WR · TEN · GWTTKB

Calvin Ridley — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.76 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 195.7, usage worth 8.8.

31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 195.7
Consensus across 3 books, standard deviation 49.8, 86.5 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on cbs.
SLEEPER253.2
ESPN167.2
UNDERDOG194
CBS166.7
FFA200

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 17, pick 4 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR152
Bye week9
ADP standard deviation49.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 104.6 points, 6.4 per game — 38.2 catches, 514 yards, 2.5 TDs. That is WR6, 193 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 4.4 points per game to a ceiling of 10, with the median at 6.4. Boom rate 56%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 195.7 on consensus and our board has him 193. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.

In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 18.3%, with a bear case of 17.4% and a bull case of 19.8% and a full range of 15.8% to 20.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Carnell Tate18.3%
Calvin Ridley 18.3%
Wan'Dale Robinson15.5%
Elic Ayomanor11.2%
Chimere Dike9.1%
Tyjae Spears8.9%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.

Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).

Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency

Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.

How that share projection was built

25 historical comps for WRs age ~29, prior share 23.3%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 19.7%, p25-p75 [16.8%, 21.8%], tails [13.5%, 23.9%]. Closest comps: Calvin Ridley 2024→2025 (TEN: 23.3%→16.8%); Chris Olave 2023→2024 (NO: 25.3%→19.7%); DeVonta Smith 2021→2022 (PHI: 22.9%→26.8%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)

self-anchored 45% to own 23.3% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 19.7%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+5.1 · easier
Weeks 1–6+0.2 · neutral
Weeks 12–17+10 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+9.6 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20253Chimere Dike+11.2
20212Olamide Zaccheaus+7.1
Read the full Calvin Ridley study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -39.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Nelson Agholor20225.466%-1.1%
DeVante Parker20235.665%-26.3%
DeVante Parker20228.663%-25.4%
Amari Cooper20249.462%-35.8%
Christian Kirk20248.962%-11.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 69% across the series, peaking at 7,634.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 1, pick 26 by ATL
CollegeAlabama
Age at draft23
Height6′0″
Weight189 lb
40-yard dash4.43s
Vertical31″
Broad jump110″
3-cone6.88s
Shuttle4.41s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game13.4
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate28.3%
Bust rate23.9%
Games missed per season1
Injury historyHamstring
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.32

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · TEN · 7 games

His best game was Week 5 against ARI — 18.1 PPR on 10 targets and a 27% target share, in a game that finished 22-21. His worst was Week 11 against HOU at 2.3, on 1 targets, final score 13-16. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9; in the 4 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.8 points per game. He scored 6.76, 23.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1DEN12-206.74827032%95%
2LA19-338.73657019.4%86%
3IND20-413.71727020.6%87%
4HOU0-2652330013%54%
5ARI22-2118.1510131027%66%
6LV10-202.8111802.9%10%
11HOU13-162.3111302.8%2%

Production

Receptions17
Targets36
Receiving yards303
Touchdowns0
Points per game6.76
Yards per target8.42
Catch rate47.22%

Role

Snap share57.14%
Target share16.81%
Air-yards share24.41%
WOPR0.421
RACR0.867

Efficiency

Average depth of target12.8
Yards after catch per reception4.9
Yards before catch per reception12.9
Total YAC84
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted64.9
Receiving EPA per game1.75

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share3.9%
End-zone target share5.3%
Expected receiving TDs0.44
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 570 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Elic Ayomanor16.82%
Chigoziem Okonkwo14.93%
Chimere Dike13.99%
Gunnar Helm10.4%
Van Jefferson9.83%
Tyjae Spears9.45%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 18.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.35 in those and 9.03 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · TEN · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against LAC — 25.4 PPR on 9 targets and a 39.1% target share, in a game that finished 17-27. His worst was Week 6 against IND at 0.9, on 8 targets, final score 17-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13; in the 9 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.5 points per game. He scored 11.72, 6.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.15 expected, a gap of -1.1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CHI17-2483750025.9%84%
2NYJ17-2424.74677222.2%82%
3GB14-301.913908.8%72%
4MIA31-122.5135016.7%58%
6IND17-200.9080029.6%83%
7BUF10-347.23942023.7%79%
8DET14-5222.61015143039.5%79%
9NE20-1712.35873029.6%94%
10LAC17-2725.45984239.1%93%
11MIN13-239.84658020.7%88%
12HOU32-2714.35693024%79%
13WAS19-426.52745019.4%100%
14JAX6-1012.971259037.5%83%
15CIN27-3793541013.5%73%
16IND30-3816.83578115.2%89%
17JAX13-2014.15684020%93%
18HOU14-2310.33576019.2%53%

Production

Receptions64
Targets120
Receiving yards1,017
Carries8
Rushing yards55
Touchdowns5
Points per game11.72
Yards per target8.47
Catch rate53.33%
Yards per carry6.88

Role

Snap share81.29%
Target share23.8%
Air-yards share43.16%
WOPR0.659
RACR0.531

Efficiency

Average depth of target15.3
Yards after catch per reception3.6
Yards before catch per reception12.3
Total YAC231
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted79.1
Receiving EPA per game1.66
Rushing EPA per game-0.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share16.7%
End-zone target share14.3%
Red-zone carry share3.3%
Expected receiving TDs2.15
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-1.15
Expected rushing TDs0.18

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game35 of 51
Yards per target21 of 51
Target share28 of 51
Air-yards share5 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 530 times. He took 23.72% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Calvin Ridley 23.72%
Chigoziem Okonkwo13.83%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11.86%
Tyler Boyd11.26%
Tony Pollard11.26%
Josh Whyle7.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Will Levis106911.477.9924.64%
Mason Rudolph75112.079.1422.6%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 19.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.7 in those and 13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · JAX · 17 games

