WR · ARI · GWTTKB

Zay Jones — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.05 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.1.

30 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Trey McBride21.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr14.4%
Michael Wilson13.9%
Jeremiyah Love10%
Elijah Higgins6.2%
James Conner6.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.

Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).

Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.

Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-1 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20236Christian Kirk+4.2

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -33.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Nelson Agholor20243.878%-7.7%
Nelson Agholor20225.468%-1.1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster20244.866%+0.1%
Josh Reynolds20244.865%-12.7%
Nelson Agholor20236.164%+25.4%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Up 223% across the series, peaking at 2,549.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2017, round 2, pick 37 by BUF
CollegeEast Carolina
Age at draft22
Height6′2″
Weight201 lb
40-yard dash4.45s
Vertical36.5″
Broad jump133″
3-cone6.79s
Shuttle4.01s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game7.7
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate20%
Bust rate26.7%
Games missed per season1.3
Injury historyKnee, Concussion

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · ARI · 6 games

His best game was Week 6 against IND — 12.9 PPR on 8 targets and a 20.5% target share, in a game that finished 27-31. His worst was Week 10 against SEA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 22-44. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 5.05, 1.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NO20-131.411403.4%47%
3SF15-164.5232508.8%50%
5TEN21-222.8238010%50%
6IND27-3112.95879020.5%79%
7GB23-278.7226705.9%54%
10SEA22-44001002.3%14%

Production

Receptions12
Targets18
Receiving yards183
Touchdowns0
Points per game5.05
Yards per target10.17
Catch rate66.67%

Role

Snap share49%
Target share8.48%
Air-yards share14.2%
WOPR0.227
RACR0.807

Efficiency

Average depth of target13.4
Yards after catch per reception3
Yards before catch per reception12.3
Total YAC36
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted76.9
Receiving EPA per game0.93

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2%
End-zone target share2.6%
Expected receiving TDs0.65
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.65

Who else ate

The offense threw it 648 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride27.39%
Michael Wilson20.42%
Marvin Harrison11.83%
Michael Carter7.29%
Elijah Higgins6%
Greg Dortch5.35%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kyler Murray372.95.297.4%
Jacoby Brissett3117.213.279.57%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 6.06 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · ARI · 6 games

His best game was Week 18 against SF — 8.6 PPR on 5 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 47-24. His worst was Week 7 against LAC at 0, on 1 targets, final score 17-15. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.4; in the 3 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.73, 15.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
7LAC17-15001004%19%
8MIA28-271.311303%26%
14SEA18-302.3121305.3%34%
15NE30-171.311303.2%30%
17LA9-132.9111902.2%39%
18SF47-248.64546015.6%58%

Production

Receptions8
Targets11
Receiving yards84
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.73
Yards per target7.64
Catch rate72.73%

Role

Snap share34.33%
Target share5.55%
Air-yards share9.88%
WOPR0.15
RACR0.538

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.6
Yards after catch per reception2.4
Yards before catch per reception8.1
Total YAC19
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted56.6
Receiving EPA per game-0.08

Who else ate

The offense threw it 543 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride28.11%
Marvin Harrison22.18%
Michael Wilson13.58%
James Conner10.52%
Greg Dortch9.56%
Elijah Higgins4.59%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 52.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.6 in those and 1.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · JAX · 9 games

His best game was Week 1 against IND — 16.5 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.9% target share, in a game that finished 31-21. His worst was Week 2 against KC at 0, on 6 targets, final score 9-17. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.5; in the 3 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 8.68, 29% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1IND31-2116.55755121.9%89%
2KC9-170060014.6%66%
5BUF25-2011.33523113.5%43%
11TEN34-1464420012.9%63%
12HOU24-212131008.1%71%
13CIN31-3412.85878020.5%93%
14CLE27-317.951429028.6%84%
15BAL7-2310.95859019%61%
18TEN20-2810.76947022%93%

Production

Receptions34
Targets64
Receiving yards321
Touchdowns2
Points per game8.68
Yards per target5.02
Catch rate53.13%

Role

Snap share73.67%
Target share17.9%
Air-yards share26.66%
WOPR0.454
RACR0.49

Efficiency

Average depth of target13.6
Yards after catch per reception1.5
Yards before catch per reception7.9
Total YAC51
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted64.6
Receiving EPA per game-0.49

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share16.4%
End-zone target share15%
Expected receiving TDs2.58
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.58

Who else ate

The offense threw it 619 times. He took 10.54% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram23.56%
Calvin Ridley22.41%
Christian Kirk14%
Travis Etienne12.03%
Zay Jones 10.54%
Jamal Agnew3.46%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 9 games were blowouts, 7.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6 in those and 7.45 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · JAX · 16 games

