Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.48 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.8, usage worth 5.8.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| ESPN | 169.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.8 |
| FFA | 222 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE29 |
Our board has him at 79.9 points, 5.3 per game — 29.7 catches, 310 yards, 3.2 TDs. That is TE5, 216 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.5 points per game to a ceiling of 9.3, with the median at 5.3. Boom rate 75%, bust rate 53%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 169.8 on consensus and our board has him 216. We rank him 46.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7.4%, with a bear case of 6.4% and a bull case of 8.1% and a full range of 4.7% to 9.4%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| DJ Moore | 17.1% |
| Khalil Shakir | 16.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 14.4% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.7% |
| James Cook | 9.4% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~28, prior share 9.9%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 8.0%, p25-p75 [5.1%, 9.9%], tails [0.0%, 13.7%]. Closest comps: Foster Moreau 2021→2022 (LV: 10.3%→11.4%); Jack Doyle 2020→2021 (IND: 11.8%→9.5%); Jack Doyle 2021→2022 (IND: 10.4%→0.0%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 9.9% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 8.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | Tyler Kroft | +9.1 |
| 2021 | 2 | Tommy Sweeney | +2.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +35.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2024 | 6.4 | 75% | -14.1% |
| Jonnu Smith | 2023 | 7.3 | 73% | +126.8% |
| Will Dissly | 2024 | 7.3 | 72% | -27.9% |
| Gerald Everett | 2023 | 7.4 | 66% | -55.8% |
| Mike Gesicki | 2023 | 4.4 | 66% | +118.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 3, pick 96 by BUF |
| College | Mississippi |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 254 lb |
| Vertical | 34.5″ |
| 3-cone | 7.12s |
| Shuttle | 4.27s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 19% |
| Bust rate | 17.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1.2 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Calf, Hand, Foot, Wrist |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.25 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against NE — 18.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 35-31. His worst was Week 4 against NO at 0, on 1 targets, final score 31-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 8 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 6.48, 12% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.4% | 56% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 20% | 55% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 41% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 56% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-24 | 8.9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 7.7% | 81% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4.3% | 43% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4% | 48% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10.3% | 68% |
| 11 | TB | 44-32 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10% | 77% |
| 12 | HOU | 19-23 | 4.7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12.5% | 86% |
| 13 | PIT | 26-7 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 17.4% | 72% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 17.3 | 6 | 7 | 93 | 0 | 25.9% | 55% |
| 15 | NE | 35-31 | 18.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 15.4% | 64% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.1% | 68% |
| 17 | PHI | 12-13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 15.2% | 63% |
| 18 | NYJ | 35-8 | 10.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 7.1% | 5% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 417 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 6.48 |
| Yards per target | 8.51 |
| Catch rate | 73.47% |
| Snap share | 58.63% |
| Target share | 11.03% |
| Air-yards share | 12.36% |
| WOPR | 0.251 |
| RACR | 1.591 |
| Average depth of target | 6.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 183 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.7% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
The offense threw it 495 times. He took 10.23% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15 | 47 | 6.22 | 8.36 | 11.29% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 10.4 | 12 | 7.1% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.86 in those and 7.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against NYJ — 8.2 PPR on 1 targets and a 4.3% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 4 against BAL at 1, on 1 targets, final score 10-35. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.1; in the 8 decided by more, 4.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.1 points per game. He scored 4.22, 2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 3.3 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 8.7% | 58% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.7% | 52% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 46% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4.3% | 61% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9.4% | 56% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 6.3% | 54% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.6% | 65% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 8.6% | 70% |
| 11 | KC | 30-21 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 15.8% | 84% |
| 13 | SF | 35-10 | 7.6 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0 | 11.1% | 48% |
| 14 | LA | 42-44 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.7% | 82% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 6.2 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 9.4% | 73% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7.4% | 56% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11.1% | 49% |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 311 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.22 |
| Yards per target | 9.42 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Snap share | 61% |
| Target share | 7.91% |
| Air-yards share | 10.39% |
| WOPR | 0.192 |
| RACR | 0.919 |
| Average depth of target | 8.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Total YAC | 94 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 9.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 34.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.37 in those and 4.15 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against MIA — 10.2 PPR on 3 targets and a 8.1% target share, in a game that finished 21-14. His worst was Week 3 against WAS at 2.1, on 3 targets, final score 37-3. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.8; in the 3 decided by more, 4.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5.46, 5.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 16-22 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10.3% | 84% |
| 2 | LV | 38-10 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 13.9% | 71% |
| 3 | WAS | 37-3 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9.4% | 60% |
| 4 | MIA | 48-20 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | 50% |
| 5 | JAX | 20-25 | 4.7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 16.7% | 70% |
| 6 | NYG | 14-9 | 4.7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 20.7% | 75% |
| 7 | NE | 25-29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7.7% | 63% |
| 14 | KC | 20-17 | 6.6 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 8.3% | 47% |
| 16 | LAC | 24-22 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 9.5% | 47% |
| 18 | MIA | 21-14 | 10.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 8.1% | 47% |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 186 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.46 |
| Yards per target | 5.17 |
| Catch rate | 61.11% |
| Snap share | 61.4% |
| Target share | 10.86% |
| Air-yards share | 7.48% |
| WOPR | 0.215 |
| RACR | 1.261 |
| Average depth of target | 7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Total YAC | 96 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 69.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.5% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.03 |
