Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.73 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 201.4, usage worth 6.2.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 232.6 |
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 187 |
| FFA | 173 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE75 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 44.1 picks |
Our board has him at 108.4 points, 7.1 per game — 49.5 catches, 445 yards, 2.4 TDs. That is TE5, 171 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.9 points per game to a ceiling of 12.7, with the median at 7.1. Boom rate 79%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 201.4 on consensus and our board has him 171. We rank him 30.4 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 3.5%, with a bear case of 1.8% and a bull case of 5.3% and a full range of 1% to 6.1%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~22, prior share 10.7%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 7.3%, p25-p75 [2.4%, 12.2%], tails [0.0%, 14.8%]. Closest comps: Hayden Hurst 2021→2022 (ATL→CIN: 10.4%→14.8%); Jack Doyle 2021→2022 (IND: 10.4%→0.0%); Anthony Firkser 2021→2022 (TEN→ATL: 10.0%→6.1%).
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 10.7% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Gunnar Helm study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +50.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 2022 | 5.8 | 79% | +37.8% |
| Isaiah Likely | 2023 | 7.2 | 76% | +6.2% |
| Isaiah Likely | 2022 | 6.5 | 75% | +33.7% |
| Dawson Knox | 2020 | 6.1 | 71% | +110.8% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2021 | 4.2 | 68% | +2.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 120 by TEN |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 241 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84s |
| Vertical | 30″ |
| 3-cone | 7.15s |
| Shuttle | 4.4s |
His best game was Week 15 against SF — 14.9 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-37. His worst was Week 17 against NO at 1.1, on 2 targets, final score 26-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 9 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.2 points per game. He scored 5.73, 8.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 40% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6.5% | 33% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 5.7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8.8% | 39% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.3% | 40% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 7.4 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 13.5% | 66% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8.8% | 48% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 7.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 15.6% | 53% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 10.3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 8.1% | 52% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4.8% | 45% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 6.9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13.9% | 64% |
| 12 | SEA | 24-30 | 11.1 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 18.4% | 63% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 8.3 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 20% | 53% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | 67% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 14.9 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 14.8% | 49% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 2.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | 71% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5.7% | 58% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 357 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.73 |
| Yards per target | 6.49 |
| Catch rate | 80% |
| Snap share | 52.56% |
| Target share | 10.64% |
| Air-yards share | 8.04% |
| WOPR | 0.216 |
| RACR | 1.328 |
| Average depth of target | 5.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 159 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.7% |
| End-zone target share | 21.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.83 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 10.4% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm ← | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 40.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.17 in those and 4.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Gunnar Helm →