Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.53 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 2.6.

29 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

ESPN	170
UNDERDOG	215.9
FFA	386

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	WR117

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 65.2 points, 4 per game — 23.2 catches, 306 yards, 1.9 TDs. That is WR6, 309 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 1.1 points per game to a ceiling of 8.7, with the median at 4. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 71%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 309. We rank him 139 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 10%, with a bear case of 8.9% and a bull case of 11.6% and a full range of 6.7% to 15%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Josh Downs	20.1%
Tyler Warren	19.1%
Alec Pierce	17%
Jonathan Taylor	10.1%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ←	10%
Deion Burks	4.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	+1.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6	+4.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17	-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	+2.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -19% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Kalif Raymond	2024	4.7	73%	-12.4%
K.J. Osborn	2024	2.7	72%	-15.1%
Robert Woods	2024	2.7	72%	+13.5%
Braxton Berrios	2023	3.6	68%	-45.5%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2023	3.5	68%	+32.9%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	5.6
Week-to-week variation	1.1
Boom rate	11.3%
Bust rate	40.3%
Games missed per season	0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	0.14

The record, season by season

2025 · MIA · 13 games

His best game was Week 7 against CLE — 4.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 6-31. His worst was Week 18 against NE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 10-38. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.2; in the 9 decided by more, 1.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 1.53, 41.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	IND	8-33	1.7	1	2	7	0	6.5%	44%
2	NE	27-33	3.8	2	3	18	0	9.4%	28%
3	BUF	21-31	0	0	0	0	0	0%	25%
4	NYJ	27-21	1.1	1	1	1	0	4%	47%
6	LAC	27-29	0	0	1	0	0	3.3%	63%
7	CLE	6-31	4.6	3	4	16	0	13.3%	76%
8	ATL	34-10	2.8	1	3	18	0	11.1%	65%
9	BAL	6-28	4.2	2	4	22	0	10.8%	67%
10	BUF	30-13	1.7	1	1	7	0	4.8%	47%
13	NO	21-17	0	0	0	0	0	0%	22%
14	NYJ	34-10	0	0	0	0	0	0%	34%
15	PIT	15-28	0	0	1	0	0	3.8%	36%
18	NE	10-38	0	0	0	0	0	0%	11%

Production

Receptions	11
Targets	20
Receiving yards	89
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	1.53
Yards per target	4.45
Catch rate	55%

Role

Snap share	43.46%
Target share	5.15%
Air-yards share	4.56%
WOPR	0.11
RACR	0.395

Efficiency

Average depth of target	5.5
Yards after catch per reception	2.5
Yards before catch per reception	5.5
Total YAC	28
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0.2%
Passer rating when targeted	45.6
Receiving EPA per game	0.09

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	3.1%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.44
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 479 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle	22.22%
De'Von Achane	18.89%
Malik Washington	14.44%
Darren Waller	7.56%
Greg Dulcich	7.33%
Tyreek Hill	6.44%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Tua Tagovailoa	12	20	1.66	4.45	5.58%
Quinn Ewers	1	0	0	—	0%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 13 games were blowouts, 75.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.14 in those and 1.23 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · TEN · 14 games

His best game was Week 13 against WAS — 21.1 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 19-42. His worst was Week 1 against CHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 17-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8; in the 7 decided by more, 11.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 9.69, 27.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.14 expected, a gap of 2.9.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	CHI	17-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	19%
6	IND	17-20	7.9	1	2	9	1	7.4%	22%
7	BUF	10-34	9	2	4	10	1	10.5%	47%
8	DET	14-52	11.9	2	4	39	1	10.5%	92%
9	NE	20-17	16	5	6	50	1	22.2%	97%
10	LAC	17-27	6.1	3	3	31	0	13%	100%
11	MIN	13-23	19.7	2	6	117	1	20.7%	85%
12	HOU	32-27	12.8	2	5	48	1	20%	90%
13	WAS	19-42	21.1	3	8	61	2	22.2%	100%
14	JAX	6-10	2.9	1	2	19	0	6.3%	94%
15	CIN	27-37	2.9	2	3	9	0	8.1%	91%
16	IND	30-38	9.7	2	4	17	1	12.1%	90%
17	JAX	13-20	6.7	3	6	37	0	20%	100%
18	HOU	14-23	9	4	7	50	0	26.9%	97%

Production

Receptions	32
Targets	60
Receiving yards	497
Touchdowns	9
Points per game	9.69
Yards per target	8.28
Catch rate	53.33%

Role

Snap share	80.29%
Target share	14.28%
Air-yards share	18.66%
WOPR	0.345
RACR	0.639

