Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.53 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 171, usage worth 6.3.
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| CBS | 171.9 |
| FFA | 610 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR139 |
| ADP standard deviation | 1.3 picks |
Our board has him at 27.7 points, 1.7 per game — 11.8 catches, 117 yards, 0.7 TDs. That is WR6, 365 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.1 points per game to a ceiling of 4.4, with the median at 1.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 38%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 171 on consensus and our board has him 365. We rank him 194 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.
In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.7%, with a bear case of 4% and a bull case of 6.9% and a full range of 4% to 8.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Tetairoa McMillan | 21.4% |
| Jalen Coker | 11.9% |
| Xavier Legette | 10.6% |
| Chris Brazzell II | 8.3% |
| David Moore | 8.2% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.1% |
What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.
Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.
Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency
Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 12.7%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 3.8%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 6.4%], tails [0.0%, 9.8%]. Closest comps: John Metchie III 2024→2025 (HOU→PHI: 10.6%→14.3%); Dante Pettis 2022→2023 (CHI: 12.6%→0.0%); Shi Smith 2022→2023 (CAR: 10.6%→0.0%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 12.7% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.5 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 2021 | 7.1 | 77% | +130.1% |
| Terrace Marshall | 2023 | 4.1 | 72% | -11.3% |
| Van Jefferson | 2022 | 7.9 | 71% | -30.2% |
| Parris Campbell | 2023 | 3 | 71% | -41.7% |
| Alec Pierce | 2023 | 5.6 | 68% | +32.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 2, pick 44 by HOU |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 187 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 10.7% |
| Bust rate | 21.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.81 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against BAL — 18.5 PPR on 7 targets and a 25.9% target share, in a game that finished 10-23. His worst was Week 1 against DAL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 24-20. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2; in the 7 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 5.53, 12.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 2 | KC | 20-17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | — |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.3% | — |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8.3% | — |
| 10 | CLE | 27-20 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9.1% | — |
| 11 | NE | 14-27 | 13.5 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 11.5% | — |
| 12 | BAL | 10-23 | 18.5 | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 25.9% | — |
| 13 | ATL | 27-24 | 5.7 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 25.8% | — |
| 14 | MIA | 10-34 | 7.4 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 15 | JAX | 20-48 | 6.9 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 15.6% | — |
| 16 | NO | 6-29 | 1.4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14.7% | — |
| 17 | NE | 10-42 | 7.1 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9.4% | — |
| 18 | BUF | 8-35 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 18.2% | — |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 48 |
| Receiving yards | 274 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | -5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.53 |
| Yards per target | 5.71 |
| Catch rate | 68.75% |
| Yards per carry | -1.67 |
| Target share | 13.2% |
| Air-yards share | 10.48% |
| WOPR | 0.272 |
| RACR | 1.093 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.9% |
| End-zone target share | 5.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.03 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.03 |
The offense threw it 497 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 26.08% |
| DeVonta Smith | 24.35% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.67% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.78% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.76% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2.8% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12 | 44 | 5.57 | 5.77 | 12.78% |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18.2% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 38.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.56 in those and 2.02 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against DET — 18.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 23-26. His worst was Week 9 against NYJ at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-21. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5; in the 3 decided by more, 6.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 5.54, 21.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.12 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | JAX | 24-20 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.6% | — |
| 8 | IND | 23-20 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 11.1% | — |
| 9 | NYJ | 13-21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.9% | — |
| 10 | DET | 23-26 | 18.4 | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 18.8% | — |
| 11 | DAL | 34-10 | 6.3 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9.1% | — |
| 12 | TEN | 27-32 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9.7% | — |
| 13 | JAX | 23-20 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6.1% | — |
| 15 | MIA | 20-12 | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 16% | — |
| 17 | BAL | 2-31 | 9.8 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 25.8% | — |
| 18 | TEN | 23-14 | 4.4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 254 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.54 |
| Yards per target | 6.86 |
| Catch rate | 64.86% |
| Target share | 12.04% |
| Air-yards share | 12.92% |
| WOPR | 0.271 |
| RACR | 0.72 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 9.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.12 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.12 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 6.79% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III ← | 6.79% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 9 | 33 | 5.67 | 6.97 | 11.79% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 4 | 4.4 | 6 | 14.3% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 29.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.05 in those and 4.99 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against CIN — 4.5 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.1% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 16 against CLE at 0, on 3 targets, final score 22-36. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.4; in the 6 decided by more, 2.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.8 points per game. He scored 2.3, 28.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.35 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IND | 20-31 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.3% | — |
| 3 | JAX | 37-17 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6.9% | — |
| 4 | PIT | 30-6 | 3.2 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7.4% | — |
| 5 | ATL | 19-21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.3% | — |
| 9 | TB | 39-37 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.6% | — |
| 10 | CIN | 30-27 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 5.1% | — |
| 11 | ARI | 21-16 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.6% | — |
| 12 | JAX | 21-24 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.6% | — |
| 13 | DEN | 22-17 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | — |
| 14 | NYJ | 6-30 | 1.6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 18.5% | — |
| 15 | TEN | 19-16 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.9% | — |
| 16 | CLE | 22-36 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | — |
| 17 | TEN | 26-3 | 2.2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9.7% | — |
| 18 | IND | 23-19 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.7% | — |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 158 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.3 |
| Yards per target | 5.27 |
| Catch rate | 53.33% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Target share | 6.79% |
| Air-yards share | 6.49% |
| WOPR | 0.148 |
| RACR | 1.197 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.3% |
| End-zone target share | 7.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.35 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.35 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 592 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 19.75% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.94% |
| Robert Woods | 13.59% |
| Tank Dell | 13.59% |
| Noah Brown | 9.96% |
| Devin Singletary | 6.88% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 12 | 26 | 2.59 | 6.04 | 7.15% |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1 | 2.9% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 32% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.58 in those and 2.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about John Metchie III →