His best game was Week 15 against DAL — 34.9 PPR on 8 targets and a 19.5% target share, in a game that finished 40-34. His worst was Week 16 against NYJ at 2.1, on 4 targets, final score 19-3. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.4; in the 7 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.4 points per game. He scored 12.38, 3.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS22-2812.56965023.7%83%
2IND24-05.33423013.3%68%
3LAC38-1024.5101185128.9%76%
5HOU6-134.23812018.2%80%
6IND27-349.25542022.7%98%
7NYG17-2310.841054023.3%99%
8DEN17-216.53328010.7%99%
9LV27-2095540017.2%94%
10KC17-2714.881068025.6%94%
12BAL28-2727.51114145037.8%90%
13DET14-403.62716021.2%82%
14TEN36-2221.781277128.6%78%
15DAL40-3434.968109319.5%96%
16NYJ19-32.11414013.3%79%
17HOU31-35.43524017.9%78%
18TEN20-166.14621020.7%94%

Production

Receptions82
Targets121
Receiving yards823
Carries4
Rushing yards18
Touchdowns5
Points per game12.38
Yards per target6.8
Catch rate67.77%
Yards per carry4.5

Role

Snap share86.75%
Target share21.41%
Air-yards share25.45%
WOPR0.5
RACR0.882

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.6
Yards after catch per reception3.4
Yards before catch per reception6.6
Total YAC282
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted93.8
Receiving EPA per game2.59
Rushing EPA per game0.03

Scoring position

Red-zone targets21
Red-zone target share23.6%
End-zone target share27.9%
Red-zone carry share2.2%
Goal-line carry share3.2%
Expected receiving TDs4.35
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck-0.35
Expected rushing TDs0.48

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game31 of 51
Yards per target44 of 51
Target share30 of 51
Air-yards share39 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 596 times. He took 21.08% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Christian Kirk23.17%
Zay Jones 21.08%
Evan Engram17.07%
Marvin Jones14.11%
Travis Etienne7.84%
Jamal Agnew5.23%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.7 in those and 13.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · LV · 15 games

His best game was Week 17 against IND — 19.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 4 against LAC at 1.5, on 1 targets, final score 14-28. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 6 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.5 points per game. He scored 7.06, 9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL33-2712.6224613.8%23%
3MIA31-282.5111502.5%27%
4LAC14-281.511503.1%14%
5CHI9-201.612605.7%18%
7PHI33-225.3114302.9%18%
9NYG16-233142008.7%96%
10KC14-413.2132208.8%85%
11CIN13-323122008%72%
12DAL36-3311.35759018.4%69%
13WAS15-175.13521013.9%86%
14KC9-485.55725016.3%84%
15CLE16-1412.76967025%86%
16DEN17-13116850032%75%
17IND23-2019.9810120031.3%77%
18LAC35-327.75827024.2%89%

Production

Receptions47
Targets70
Receiving yards546
Carries2
Rushing yards3
Touchdowns1
Points per game7.06
Yards per target7.8
Catch rate67.14%
Yards per carry1.5

Role

Snap share61.27%
Target share13.64%
Air-yards share23.38%
WOPR0.367
RACR1.497

Efficiency

Average depth of target14
Yards after catch per reception3.6
Yards before catch per reception8
Total YAC170
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted65.5
Receiving EPA per game0.4
Rushing EPA per game-0.03

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share10.3%
End-zone target share15.8%
Expected receiving TDs1.85
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.85

Who else ate

The offense threw it 628 times. He took 11.84% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Hunter Renfrow21.66%
Darren Waller15.74%
Zay Jones 11.84%
Josh Jacobs10.83%
Bryan Edwards9.98%
Foster Moreau7.45%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.9 in those and 9.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · LV · 11 games

His best game was Week 2 against NO — 8.5 PPR on 1 targets and a 2.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-24. His worst was Week 13 against NYJ at 0, on 1 targets, final score 31-28. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3; in the 5 decided by more, 3.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 3.32, 1.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
2NO34-248.5111512.9%23%
3NE20-366.2333209.4%46%
4BUF23-307.24732016.3%89%
5KC40-321.211203.2%13%
10DEN37-121.611604.5%11%
11KC31-352.8111803.4%8%
12ATL6-431.311302.7%21%
13NYJ31-28001002.2%9%
14IND27-441.1600000%24%
15LAC27-301.912906.7%70%
17DEN32-314.7123705.7%38%

Production

Receptions14
Targets20
Receiving yards154
Touchdowns1
Points per game3.32
Yards per target7.7
Catch rate70%

Role

Snap share32%
Target share5.18%
Air-yards share4.35%
WOPR0.107
RACR0.67

Efficiency

Average depth of target7.1
Yards after catch per reception4.6
Yards before catch per reception6.4
Total YAC65
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted88.3
Receiving EPA per game-0.1

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share5.5%
End-zone target share10.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.06
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.06

Who else ate

The offense threw it 551 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darren Waller28.66%
Nelson Agholor16.21%
Hunter Renfrow15.22%
Josh Jacobs8.89%
Henry Ruggs8.5%
Jalen Richard4.55%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Derek Carr10183.478.065.03%
Marcus Mariota121.94.56.7%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.35 in those and 2.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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