RB · CAR · GWTTKB

A.J. Dillon — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.52 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 2.1.

28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN170
UNDERDOG216
FFA450

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB65

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 0.3 points, 0 per game — 1 rushing yards, 0.1 catches. That is RB6, 336 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 0 points per game to a ceiling of 0, with the median at 0. Boom rate 70%, bust rate 40%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 336. We rank him 166 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.

In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Chuba Hubbard56.9%
Jonathon Brooks25.6%
Trevor Ettiene9.5%
AJ Dillon 8.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.

Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.

Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency

Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share8.1%
Projected carries per game1.8
Projected carries, full season30
Last season, carries per game2

That is a reduction of 0.2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.9 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.4 · harder
Weeks 1–6-2.9 · harder
Weeks 12–17-2.4 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+0.6 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20232Aaron Jones+7.4

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Chase Edmonds20233.162%-17.9%
Cordarrelle Patterson20242.959%+162.1%
Jeffery Wilson20241.558%+12.5%
DeeJay Dallas20241.357%-22.3%
Samaje Perine20244.856%+39.7%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 0% across the series, peaking at 5,114.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 2, pick 62 by GNB
CollegeBoston Col.
Age at draft22
Height6′0″
Weight247 lb
40-yard dash4.53s
Vertical41″
Broad jump131″
3-cone7.19s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game9.2
Week-to-week variation0.7
Boom rate24.5%
Bust rate16.3%
Games missed per season0.4
Injury historyThumb

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · PHI · 6 games

His best game was Week 6 against NYG — 2 PPR on 3 touches and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-34. His worst was Week 1 against DAL at 1, on 3 touches, final score 24-20. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.1 points per game. He scored 1.52, 26% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL24-20100031000%13%
2KC20-171.900031900%17%
4TB31-251.700031700%14%
5DEN17-211.200021200%15%
6NYG17-34222181206.3%14%
18WAS17-241.31130002.9%3%

Production

Receptions3
Targets3
Receiving yards21
Carries12
Rushing yards60
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.52
Yards per target7
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5

Role

Snap share12.67%
Target share1.53%
Air-yards share0.6%
WOPR0.027
RACR0.5

Efficiency

Average depth of target4
Yards after catch per reception3
Yards before catch per reception4
Total YAC9
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted95.8
Receiving EPA per game-0.7
Rushing EPA per game-0.03

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.6%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share2.1%
Expected receiving TDs0.29
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.29
Expected rushing TDs0.09

Who else ate

The offense threw it 497 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown26.08%
DeVonta Smith24.35%
Dallas Goedert17.67%
Saquon Barkley10.78%
Jahan Dotson7.76%
Grant Calcaterra2.8%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jalen Hurts521.5691.26%
Tanner McKee111.332.9%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 22% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2 in those and 1.42 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · GB · 15 games

His best game was Week 5 against LV — 13.6 PPR on 21 touches and a 3.4% target share, in a game that finished 13-17. His worst was Week 4 against DET at 1.1, on 6 touches, final score 20-34. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.3; in the 5 decided by more, 5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 7.84, 20.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CHI38-205.623171319011.1%48%
2ATL24-257.3118155504%68%
3NO18-173.3000113300%52%
4DET20-341.101051102.9%67%
5LV13-1713.6010207613.4%64%
7DEN17-1911.52234156106.3%56%
8MIN10-2410.25541611012.5%51%
9LA20-35.311394004%40%
10PIT19-239.1131197008.1%50%
11LAC23-2010.144321429010.5%72%
12DET29-2211.133381443010%52%
13KC27-199.71114187302.9%63%
14NYG22-249.82325155307.9%53%
16CAR33-307.200071210%18%
17MIN33-102.700072700%16%

Production

Receptions22
Targets28
Receiving yards223
Carries178
Rushing yards613
Touchdowns2
Points per game7.84
Yards per target7.96
Catch rate78.57%
Yards per carry3.44

Role

Snap share51.33%
Target share5.57%
Air-yards share-0.19%
WOPR0.083
RACR-2.687

Efficiency

Average depth of target0
Yards after catch per reception10.5
Yards before catch per reception-0.4
Total YAC231
Broken tackles8
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted99.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.38
Rushing EPA per game-1.57

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share0.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share33.6%
Goal-line carry share40%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs6.1

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game42 of 49
Yards per target5 of 49
Target share40 of 49
Air-yards share19 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 581 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Romeo Doubs17.11%
Jayden Reed16.76%
Dontayvion Wicks10.34%
Christian Watson9.45%
Luke Musgrave8.2%
Aaron Jones7.66%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 11.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.53 in those and 9.27 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · GB · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against LA — 22.1 PPR on 14 touches and a 10.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-12. His worst was Week 7 against WAS at 1.5, on 4 touches, final score 21-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 8 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 9.86, 7.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.01 expected, a gap of -1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN7-2320.156461045117.1%51%
2CHI27-107.71361861012%57%
3TB14-125.8236123208.8%53%
4NE27-249.41211177306.3%58%
5NYG22-273.400063400%32%
6NYJ10-279.246111041013.6%49%
7WAS21-231.500041500%30%
8BUF17-277.3119105403.4%42%
9DET9-156.424101134010%66%
10DAL31-286.5000136500%38%
11TEN17-273.3111061302.7%48%
12PHI33-4017.83424864116%43%
13CHI28-1920.933261893110%68%
15LA24-1222.133351136210.7%37%
16MIA26-2012.82312113617.9%58%
17MIN41-1710.1010124113.8%46%
18DET16-203.3030933011.5%52%

