Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.9 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.4, usage worth 4.9.
28 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| ESPN | 170.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 216 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB104 |
Our board has him at 74.1 points, 4.6 per game — 199 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 18.6 catches. That is RB6, 210 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.9 points per game to a ceiling of 11.3, with the median at 4.6. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.4 on consensus and our board has him 210. We rank him 39.6 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| James Cook | 67.6% |
| Ray Davis | 19.9% |
| Ty Johnson ← | 11% |
| Frank Gore Jr | 1.5% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
| Projected carry share | 11% |
| Projected carries per game | 2.6 |
| Projected carries, full season | 45 |
| Last season, carries per game | 2.9 |
That is a reduction of 0.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 29.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.1 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -7.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -1.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2024 | 3 | 59% | +48.6% |
| Samaje Perine | 2024 | 4.8 | 58% | +39.7% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2024 | 3.7 | 58% | +98.5% |
| Samaje Perine | 2023 | 7.1 | 57% | +0.1% |
| Jamaal Williams | 2024 | 2.7 | 55% | +9.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 0 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 6, pick 186 by DET |
| College | Maryland |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Career PPR per game | 6.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 22.2% |
| Bust rate | 28.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
His best game was Week 18 against NYJ — 19.6 PPR on 15 touches and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 35-8. His worst was Week 4 against NO at 0, on 1 touches, final score 31-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 9 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.9 points per game. He scored 5.9, 19.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 2.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4% | 33% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 25% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-21 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7.4% | 25% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-24 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7.7% | 42% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 8% | 20% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.1% | 40% |
| 11 | TB | 44-32 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 6.7% | 32% |
| 12 | HOU | 19-23 | 8.2 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9.4% | 35% |
| 13 | PIT | 26-7 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 21.7% | 27% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 5.9 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 11.1% | 25% |
| 15 | NE | 35-31 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11.5% | 26% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-20 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 17 | PHI | 12-13 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 12.1% | 38% |
| 18 | NYJ | 35-8 | 19.6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 7.1% | 33% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 263 |
| Carries | 50 |
| Rushing yards | 200 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 5.9 |
| Yards per target | 7.97 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 29.59% |
| Target share | 6.84% |
| Air-yards share | -2.1% |
| WOPR | 0.087 |
| RACR | -0.139 |
| Average depth of target | -1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.6 |
| Total YAC | 301 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 116.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.67 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.4 |
The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16 | 31 | 5.04 | 7.84 | 6.82% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 19.6 | 10 | 7.1% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.18 in those and 6.09 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against DET — 17.3 PPR on 7 touches and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 48-42. His worst was Week 8 against SEA at 0, on 1 touches, final score 31-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 9 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 5.39, 35.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4.3% | 23% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11.1% | 16% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 13.6 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 10% | 28% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 19% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.1% | 22% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 20% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.6% | 30% |
| 11 | KC | 30-21 | 1.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 2.6% | 45% |
| 13 | SF | 35-10 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 5.6% | 28% |
| 14 | LA | 42-44 | 13.5 | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8.1% | 35% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 17.3 | 5 | 5 | 114 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15.6% | 30% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 3.7% | 39% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 3.7% | 30% |
| 18 | NE | 16-23 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6.5% | 25% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 284 |
| Carries | 41 |
| Rushing yards | 213 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 5.39 |
| Yards per target | 11.36 |
| Catch rate | 72% |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 |
| Snap share | 28.76% |
| Target share | 5.06% |
| Air-yards share | 5% |
| WOPR | 0.111 |
| RACR | 4.541 |
| Average depth of target | 8.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Total YAC | 170 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 149 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.38 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 9.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.32 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.68 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.3 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16 | 23 | 5.59 | 12.35 | 4.97% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 0 | 6.5% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 43.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.67 in those and 5.5 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against NYJ — 14.8 PPR on 6 touches and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 32-6. His worst was Week 9 against CIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 18-24. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times.
