Fernando Mendoza
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at QB; our board rank is the call.
2026 so far1 game
Week 6
Lines Oct 14LV
BUFUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a LV team total of 24. Rank is among every QB we project this week.
Allowed to QBs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Jared Goff (W2, 29.78 PPR, 327 py, 4 TD); Matthew Stafford (W5, 27.32 PPR, 383 py, 3 TD); Drake Maye (W4, 26.16 PPR, 269 py, 3 TD).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #26 against the pass, #29 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: QB passing points BUF allows a game to QBs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Fernando Mendoza's share of his attempts in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
48py 0ptd, 1-3 rush
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
Projected 0.2 (QB35) · LV +3.5 (closing) · total 45.5 · 7 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against QBs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at QB that week.
Usage
LV target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Team
LVLas Vegas Raiders offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs MIA | 27-13 | 21.8 | 47%−8.0 | Cousins30 att |
| W2vs LAC | 26-14 | 18.5 | 54%−3.1 | Cousins29 att |
| W3vs NO | 35-27 | 20.0 | 60%−1.4 | Cousins33 att |
| W4vs KC | 27-30 | 21.5 | 66%−3.7 | Cousins52 att |
| W5vs NE | 17-45 | 21.0 | 68%−2.6 | Cousins28 att |
Depth chartQB, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs QBs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to QBs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Klint Kubliak. QB: Kirk Cousins (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Passing / rushing | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026LV | 1 | 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT3 rush yds, 0 TD | 2.2 | — |
Under points a game: his rank at QB in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected.
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (4,420). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. QBs about 23 valued near #90 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 37 players' worth).
158.2 overall, QB23. Yahoo 122.1 · ESPN 167.0 · Sleeper 185.5 · Underdog 187.3
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs QBs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Pass yds | Pass TD | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Indiana | 13 | 2,980 | 33 | 240 |
| 2024California | 11 | 3,004 | 16 | 105 |
| 2023California | 8 | 1,447 | 13 | 80 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.
GWTTKB takes
The presumptive Week 1 starter (veteran incumbent) is viewed as a clearly worse, declining option at this point in his career, setting up a near-inevitable in-season change once the rookie is deemed ready — the team can't reasonably go back to the veteran once they've made that switch, effectively making the change a matter of "when," not "if." Market overreaction to the "how many usable weeks will I get" question has reportedly pushed his ADP down further than the underlying situation actually justifies.
5th-most-rostered QB — correlated bet alongside heavy Brock Bowers exposure (Raiders stack)