The offense threw it 579 times. He took 6.61% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.36% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 16.7% |
| Gabe Davis | 14.86% |
| James Cook | 9.91% |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.26% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 6.61% |
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 26.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.77 in those and 5.76 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against MIA — 21.8 PPR on 8 targets and a 21.1% target share, in a game that finished 32-29. His worst was Week 13 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.6; in the 6 decided by more, 6.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 9.05, 17.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.45 expected, a gap of 2.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 31-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.5% | 86% |
| 2 | TEN | 41-7 | 8.1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 12.8% | 69% |
| 3 | MIA | 19-21 | 6.5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 7% | 71% |
| 4 | BAL | 23-20 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 17.6% | 75% |
| 6 | KC | 24-20 | 12.7 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 7.9% | 85% |
| 8 | GB | 27-17 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 12% | 88% |
| 9 | NYJ | 17-20 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 12.1% | 85% |
| 10 | MIN | 30-33 | 9.7 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 14.6% | 81% |
| 11 | CLE | 31-23 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 29.2% | 80% |
| 12 | DET | 28-25 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5.1% | 78% |
| 13 | NE | 24-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 84% |
| 14 | NYJ | 20-12 | 14.1 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 25.9% | 86% |
| 15 | MIA | 32-29 | 21.8 | 6 | 8 | 98 | 1 | 21.1% | 82% |
| 16 | CHI | 35-13 | 12.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 20% | 75% |
| 18 | NE | 35-23 | 9.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6.5% | 81% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 517 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 9.05 |
| Yards per target | 7.95 |
| Catch rate | 73.85% |
| Snap share | 80.4% |
| Target share | 13.42% |
| Air-yards share | 11.25% |
| WOPR | 0.28 |
| RACR | 1.453 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 193 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.37 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.3% |
| End-zone target share | 25.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.55 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 11.8% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 27.95% |
| Gabe Davis | 16.88% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 11.8% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 11.8% |
| Devin Singletary | 9.44% |
| James Cook | 5.81% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 16.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.47 in those and 10.56 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against HOU — 20.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 25.8% target share, in a game that finished 40-0. His worst was Week 17 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 29-15. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 11 decided by more, 11.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 10.94, 37.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.32 expected, a gap of 2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 16-23 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 8.3% | 56% |
| 2 | MIA | 35-0 | 9.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 10.3% | 83% |
| 3 | WAS | 43-21 | 14.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 11.6% | 78% |
| 4 | HOU | 40-0 | 20.7 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 25.8% | 81% |
| 5 | KC | 38-20 | 20.7 | 3 | 4 | 117 | 1 | 16.7% | 96% |
| 6 | TEN | 31-34 | 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 6.7% | 79% |
| 10 | NYJ | 45-17 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.6% | 84% |
| 11 | IND | 15-41 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 | 25.6% | 98% |
| 12 | NO | 31-6 | 18.2 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 11.5% | 91% |
| 13 | NE | 10-14 | 3.4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 20% | 97% |
| 14 | TB | 27-33 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 17.6% | 96% |
| 15 | CAR | 31-14 | 7.8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 16.1% | 90% |
| 16 | NE | 33-21 | 9.1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 7% | 100% |
| 17 | ATL | 29-15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 88% |
| 18 | NYJ | 27-10 | 8.3 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 11.1% | 91% |
| Receptions | 49 |
| Targets | 71 |
| Receiving yards | 587 |
| Rushing yards | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 10.94 |
| Yards per target | 8.27 |
| Catch rate | 69.01% |
| Snap share | 87.2% |
| Target share | 13.35% |
| Air-yards share | 11.51% |
| WOPR | 0.281 |
| RACR | 2.087 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Total YAC | 277 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 127.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 21 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.4% |
| End-zone target share | 19.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.32 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.68 |
The offense threw it 655 times. He took 11.41% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 26.37% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.01% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11.58% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 11.41% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.13% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.04% |
9 of his 15 games were blowouts, 71.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13 in those and 9.5 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against SF — 12.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 10.8% target share, in a game that finished 34-24. His worst was Week 5 against TEN at 2.5, on 3 targets, final score 16-42. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.3; in the 8 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.2 points per game. He scored 6.07, 5.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 27-17 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 6.7% | 64% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-28 | 2.6 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 8.6% | 36% |
| 4 | LV | 30-23 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9.4% | 48% |
| 5 | TEN | 16-42 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 35% |
| 10 | ARI | 30-32 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 8.9% | 70% |
| 12 | LAC | 27-17 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4.2% | 61% |
| 13 | SF | 34-24 | 12.7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 10.8% | 67% |
| 14 | PIT | 26-15 | 5.4 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 16.7% | 80% |
| 15 | DEN | 48-19 | 11.6 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 10.5% | 55% |
| 16 | NE | 38-9 | 8.1 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 10.5% | 64% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-26 | 4.9 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 21.6% | 72% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 288 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.07 |
| Yards per target | 6.55 |
| Catch rate | 54.55% |
| Snap share | 59.27% |
| Target share | 10.42% |
| Air-yards share | 8.26% |
| WOPR | 0.215 |
| RACR | 1.024 |
| Average depth of target | 8.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 160 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.4% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
The offense threw it 595 times. He took 7.72% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 29.12% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.77% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.88% |
| John Brown | 9.12% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.77% |
| Dawson Knox ← | 7.72% |
4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 40.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.78 in those and 3.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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