Production

Receptions28
Targets43
Receiving yards206
Carries186
Rushing yards770
Touchdowns7
Points per game9.86
Yards per target4.79
Catch rate65.12%
Yards per carry4.14

Role

Snap share48.71%
Target share7.87%
Air-yards share0.3%
WOPR0.119
RACR0.544

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.5
Yards after catch per reception7
Yards before catch per reception0.3
Total YAC197
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.2%
Passer rating when targeted76.3
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.34
Rushing EPA per game0.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share4.9%
End-zone target share3.1%
Red-zone carry share42.4%
Goal-line carry share71.4%
Expected receiving TDs1.01
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.01
Expected rushing TDs5.76

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game31 of 42
Yards per target25 of 42
Target share26 of 42
Air-yards share15 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Allen Lazard18.55%
Aaron Jones13.36%
Robert Tonyan12.43%
Romeo Doubs12.43%
Christian Watson12.24%
Randall Cobb9.28%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9 in those and 7.43 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · GB · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against SEA — 26.8 PPR on 23 touches and a 5.7% target share, in a game that finished 17-0. His worst was Week 7 against WAS at -0.2, on 5 touches, final score 24-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 8 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 10.92, 9.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NO3-383.612741906.1%28%
2DET35-173.611851803.7%29%
3SF30-284.622861806.5%29%
4PIT27-1710.71116158102.9%40%
5CIN25-2217.94449830111.4%33%
6CHI24-145.9000115900%42%
7WAS24-10-0.21223605.9%23%
8ARI24-217.8000167800%40%
9KC7-13134444846012.5%38%
10SEA17-026.82262216625.7%49%
11MIN31-3415.766441153019.4%75%
12LA36-282055212069111.4%51%
14CHI45-307.1000157100%54%
15BAL31-3010.5111372213.2%37%
16CLE24-228.6331594108.8%44%
17MIN37-1022.32320146327.1%52%
18DET30-377.7114146302.9%54%

Production

Receptions34
Targets37
Receiving yards313
Carries187
Rushing yards803
Touchdowns7
Points per game10.92
Yards per target8.46
Catch rate91.89%
Yards per carry4.29

Role

Snap share42.24%
Target share6.32%
Air-yards share0.36%
WOPR0.099
RACR-6.021

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.4
Yards after catch per reception9.1
Yards before catch per reception0.1
Total YAC310
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted119.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game1
Rushing EPA per game0.36

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share46.2%
Goal-line carry share45.8%
Expected receiving TDs1.04
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.96
Expected rushing TDs7.33

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game31 of 50
Yards per target4 of 50
Target share37 of 50
Air-yards share16 of 50

Who else ate

The offense threw it 593 times. He took 6.5% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Davante Adams29.7%
Aaron Jones11.42%
Allen Lazard10.54%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling9.67%
Randall Cobb6.85%
A.J. Dillon 6.5%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Aaron Rodgers163310.798.155.94%
Jordan Love14131112.5%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.07 in those and 11.76 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · GB · 9 games

His best game was Week 16 against TEN — 25.9 PPR on 22 touches and a 4.2% target share, in a game that finished 40-14. His worst was Week 17 against CHI at 0.3, on 1 touches, final score 35-16. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 4.48, 17.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN43-341.400021400%6%
2DET42-211.700051700%10%
4ATL30-160.30001300%5%
6TB10-383.100053100%16%
7HOU35-201.100051100%23%
8MIN22-284.7111652102.6%14%
15CAR24-161.800011800%8%
16TEN40-1425.91152112424.2%58%
17CHI35-160.30001300%11%

Production

Receptions2
Targets2
Receiving yards21
Carries46
Rushing yards242
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.48
Yards per target10.5
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5.26

Role

Snap share16.78%
Target share0.76%
Air-yards share0.28%
WOPR0.013
RACR1.917

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.5
Yards after catch per reception8
Yards before catch per reception2.5
Total YAC16
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted110.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.2
Rushing EPA per game1.09

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.1%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share5.4%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs0.4

Who else ate

The offense threw it 526 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Davante Adams29.8%
Aaron Jones12.6%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12.6%
Robert Tonyan11.8%
Allen Lazard9.2%
Jamaal Williams7%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 9 games were blowouts, 76.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.75 in those and 3.25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about A.J. Dillon →
All player profiles · 2026 rankings · Research findings · Methodology
GWTTKB publishes research and education. Nothing here is betting advice.