Efficiency

Average depth of target	11.5
Yards after catch per reception	3.9
Yards before catch per reception	11.7
Total YAC	124
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	99.8
Receiving EPA per game	0.91

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	10
Red-zone target share	20.8%
End-zone target share	38.1%
Expected receiving TDs	3.14
Actual receiving TDs	6
Receiving TD luck	2.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 530 times. He took 11.86% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Calvin Ridley	23.72%
Chigoziem Okonkwo	13.83%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ←	11.86%
Tyler Boyd	11.26%
Tony Pollard	11.26%
Josh Whyle	7.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Will Levis	8	33	9.94	10.15	14.56%
Mason Rudolph	6	27	9.37	6	13.9%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 31% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14 in those and 8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · TEN · 13 games

His best game was Week 4 against CIN — 16.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-3. His worst was Week 11 against JAX at 1.7, on 1 targets, final score 14-34. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 3 decided by more, 6.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.9 points per game. He scored 6.54, 10% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	NO	15-16	9.8	4	7	58	0	21.2%	81%
2	LAC	27-24	11.5	3	3	25	1	12.5%	68%
4	CIN	27-3	16.1	5	6	51	1	23.1%	83%
5	IND	16-23	1.9	1	3	9	0	8.8%	70%
6	BAL	16-24	5.5	3	4	25	0	20%	71%
8	ATL	28-23	10.3	1	2	33	1	7.7%	50%
9	PIT	16-20	3.3	1	1	23	0	2.7%	58%
10	TB	6-20	1.9	1	4	9	0	10.3%	62%
11	JAX	14-34	1.7	1	1	7	0	5.9%	55%
12	CAR	17-10	8.1	4	5	41	0	18.5%	75%
13	IND	28-31	3.8	1	3	28	0	9.1%	82%
14	MIA	28-27	6.8	2	4	28	0	11.1%	89%
15	HOU	16-19	4.3	1	2	33	0	7.7%	48%

Production

Receptions	28
Targets	45
Receiving yards	370
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	6.54
Yards per target	8.22
Catch rate	62.22%

Role

Snap share	68.62%
Target share	12.2%
Air-yards share	14.22%
WOPR	0.282
RACR	0.801

Efficiency

Average depth of target	12.3
Yards after catch per reception	3.8
Yards before catch per reception	9.4
Total YAC	107
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	110.4
Receiving EPA per game	1.59

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	6
Red-zone target share	12.5%
End-zone target share	13%
Expected receiving TDs	1.48
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	0.52

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. He took 9.45% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DeAndre Hopkins	28.78%
Chigoziem Okonkwo	16.18%
Tyjae Spears	14.71%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ←	9.45%
Derrick Henry	7.56%
Chris Moore	7.35%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Will Levis	8	22	5.03	9.18	9.13%
Ryan Tannehill	5	23	8.96	7.3	17.12%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 20.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.9 in those and 6.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · TEN · 16 games

His best game was Week 10 against DEN — 28.9 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 17-10. His worst was Week 18 against JAX at 0, on 1 targets, final score 16-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 6 decided by more, 3.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.7 points per game. He scored 5.17, 3.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	NYG	20-21	2.3	1	2	13	0	6.5%	68%
2	BUF	7-41	2.3	1	4	13	0	17.4%	61%
3	LV	24-22	7	3	3	40	0	11.5%	57%
5	WAS	21-17	9.2	2	3	72	0	13%	92%
7	IND	19-10	0	0	2	0	0	10%	76%
8	HOU	17-10	0	0	0	0	0	0%	74%
9	KC	17-20	0	0	1	0	0	7.7%	78%
10	DEN	17-10	28.9	5	8	119	2	22.2%	77%
11	GB	27-17	4.8	2	2	28	0	7.4%	79%
12	CIN	16-20	9.8	4	6	58	0	17.6%	75%
13	PHI	10-35	1.4	1	2	4	0	8%	95%
14	JAX	22-36	11.3	3	8	23	1	21.1%	96%
15	LAC	14-17	0	0	2	0	0	7.7%	82%
16	HOU	14-19	4.3	2	3	23	0	15%	75%
17	DAL	13-27	1.4	1	3	4	0	7.9%	69%
18	JAX	16-20	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	57%

Production

Receptions	25
Targets	50
Receiving yards	397
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	5.17
Yards per target	7.94
Catch rate	50%

Role

Snap share	75.69%
Target share	11.04%
Air-yards share	17.84%
WOPR	0.291
RACR	0.528

