Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.29 points per game in 2025, usage worth 4.2.
28 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brock Bowers | 21% |
| Tre Tucker | 14% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 12.7% |
| Michael Mayer | 9.7% |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 7.7% |
| Jack Bech | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
Base case 88 PPR points, with a bear case of 1.8 and a bull case of 202.8, and a comp mean of 99. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones 2024 | 130.9 | 0.3 |
| Blaine Gabbert 2012 | 12.4 | 0.4 |
| Josh McCown 2014 | 132.2 | 0.4 |
| Jake Locker 2012 | 99.7 | 0.4 |
| Chad Henne 2012 | 161.3 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 0th percentile and his value in the 3th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | Mitchell Trubisky | +11.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -28% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 2023 | 2.3 | 69% | +271.1% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2024 | 1.9 | 55% | +13.5% |
| Jameis Winston | 2023 | 2 | 52% | +73.6% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2020 | 1.9 | 52% | -74.3% |
| Jordan Love | 2021 | 3.5 | 49% | +43.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 1, pick 20 by PIT |
| College | Pittsburgh |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 217 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73s |
| Vertical | 33.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| Shuttle | 4.29s |
| Career PPR per game | 9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 8.3% |
| Bust rate | 25% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Ankle |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 14 against DEN — 8.48 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 7 against KC at -1.68, on 0 targets, final score 0-31. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.5; in the 3 decided by more, 0.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 1.29, 69.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KC | 0-31 | -1.68 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 14 | DEN | 17-24 | 8.48 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 26% |
| 15 | PHI | 0-31 | 1.26 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NYG | 10-34 | 0.64 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 18 | KC | 14-12 | -0.98 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 22 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 1.29 |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 |
| Snap share | 28.5% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 515 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tre Tucker | 18.66% |
| Brock Bowers | 17.44% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 14.81% |
| Michael Mayer | 10.14% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9.94% |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.9% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 4 | 0 | 1.86 | — | 0% |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 0 | 1.26 | — | 0% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 0 | -0.98 | — | 0% |
3 of his 6 games were blowouts, 2.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.07 in those and 2.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against DAL — 16.02 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 41-7. His worst was Week 12 against LA at -0.2, on 0 targets, final score 37-20. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 4.3 points per game. He scored 5.03, 18.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 12 | LA | 37-20 | -0.2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 16 | WAS | 33-36 | 9.02 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 84% |
| 17 | DAL | 41-7 | 16.02 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 68% |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 15 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.03 |
| Yards per carry | 1.67 |
| Snap share | 38.8% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.85 |
The offense threw it 448 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 3 | 0 | 0.03 | — | 0% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 0 | 12.52 | — | 0% |
4 of his 5 games were blowouts, 64.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.03 in those and 9.02 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against LV — 18.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 23-18. His worst was Week 13 against ARI at 3.1, on 0 targets, final score 10-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.3; in the 4 decided by more, 5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.1 points per game. He scored 9.18, 34.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 7-30 | 9.68 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CLE | 26-22 | 10.28 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LV | 23-18 | 18.5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | HOU | 6-30 | 3.46 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 83% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-10 | 12.36 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | LA | 24-17 | 15.2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | JAX | 10-20 | 3.92 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 42% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-16 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | GB | 23-19 | 6.64 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 5.14 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-10 | 11.62 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | ARI | 10-24 | 3.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 49% |
| Carries | 42 |
| Rushing yards | 54 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 9.18 |
| Yards per carry | 1.29 |
| Snap share | 89.5% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.86 |
The offense threw it 506 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10 | 0 | 10.32 | — | 0% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 0 | 3.51 | — | 0% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 11.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.57 in those and 11.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against NO — 19.06 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-10. His worst was Week 14 against BAL at 1.6, on 0 targets, final score 14-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 4 decided by more, 13.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 11.53, 27.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NYJ | 20-24 | 12.3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 48% |
| 5 | BUF | 3-38 | 12.08 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | TB | 20-18 | 8.28 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 58% |
| 7 | MIA | 10-16 | 10.28 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | PHI | 13-35 | 7.34 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NO | 20-10 | 19.06 | 0 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CIN | 30-37 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | IND | 24-17 | 12.16 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | ATL | 19-16 | 13.28 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | BAL | 14-16 | 1.6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 16 | LV | 13-10 | 12.66 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | BAL | 16-13 | 10.92 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | CLE | 28-14 | 13.9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 55 |
| Rushing yards | 237 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 11.53 |
| Yards per carry | 4.31 |
| Snap share | 86.23% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 12.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 19.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.49 |
The offense threw it 571 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Diontae Johnson | 27.07% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 18.05% |
| George Pickens | 15.47% |
| Najee Harris | 9.76% |
| Chase Claypool | 9.21% |
| Jaylen Warren | 6.08% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 11 | 0 | 12.36 | — | 0% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 0 | 6.95 | — | 0% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 13% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.71 in those and 10.83 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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