Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.53 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 202.5, usage worth 7.7.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 234.8 |
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 211.5 |
| FFA | 246 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR163 |
| ADP standard deviation | 45.7 picks |
Our board has him at 92.9 points, 5.7 per game — 31.1 catches, 402 yards, 3.6 TDs. That is WR6, 232 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.8 points per game to a ceiling of 10.6, with the median at 5.7. Boom rate 86%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 202.5 on consensus and our board has him 232. We rank him 29.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.7%, with a bear case of 10.4% and a bull case of 13.1% and a full range of 9.7% to 14.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| DJ Moore | 17.1% |
| Khalil Shakir | 16.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 14.4% |
| Keon Coleman ← | 11.7% |
| James Cook | 9.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 14.8%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 12.4%, p25-p75 [9.7%, 15.3%], tails [8.1%, 18.3%]. Closest comps: Tim Patrick 2020→2021 (DEN: 16.7%→17.9%); James Washington 2020→2021 (PIT: 12.7%→7.7%); Kalif Raymond 2021→2022 (DET: 14.0%→12.9%).
self-anchored 45% to own 14.8% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 12.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Curtis Samuel | +8.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -28% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2023 | 8.8 | 77% | +40.4% |
| Alec Pierce | 2022 | 7 | 77% | -5.2% |
| Terrace Marshall | 2022 | 6.4 | 77% | -15.6% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2020 | 9.9 | 74% | 0% |
| Elijah Moore | 2022 | 6.3 | 73% | +0.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 2, pick 33 by BUF |
| College | Florida St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 213 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
His best game was Week 1 against BAL — 25.2 PPR on 11 targets and a 24.4% target share, in a game that finished 41-40. His worst was Week 14 against CIN at 3.6, on 3 targets, final score 39-34. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.7; in the 8 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 8.53, 6.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 25.2 | 8 | 11 | 112 | 1 | 24.4% | 88% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 5.6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 12% | 51% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-21 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14.8% | 75% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 7.5 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 18.2% | 73% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 10.3 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 23.3% | 62% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-24 | 4.1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 23.1% | 86% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 17.4% | 73% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | 68% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 13.6 | 3 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 20.5% | 62% |
| 13 | PIT | 26-7 | 8.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 13% | 45% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.1% | 28% |
| 18 | NYJ | 35-8 | 8.9 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 14.3% | 81% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 59 |
| Receiving yards | 404 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 8.53 |
| Yards per target | 6.85 |
| Catch rate | 64.41% |
| Snap share | 66% |
| Target share | 16.68% |
| Air-yards share | 22.79% |
| WOPR | 0.41 |
| RACR | 0.898 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 88 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.3% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.72 |
The offense threw it 495 times. He took 12.32% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman ← | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 55 | 8.5 | 6.45 | 16.89% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 4 | 8.9 | 12.25 | 14.3% |
5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 42% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.6 in those and 10.7 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against SEA — 18 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.9% target share, in a game that finished 31-10. His worst was Week 2 against MIA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 31-10. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 6 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.2 points per game. He scored 8.58, 3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.24 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 9.1 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 21.7% | 73% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 91% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 9.4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3.3% | 31% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 8.1 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 11.9 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 17.2% | 62% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 17.4% | 64% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 16.5 | 4 | 7 | 125 | 0 | 21.9% | 75% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 | 21.9% | 83% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 5.1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5.6% | 79% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | 64 | 0 | 6.3% | 63% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7.4% | 66% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 11.7 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 25.9% | 90% |
| 18 | NE | 16-23 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 32.3% | 97% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 57 |
| Receiving yards | 556 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 9 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 8.58 |
| Yards per target | 9.75 |
| Catch rate | 50.88% |
| Yards per carry | 9 |
| Snap share | 72.85% |
| Target share | 15.48% |
| Air-yards share | 27.2% |
| WOPR | 0.423 |
| RACR | 0.722 |
| Average depth of target | 15.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.8 |
| Total YAC | 215 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.94 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.24 |
The offense threw it 520 times. He took 11.52% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman ← | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 47 | 8.79 | 11.17 | 14.08% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 10 | 6 | 3.1 | 32.3% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 57.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.62 in those and 6.83 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Keon Coleman →