His best game was Week 11 against TEN — 31.1 PPR on 9 targets and a 29% target share, in a game that finished 34-14. His worst was Week 7 against NO at 1.5, on 4 targets, final score 31-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.6; in the 10 decided by more, 14.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.7 points per game. He scored 13.52, 1.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1IND31-2124.181110100134.4%81%
2KC9-175.2283200019.5%79%
3HOU17-377374000017.5%82%
4ATL23-711.822380016.7%80%
5BUF25-2020.678122214021.6%85%
6IND37-206.648301-4028.6%80%
7NO31-241.514510013.3%88%
8PIT20-1014.36108300031.3%86%
10SF3-34423200009.7%91%
11TEN34-1431.179103118229%80%
12HOU24-2121.9568900116.2%94%
13CIN31-347.3482637020.5%86%
14CLE27-319.34135300026.5%95%
15BAL7-238.95123900028.6%92%
16TB12-3025.869901-12220.5%92%
17CAR26-07.9483900034.8%71%
18TEN20-2822.661010600124.4%85%

Production

Receptions76
Targets136
Receiving yards1,016
Carries9
Rushing yards23
Touchdowns8
Points per game13.52
Yards per target7.47
Catch rate55.88%
Yards per carry2.56

Role

Snap share85.12%
Target share22.54%
Air-yards share35.84%
WOPR0.588
RACR0.618

Efficiency

Average depth of target13.2
Yards after catch per reception2.6
Yards before catch per reception10.8
Total YAC194
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted90.2
Receiving EPA per game1.91
Rushing EPA per game-0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets27
Red-zone target share40.3%
End-zone target share52.5%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Expected receiving TDs6.46
Actual receiving TDs6
Receiving TD luck-0.46
Expected rushing TDs0.05

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game26 of 51
Yards per target37 of 51
Target share30 of 51
Air-yards share17 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 619 times. He took 22.41% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram23.56%
Calvin Ridley 22.41%
Christian Kirk14%
Travis Etienne12.03%
Zay Jones10.54%
Jamal Agnew3.46%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Trevor Lawrence1612813.887.6321.77%
C.J. Beathard187.94.8834.8%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 35.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.73 in those and 12.63 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · ATL · 5 games

His best game was Week 2 against TB — 19.3 PPR on 10 targets and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 25-48. His worst was Week 1 against PHI at 10.1, on 8 targets, final score 6-32.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18 points per game. He scored 14.22, 21.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1PHI6-3210.15851024.2%85%
2TB25-4819.371063120.8%83%
3NYG17-1414.181161030.6%95%
4WAS30-341571380032.5%96%
7MIA30-2812.641026125.6%73%

Production

Receptions31
Targets52
Receiving yards281
Touchdowns2
Points per game14.22
Yards per target5.4
Catch rate59.62%

Role

Snap share86.4%
Target share26.74%
Air-yards share42.08%
WOPR0.694
RACR0.598

Efficiency

Average depth of target10
Yards after catch per reception2.9
Yards before catch per reception6.1
Total YAC91
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted79.1
Receiving EPA per game1.58

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share13.3%
End-zone target share12.5%
Expected receiving TDs2.85
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.85

Who else ate

The offense threw it 573 times. He took 9.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kyle Pitts20.22%
Russell Gage17.28%
Cordarrelle Patterson12.68%
Mike Davis10.66%
Olamide Zaccheaus9.74%
Calvin Ridley 9.56%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 5 games were blowouts, 41.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.7 in those and 13.9 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · ATL · 15 games

His best game was Week 1 against SEA — 33.9 PPR on 12 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 25-38. His worst was Week 4 against GB at 0, on 5 targets, final score 16-30. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.8; in the 6 decided by more, 15.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.2 points per game. He scored 18.77, 9.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1SEA25-3833.9912130223.1%85%
2DAL39-4029.9710109227.8%84%
3CHI26-3016.7513110034.2%93%
4GB16-300050012.8%64%
5CAR16-2321.6810136028.6%74%
6MIN40-2318.96761118.9%74%
7DET22-2319.95769117.5%77%
8CAR25-177.23442013.3%33%
11NO9-24145990026.5%82%
12LV43-6176950124.3%72%
13NO16-2115.8510108027%94%
14LAC17-2026.4812124137.5%84%
15TB27-3132.31014163129.2%89%
16KC14-1717.359130026.5%79%
17TB27-4410.681252029.3%90%

Production

Receptions90
Targets143
Receiving yards1,374
Carries5
Rushing yards1
Touchdowns9
Points per game18.77
Yards per target9.61
Catch rate62.94%
Yards per carry0.2

Role

Snap share78.27%
Target share25.1%
Air-yards share39.99%
WOPR0.656
RACR0.695

Efficiency

Average depth of target14.3
Yards after catch per reception3.1
Yards before catch per reception12.2
Total YAC275
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted101
Receiving EPA per game3.34
Rushing EPA per game-0.19

Scoring position

Red-zone targets22
Red-zone target share25.6%
End-zone target share35.9%
Red-zone carry share2.6%
Expected receiving TDs6.58
Actual receiving TDs7
Receiving TD luck0.42
Expected rushing TDs0.1

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game4 of 51
Yards per target9 of 51
Target share13 of 51
Air-yards share3 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 628 times. He took 24.24% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Calvin Ridley 24.24%
Russell Gage18.47%
Hayden Hurst14.92%
Julio Jones11.53%
Todd Gurley5.93%
Olamide Zaccheaus5.42%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 16.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.5 in those and 20.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Calvin Ridley →
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