Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.59 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 154.2, usage worth 9.6.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 174.6 |
| ESPN | 168.5 |
| YAHOO | 133 |
| UNDERDOG | 158 |
| CBS | 140.5 |
| FFA | 155 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB50 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 20.5 picks |
Our board has him at 99.3 points, 6.2 per game — 274 rushing yards, 1.4 rushing TDs, 32.5 catches. That is RB6, 153 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.6 points per game to a ceiling of 12.6, with the median at 6.2. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 60%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 154.2 on consensus and our board has him 153. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Tony Pollard | 54.2% |
| Tyjae Spears ← | 22.6% |
| Michael Carter | 16% |
| Nicholas Singleton | 7.2% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
| Projected carry share | 22.6% |
| Projected carries per game | 4.5 |
| Projected carries, full season | 77 |
| Last season, carries per game | 5.5 |
That is a reduction of 1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 24.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.8 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | Tony Pollard | +1.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -12.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 2022 | 11.5 | 72% | -28.8% |
| Jaylen Warren | 2024 | 8.3 | 68% | +30.8% |
| Rachaad White | 2024 | 13.3 | 64% | 0% |
| Chase Edmonds | 2020 | 10.5 | 63% | +9.3% |
| Antonio Gibson | 2022 | 11.1 | 61% | +4.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 81 by TEN |
| College | Tulane |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 201 lb |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| Career PPR per game | 9.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 27.3% |
| Bust rate | 18.2% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against KC — 21.5 PPR on 18 touches and a 18.5% target share, in a game that finished 26-9. His worst was Week 17 against NO at 1.1, on 8 touches, final score 26-34. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.6; in the 7 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 8.59, 10.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.47 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11.8% | 59% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 12.5% | 43% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 17.2 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 59 | 1 | 8.1% | 52% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 14.3% | 45% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 8.4 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13.9% | 53% |
| 12 | SEA | 24-30 | 6.5 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13.2% | 43% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 8.4 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17.1% | 47% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 6.7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 16% | 42% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 5.6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 7.4% | 42% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 21.5 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 18.5% | 47% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5.7% | 53% |
| 18 | JAX | 7-41 | 9.7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 21.2% | 46% |
| Receptions | 45 |
| Targets | 50 |
| Receiving yards | 264 |
| Carries | 72 |
| Rushing yards | 283 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.59 |
| Yards per target | 5.28 |
| Catch rate | 90% |
| Yards per carry | 3.93 |
| Snap share | 45.92% |
| Target share | 12.28% |
| Air-yards share | -4.85% |
| WOPR | 0.151 |
| RACR | 4.316 |
| Average depth of target | -1.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.2 |
| Total YAC | 361 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 23.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 18.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.47 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.42 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 9.45% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears ← | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 12 | 43 | 8.5 | 5.93 | 11.54% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 7 | 9.7 | 1.29 | 21.2% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 57.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.76 in those and 5.55 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against CIN — 27.2 PPR on 11 touches and a 18.9% target share, in a game that finished 27-37. His worst was Week 13 against WAS at 0.3, on 1 touches, final score 19-42. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 6 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.1 points per game. He scored 9.47, 4.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 17-24 | 7.2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 14.8% | 45% |
| 2 | NYJ | 17-24 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 7.4% | 33% |
| 3 | GB | 14-30 | 10.1 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 11.8% | 37% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-12 | 11.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 1 | 11.1% | 42% |
| 6 | IND | 17-20 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 10 | LAC | 17-27 | 8.1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 13% | 46% |
| 11 | MIN | 13-23 | 2.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 44% |
| 13 | WAS | 19-42 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 14 | JAX | 6-10 | 3.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 6.3% | 38% |
| 15 | CIN | 27-37 | 27.2 | 6 | 7 | 87 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 18.9% | 56% |
| 16 | IND | 30-38 | 21.6 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 10 | 27 | 2 | 12.1% | 61% |
| 17 | JAX | 13-20 | 13.3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 95 | 0 | 13.3% | 65% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 35 |
| Receiving yards | 224 |
| Carries | 84 |
| Rushing yards | 312 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.47 |
| Yards per target | 6.4 |
| Catch rate | 85.71% |
| Yards per carry | 3.71 |
| Snap share | 42.75% |
| Target share | 9.92% |
| Air-yards share | -1.63% |
| WOPR | 0.137 |
| RACR | -2.188 |
| Average depth of target | -1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 255 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.4 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 20% |
| Goal-line carry share | 40% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.58 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.2 |
The offense threw it 530 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 23.72% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 13.83% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.86% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.26% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.26% |
| Josh Whyle | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 8 | 18 | 4.95 | 5 | 7.95% |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 17 | 18.5 | 7.88 | 13.85% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 10.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.1 in those and 8.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against JAX — 21.6 PPR on 6 touches and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 28-20. His worst was Week 12 against CAR at 1.7, on 5 touches, final score 17-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 5 decided by more, 7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.7 points per game. He scored 9.05, 6.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.29 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 15-16 | 3.8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 12.1% | 54% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 7.5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 8.3% | 37% |
| 3 | CLE | 3-27 | 4.9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16.7% | 56% |
| 4 | CIN | 27-3 | 8.8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 15.4% | 53% |
| 5 | IND | 16-23 | 16.9 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 14.7% | 52% |
| 6 | BAL | 16-24 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 56% |
| 8 | ATL | 28-23 | 6.6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 15.4% | 44% |
| 9 | PIT | 16-20 | 6.2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16.2% | 59% |
| 10 | TB | 6-20 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 12.8% | 60% |
| 11 | JAX | 14-34 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11.8% | 45% |
| 12 | CAR | 17-10 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 40% |
| 13 | IND | 28-31 | 12.8 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 75 | 0 | 18.2% | 67% |
| 14 | MIA | 28-27 | 17.8 | 6 | 8 | 89 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 22.2% | 66% |
| 15 | HOU | 16-19 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 3.8% | 52% |
| 16 | SEA | 17-20 | 11.7 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 24% | 56% |
| 17 | HOU | 3-26 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24% | 62% |
| 18 | JAX | 28-20 | 21.6 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 11.5% | 31% |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 385 |
| Carries | 100 |
| Rushing yards | 453 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.05 |
| Yards per target | 5.5 |
| Catch rate | 74.29% |
| Yards per carry | 4.53 |
| Snap share | 52.35% |
| Target share | 14.31% |
| Air-yards share | -0.61% |
| WOPR | 0.21 |
| RACR | 1.22 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.4 |
| Total YAC | 460 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.5% |
| End-zone target share | 4.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 19.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.29 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.81 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 38 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 18 of 49 |
| Target share | 8 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 49 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 14.71% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins | 28.78% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 16.18% |
| Tyjae Spears ← | 14.71% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 9.45% |
| Derrick Henry | 7.56% |
| Chris Moore | 7.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9 | 35 | 9.93 | 5.94 | 14.63% |
| Will Levis | 8 | 35 | 8.05 | 5.06 | 13.94% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.3 in those and 9.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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