Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.28 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 184.9, usage worth 9.5.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 199.8 |
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.6 |
| FFA | 280 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR144 |
| ADP standard deviation | 21.1 picks |
Our board has him at 73.7 points, 4.5 per game — 27 catches, 341 yards, 2.1 TDs. That is WR6, 265 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.9 points per game to a ceiling of 10.5, with the median at 4.5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 36%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 184.9 on consensus and our board has him 265. We rank him 80.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.2%, with a bear case of 9.8% and a bull case of 12.5% and a full range of 9.1% to 14.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor ← | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 18.5%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 12.9%, p25-p75 [10.4%, 15.5%], tails [9.1%, 19.8%]. Closest comps: Elijah Moore 2021→2022 (NYJ: 19.5%→12.6%); Xavier Legette 2024→2025 (CAR: 18.5%→14.1%); Marquez Callaway 2021→2022 (NO: 18.7%→10.4%).
self-anchored 30% to own 18.5% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 12.9%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -5.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 2021 | 8.9 | 77% | -27.8% |
| Tim Patrick | 2020 | 10.7 | 77% | +15.6% |
| Tim Patrick | 2021 | 9.8 | 73% | -15.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 2023 | 10.3 | 73% | -0.4% |
| Romeo Doubs | 2022 | 7.8 | 72% | +45.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 136 by TEN |
| College | Stanford |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
His best game was Week 2 against LA — 15.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 19-33. His worst was Week 13 against JAX at 1.5, on 5 targets, final score 3-25. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.7; in the 10 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.5 points per game. He scored 7.28, 23.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.26 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 3.3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 28% | 79% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 15.6 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 | 19.4% | 73% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 13.8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 14.7% | 74% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 6.4 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 30.4% | 82% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 3.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 10.8% | 72% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 5.7 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 14.7% | 93% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 4.9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 15.6% | 96% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 9.2 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 21.6% | 94% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 7.6 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 28.6% | 64% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 3.1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 16.7% | 85% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 1.5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 8.4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 12% | 80% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.7% | 81% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 8.8 | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 14.8% | 56% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 13.7 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 20% | 81% |
| 18 | JAX | 7-41 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 30.3% | 94% |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 515 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.28 |
| Yards per target | 5.79 |
| Catch rate | 46.07% |
| Snap share | 80.56% |
| Target share | 18.47% |
| Air-yards share | 32.51% |
| WOPR | 0.506 |
| RACR | 0.542 |
| Average depth of target | 12.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Total YAC | 115 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 65.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.7% |
| End-zone target share | 31.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.26 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.74 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 43 of 44 |
| Target share | 37 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 44 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 16.82% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor ← | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 15 | 79 | 7.23 | 5.89 | 17.69% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 30.3% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 45.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.51 in those and 6.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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