9%54%
12DEN23-104.12221011.8%58%
14SEA30-243.12211010%64%
16DET37-232.21312014.3%63%
17TB24-301.911903.2%55%

Production

Receptions21
Targets30
Receiving yards197
Touchdowns0
Points per game3.13
Yards per target6.57
Catch rate70%

Role

Snap share56.38%
Target share9.05%
Air-yards share0.78%
WOPR0.142
RACR1.795

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.3
Yards after catch per reception8.7
Yards before catch per reception0.7
Total YAC182
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted87.8
Receiving EPA per game0.31

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share4.8%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.26
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.26

Who else ate

The offense threw it 457 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore27.63%
Terrace Marshall11.01%
Christian McCaffrey10.07%
Shi Smith9.6%
Laviska Shenault Jr.7.49%
Tommy Tremble7.49%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Baker Mayfield6183.786.510.22%
Sam Darnold482.826.639.83%
P.J. Walker342.236.755.7%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 10.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.05 in those and 3.18 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · CAR · 14 games

His best game was Week 5 against PHI — 8 PPR on 5 targets and a 14.7% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 14 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 21-29. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.8; in the 6 decided by more, 1.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.7 points per game. He scored 2.63, 29.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ19-142.7121706.1%55%
2NO26-71.712705.6%68%
4DAL28-364.5331507.7%63%
5PHI18-2184540014.7%63%
6MIN28-345.1124105.1%54%
7NYG3-25002005.3%70%
8ATL19-132111004.2%62%
9NE6-241.912906.9%64%
11WAS21-271.711703.7%63%
12MIA10-33003009.7%73%
14ATL21-29002005.7%55%
15BUF14-311.511502.8%55%
16TB6-321.411402.3%34%
17NO10-186.33333012.5%89%

Production

Receptions18
Targets30
Receiving yards188
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.63
Yards per target6.27
Catch rate60%

Role

Snap share62%
Target share6.59%
Air-yards share5.12%
WOPR0.135
RACR0.974

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.2
Yards after catch per reception5.1
Yards before catch per reception5.3
Total YAC92
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted38.6
Receiving EPA per game-1.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share7.3%
End-zone target share4.8%
Expected receiving TDs0.57
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.57

Who else ate

The offense threw it 599 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore28.35%
Robbie Chosen19.13%
Ameer Abdullah8.52%
Christian McCaffrey7.13%
Chuba Hubbard6.43%
Tommy Tremble6.09%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Sam Darnold10233.367.657.04%
Cam Newton470.81.715.47%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.08 in those and 3.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · CAR · 13 games

His best game was Week 4 against ARI — 8.5 PPR on 5 targets and a 13.9% target share, in a game that finished 31-21. His worst was Week 5 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.9; in the 3 decided by more, 3.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 3.12, 26.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LV30-343.6221605.9%66%
3LAC21-161.912907.4%69%
4ARI31-218.5255113.9%58%
5ATL23-16001002.9%64%
6CHI16-231.911903.7%69%
7NO24-272.1111103.7%70%
8ATL17-255.83328011.5%74%
9KC31-331.812804.5%71%
10TB23-461.711703.6%60%
12MIN27-281.412406.3%66%
14DEN27-3253420010.3%70%
15GB16-245.93429011.8%72%
17NO7-330.913-108.3%66%

Production

Receptions20
Targets31
Receiving yards145
Touchdowns1
Points per game3.12
Yards per target4.68
Catch rate64.52%

Role

Snap share67.31%
Target share7.22%
Air-yards share5.99%
WOPR0.151
RACR1.053

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.3
Yards after catch per reception3.9
Yards before catch per reception3.4
Total YAC78
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted59.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.42

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share8.3%
End-zone target share5.9%
Expected receiving TDs1.09
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.09

Who else ate

The offense threw it 549 times. He took 5.89% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Robbie Chosen25.86%
D.J. Moore22.43%
Curtis Samuel18.44%
Mike Davis13.31%
Ian Thomas 5.89%
Christian McCaffrey3.61%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 6.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.3 in those and 2.94 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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