Efficiency

Average depth of target	12.8
Yards after catch per reception	4.5
Yards before catch per reception	11.4
Total YAC	112
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	80.2
Receiving EPA per game	0.16

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	7
Red-zone target share	11.9%
End-zone target share	23.5%
Expected receiving TDs	1.71
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	0.29

Who else ate

The offense threw it 456 times. He took 11.47% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Robert Woods	20.87%
Austin Hooper	13.76%
Treylon Burks	12.39%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ←	11.47%
Chigoziem Okonkwo	10.55%
Derrick Henry	9.4%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Ryan Tannehill	11	42	7	8.81	12.95%
Malik Willis	3	4	1.43	5.75	7.57%
Joshua Dobbs	2	4	0.7	1	5.8%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 4.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.85 in those and 6.15 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · TEN · 15 games

His best game was Week 18 against HOU — 17.8 PPR on 5 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 28-25. His worst was Week 17 against MIA at 0, on 2 targets, final score 34-3. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7; in the 7 decided by more, 7.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 7.17, 7.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	ARI	13-38	2	1	2	10	0	5.6%	38%
2	SEA	33-30	1.6	1	1	6	0	2.6%	18%
3	IND	25-16	13.3	4	4	53	1	15.4%	78%
4	NYJ	24-27	5.9	3	8	29	0	16.3%	81%
6	BUF	34-31	5.7	3	3	27	0	12%	55%
8	IND	34-31	9.6	2	3	16	1	9.4%	32%
9	LA	28-16	2.4	1	1	14	0	3.8%	38%
10	NO	23-21	2	1	1	10	0	3.7%	37%
11	HOU	13-22	17.7	7	8	107	0	15.7%	67%
12	NE	13-36	10.5	2	6	25	1	28.6%	83%
14	JAX	20-0	6.1	3	3	31	0	10%	73%
15	PIT	13-19	7.2	4	7	32	0	21.9%	89%
16	SF	20-17	5.8	2	3	38	0	10%	63%
17	MIA	34-3	0	0	2	0	0	11.1%	70%
18	HOU	28-25	17.8	4	5	78	1	15.6%	74%

Production

Receptions	38
Targets	57
Receiving yards	476
Touchdowns	4
Points per game	7.17
Yards per target	8.35
Catch rate	66.67%

Role

Snap share	59.73%
Target share	12.11%
Air-yards share	17.49%
WOPR	0.303
RACR	1.057

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.5
Yards after catch per reception	3.8
Yards before catch per reception	8.7
Total YAC	144
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	115.8
Receiving EPA per game	1.45

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	11
Red-zone target share	12.9%
End-zone target share	6.1%
Expected receiving TDs	3.03
Actual receiving TDs	4
Receiving TD luck	0.97

Who else ate

The offense threw it 534 times. He took 10.98% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown	20.23%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ←	10.98%
Julio Jones	9.25%
Anthony Firkser	8.29%
Chester Rogers	8.29%
Geoff Swaim	7.71%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 17.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.65 in those and 6.95 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · TEN · 9 games

His best game was Week 16 against GB — 2.9 PPR on 1 targets and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 14-40. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 0, on 1 targets, final score 41-38. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.9; in the 5 decided by more, 0.9. Game state made no difference to his scoring.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2 points per game. He scored 0.92, 33.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
3	MIN	31-30	0	0	2	0	0	6.1%	16%
5	BUF	42-16	1.7	1	1	7	0	3.6%	68%
6	HOU	42-36	2	0	0	0	0	0%	36%
10	IND	17-34	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	14%
11	BAL	30-24	1.7	1	1	7	0	3.1%	0%
14	JAX	31-10	0	0	1	0	0	4.3%	29%
15	DET	46-25	0	0	0	0	0	0%	13%
16	GB	14-40	2.9	1	1	19	0	4%	24%
17	HOU	41-38	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	10%

Production

Receptions	3
Targets	8
Receiving yards	33
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	0.92
Yards per target	4.13
Catch rate	37.5%

Role

Snap share	23.33%
Target share	3.17%
Air-yards share	3.41%
WOPR	0.072
RACR	0.488

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.3
Yards after catch per reception	1.7
Yards before catch per reception	9.3
Total YAC	5
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	10.9
Receiving EPA per game	-0.21

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	1.4%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.14
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 484 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown	22.99%
Corey Davis	19.96%
Jonnu Smith	14.1%
Anthony Firkser	11.5%
Adam Humphries	7.59%
Derrick Henry	6.72%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 9 games were blowouts, 55.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.92 in those and 0.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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