Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.92 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 156.4, usage worth 5.3.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 181.2 |
| ESPN | 169.8 |
| YAHOO | 130.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 148 |
| CBS | 144.3 |
| FFA | 159 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR61 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 23.2 picks |
Our board has him at 126.9 points, 7.7 per game — 47.7 catches, 606 yards, 3.1 TDs. That is WR6, 154 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.9 points per game to a ceiling of 14.8, with the median at 7.7. Boom rate 93%, bust rate 62%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 156.4 on consensus and our board has him 154. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7%, with a bear case of 5.6% and a bull case of 8.5% and a full range of 4.5% to 11.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brock Bowers | 21% |
| Tre Tucker | 14% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 12.7% |
| Michael Mayer | 9.7% |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 7.7% |
| Jack Bech | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 10.9%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 6.0%, p25-p75 [3.8%, 8.2%], tails [2.1%, 13.5%]. Closest comps: James Washington 2021→2022 (PIT→DAL: 10.3%→2.6%); David Moore 2020→2021 (SEA→DEN: 10.9%→5.7%); Cedrick Wilson 2023→2024 (MIA→NO: 11.8%→7.9%).
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 10.9% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jalen Nailor study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +64% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2023 | 6.5 | 70% | +140% |
| K.J. Osborn | 2023 | 8 | 69% | -28.8% |
| Noah Brown | 2022 | 7.2 | 67% | +77.5% |
| K.J. Osborn | 2022 | 9.2 | 67% | -2.3% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2022 | 5.2 | 66% | -6.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 6, pick 191 by MIN |
| College | Michigan St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 186 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.5s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
| 3-cone | 7.03s |
| Shuttle | 4.28s |
| Career PPR per game | 5.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 16.1% |
| Bust rate | 48.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.17 |
His best game was Week 10 against BAL — 23.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 14.6% target share, in a game that finished 19-27. His worst was Week 17 against DET at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.2; in the 8 decided by more, 3.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 5.92, 11.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27-24 | 3.8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 15% | 88% |
| 2 | ATL | 6-22 | 6.1 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 23.8% | 100% |
| 3 | CIN | 48-10 | 6.7 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 20.8% | 83% |
| 4 | PIT | 21-24 | 9.2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9.5% | 63% |
| 5 | CLE | 21-17 | 7.2 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11.8% | 65% |
| 7 | PHI | 22-28 | 5.7 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | 59% |
| 8 | LAC | 10-37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 69% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 2.6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 17.4% | 53% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 23.4 | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 | 14.6% | 68% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.1% | 60% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 45% |
| 13 | SEA | 0-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 69% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 13% | 58% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 19.5 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 20.8% | 51% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.7% | 62% |
| 17 | DET | 23-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 43% |
| 18 | GB | 16-3 | 7.9 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 10% | 75% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 444 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 5.92 |
| Yards per target | 8.38 |
| Catch rate | 54.72% |
| Yards per carry | 6.5 |
| Snap share | 65.35% |
| Target share | 11.64% |
| Air-yards share | 17.14% |
| WOPR | 0.294 |
| RACR | 0.658 |
| Average depth of target | 12.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.4 |
| Total YAC | 112 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.4% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.5 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.5 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 11.37% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor ← | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 | 33 | 7.19 | 10.33 | 13.2% |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 18 | 5.76 | 5.72 | 11.08% |
| Max Brosmer | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.25% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.54 in those and 8.22 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against GB — 19.1 PPR on 5 targets and a 12.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-25. His worst was Week 11 against TEN at 0, on 2 targets, final score 23-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 6 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 7, 33.6% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.37 expected, a gap of 1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 28-6 | 9.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4.3% | 47% |
| 2 | SF | 23-17 | 14.4 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 16.7% | 93% |
| 3 | HOU | 34-7 | 12.4 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 16% | 86% |
| 4 | GB | 31-29 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 7.4% | 21% |
| 7 | DET | 29-31 | 11.6 | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 19.2% | 73% |
| 8 | LA | 20-30 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 17.4% | 42% |
| 9 | IND | 21-13 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3% | 27% |
| 10 | JAX | 12-7 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8.1% | 50% |
| 11 | TEN | 23-13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.7% | 44% |
| 12 | CHI | 30-27 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6.3% | 39% |
| 13 | ARI | 23-22 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.7% | 58% |
| 15 | CHI | 30-12 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.7% | 53% |
| 16 | SEA | 27-24 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.7% | 53% |
| 17 | GB | 27-25 | 19.1 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 1 | 12.2% | 53% |
| 18 | DET | 9-31 | 8.3 | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 10.5% | 49% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 42 |
| Receiving yards | 414 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | -4 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7 |
| Yards per target | 9.86 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | -1.33 |
| Snap share | 52.53% |
| Target share | 9.53% |
| Air-yards share | 13.35% |
| WOPR | 0.237 |
| RACR | 0.729 |
| Average depth of target | 11.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11 |
| Total YAC | 106 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 138.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.64 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.5% |
| End-zone target share | 13.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.37 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.63 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.46 |
The offense threw it 548 times. He took 8.22% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.14% |
| Jordan Addison | 19.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 12.13% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 12.13% |
| Jalen Nailor ← | 8.22% |
| Josh Oliver | 5.48% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 29.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.83 in those and 7.79 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 1.97, 42.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 17-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | NO | 27-19 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.1% | 92% |
| 14 | LV | 3-0 | 3.3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 15.2% | 24% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 29 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.97 |
| Yards per target | 4.83 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 38.67% |
| Target share | 6.1% |
| Air-yards share | 6.93% |
| WOPR | 0.14 |
| RACR | 1.86 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.7 |
| Total YAC | 21 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 63.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.67 |
The offense threw it 631 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.J. Hockenson | 21.27% |
| Jordan Addison | 18.09% |
| Justin Jefferson | 16.75% |
| K.J. Osborn | 12.56% |
| Brandon Powell | 7.37% |
| Alexander Mattison | 7.37% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 6 | 2.95 | 4.83 | 9.15% |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
His best game was Week 17 against GB — 17.9 PPR on 3 targets and a 8.6% target share, in a game that finished 17-41. His worst was Week 15 against IND at 0, on 1 targets, final score 39-36. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.6; in the 4 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.4 points per game. He scored 4.11, 48.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NO | 28-25 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.9% | 1% |
| 10 | BUF | 33-30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | DAL | 3-40 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10.7% | 21% |
| 12 | NE | 33-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | DET | 23-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | IND | 39-36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.9% | 1% |
| 17 | GB | 17-41 | 17.9 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 1 | 8.6% | 16% |
| 18 | CHI | 29-13 | 10.2 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 15.6% | 46% |
| Receptions | 9 |
| Targets | 13 |
| Receiving yards | 179 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.11 |
| Yards per target | 13.77 |
| Catch rate | 69.23% |
| Snap share | 10.63% |
| Target share | 4.96% |
| Air-yards share | 6.69% |
| WOPR | 0.12 |
| RACR | 0.561 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.4 |
| Total YAC | 67 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 0.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.13 |
The offense threw it 670 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 29.25% |
| Adam Thielen | 17.01% |
| K.J. Osborn | 14.31% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13.67% |
| Dalvin Cook | 8.9% |
| Irv Smith | 5.72% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 62% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.2 in those and 0.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jalen Nailor →