His usage that season was worth 4.6 points per game. He scored 3.6, 0.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NE | 25-29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 9 | CIN | 18-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | DEN | 22-24 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 11 | NYJ | 32-6 | 14.8 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 10.3% | 21% |
| 12 | PHI | 34-37 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 14 | KC | 20-17 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 5.6% | 21% |
| 15 | DAL | 31-10 | 6.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 7.7% | 29% |
| 17 | NE | 27-21 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 18 | MIA | 21-14 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.7% | 17% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 7 |
| Receiving yards | 62 |
| Carries | 30 |
| Rushing yards | 132 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.6 |
| Yards per target | 8.86 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 |
| Snap share | 13.56% |
| Target share | 2.92% |
| Air-yards share | 0.06% |
| WOPR | 0.044 |
| RACR | 0.95 |
| Average depth of target | 0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.3 |
| Total YAC | 60 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 143.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.27 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.74 |
The offense threw it 579 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.36% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 16.7% |
| Gabe Davis | 14.86% |
| James Cook | 9.91% |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.26% |
| Dawson Knox | 6.61% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 66.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.8 in those and 1.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against CHI — 14.8 PPR on 7 touches and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-10. His worst was Week 5 against MIA at 0, on 0 touches, final score 40-17. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.6; in the 4 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 3.57, 21.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CLE | 31-30 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7% | 19% |
| 4 | PIT | 24-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | MIA | 40-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | DEN | 16-9 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4.3% | 17% |
| 8 | NE | 17-22 | 0.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.9% | 32% |
| 9 | BUF | 20-17 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 11 | NE | 3-10 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5% | 28% |
| 12 | CHI | 31-10 | 14.8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 7.1% | 24% |
| 13 | MIN | 22-27 | 10.1 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12.7% | 33% |
| 16 | JAX | 3-19 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 17 | SEA | 6-23 | 6.7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 18 | MIA | 6-11 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 9.4% | 38% |
| Receptions | 12 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receiving yards | 88 |
| Carries | 30 |
| Rushing yards | 160 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.57 |
| Yards per target | 3.67 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Yards per carry | 5.33 |
| Snap share | 22.5% |
| Target share | 5.21% |
| Air-yards share | 1.85% |
| WOPR | 0.091 |
| RACR | -0.858 |
| Average depth of target | 2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.3 |
| Total YAC | 73 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 41.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.96 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.11 |
The offense threw it 625 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Garrett Wilson | 25.04% |
| Tyler Conklin | 14.82% |
| Elijah Moore | 11.07% |
| Corey Davis | 10.9% |
| Michael Carter | 9.2% |
| Braxton Berrios | 5.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 7 | 4 | 0.76 | 1.5 | 2.17% |
| Mike White | 3 | 14 | 10.53 | 4.64 | 10.3% |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 6 | 2.95 | 2.83 | 8.2% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 50.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.17 in those and 2.58 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against CIN — 19.6 PPR on 10 touches and a 12.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-31. His worst was Week 18 against BUF at -0.1, on 2 touches, final score 10-27. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.8; in the 8 decided by more, 6.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 7.8, 4.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 14-19 | 3.6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 8.3% | 54% |
| 2 | NE | 6-25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 0 | 0% | 45% |
| 3 | DEN | 0-26 | 3.3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 15.2% | 57% |
| 4 | TEN | 27-24 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5.9% | 33% |
| 5 | ATL | 20-27 | 11.4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 9.7% | 39% |
| 7 | NE | 13-54 | 13.1 | 6 | 7 | 65 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 17.1% | 32% |
| 8 | CIN | 34-31 | 19.6 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 12.2% | 29% |
| 9 | IND | 30-45 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 5.8% | 42% |
| 10 | BUF | 17-45 | 8.8 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17.4% | 32% |
| 11 | MIA | 17-24 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.9% | 33% |
| 12 | HOU | 21-14 | 4.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 4.3% | 34% |
| 13 | PHI | 18-33 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 14 | NO | 9-30 | 9.7 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 17.5% | 73% |
| 17 | TB | 24-28 | 17.2 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 13.3% | 51% |
| 18 | BUF | 10-27 | -0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5.3% | 33% |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 372 |
| Carries | 61 |
| Rushing yards | 238 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.8 |
| Yards per target | 6.76 |
| Catch rate | 61.82% |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 |
| Snap share | 42.27% |
| Target share | 9.73% |
| Air-yards share | 3.23% |
| WOPR | 0.169 |
| RACR | 2.129 |
| Average depth of target | 2.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.1 |
| Total YAC | 334 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.42 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 19.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.43 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.08 |
The offense threw it 603 times. He took 9.52% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elijah Moore | 13.32% |
| Jamison Crowder | 12.28% |
| Braxton Berrios | 11.25% |
| Corey Davis | 10.21% |
| Ty Johnson ← | 9.52% |
| Michael Carter | 9.52% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 10 | 30 | 6.11 | 5.07 | 9.06% |
| Mike White | 3 | 21 | 13.83 | 8.19 | 15.57% |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 3 | 12.1 | 13.33 | 5.8% |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 2.3 | 8 | 2.9% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 34% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.63 in those and 8.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against LV — 19.7 PPR on 24 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 7 against BUF at 0, on 0 touches, final score 10-18. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.8; in the 6 decided by more, 3.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.6 points per game. He scored 5.75, 4.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GB | 21-42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 8% |
| 6 | MIA | 0-24 | 4.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 2.6% | 6% |
| 7 | BUF | 10-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | KC | 9-35 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 3.6% | 11% |
| 11 | LAC | 28-34 | 5.7 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.4% | 23% |
| 12 | MIA | 3-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.4% | 18% |
| 13 | LV | 28-31 | 19.7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 22 | 104 | 1 | 10% | 63% |
| 14 | SEA | 3-40 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 15 | LA | 23-20 | 17.5 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 22.2% | 34% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-16 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 17 | NE | 14-28 | 8.8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 6.1% | 54% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receiving yards | 99 |
| Carries | 54 |
| Rushing yards | 254 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.75 |
| Yards per target | 4.71 |
| Catch rate | 76.19% |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 |
| Snap share | 25.55% |
| Target share | 6.96% |
| Air-yards share | 1.2% |
| WOPR | 0.115 |
| RACR | -2.602 |
| Average depth of target | 2.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.9 |
| Total YAC | 129 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.86 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.04 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marvin Jones | 20.61% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 18.1% |
| Danny Amendola | 12.37% |
| D'Andre Swift | 10.22% |
| Quintez Cephus | 6.27% |
| Kenny Golladay | 5.73% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 10 | 21 | 6.2 | 4.71 | 7.66% |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | — | 0% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 16.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.06 in those and 8.84 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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