Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.77 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 202.9, usage worth 3.2.
26 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 235.2 |
| ESPN | 170.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 187.3 |
| FFA | 177 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB121 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 45.7 picks |
Our board has him at 81.3 points, 5.1 per game — 333 rushing yards, 3.1 rushing TDs, 13.2 catches. That is RB6, 176 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.2 points per game to a ceiling of 10, with the median at 5.1. Boom rate 96%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 202.9 on consensus and our board has him 176. We rank him 26.9 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| James Cook | 67.6% |
| Ray Davis ← | 19.9% |
| Ty Johnson | 11% |
| Frank Gore Jr | 1.5% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
| Projected carry share | 19.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 4.8 |
| Projected carries, full season | 81 |
| Last season, carries per game | 3.1 |
That is an increase of 1.7 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 29.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.1 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -7.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Ray Davis study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -27.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 2024 | 4.2 | 76% | +42.5% |
| Chris Brooks | 2024 | 3.8 | 72% | +33.5% |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2024 | 5.6 | 71% | +49.9% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2022 | 3.1 | 71% | -21.3% |
| Pierre Strong | 2024 | 2.7 | 70% | -41.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 4, pick 128 by BUF |
| College | Kentucky |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Career PPR per game | 5.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 25% |
| Bust rate | 46.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.14 |
His best game was Week 18 against NYJ — 25.4 PPR on 23 touches and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 35-8. His worst was Week 14 against CIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 39-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.2; in the 9 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 3.77, 15.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 41-40 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.2% | 12% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 7% |
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-24 | 9.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7.7% | 4% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 1.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 4.3% | 24% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 0.8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 5.1% | 10% |
| 11 | TB | 44-32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | HOU | 19-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 13 | PIT | 26-7 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 14 | CIN | 39-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 15 | NE | 35-31 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 9% |
| 16 | CLE | 23-20 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11.1% | 16% |
| 17 | PHI | 12-13 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | 13% |
| 18 | NYJ | 35-8 | 25.4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 21 | 151 | 1 | 7.1% | 64% |
| Receptions | 10 |
| Targets | 13 |
| Receiving yards | 86 |
| Carries | 58 |
| Rushing yards | 275 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.77 |
| Yards per target | 6.62 |
| Catch rate | 76.92% |
| Yards per carry | 4.74 |
| Snap share | 14.29% |
| Target share | 2.82% |
| Air-yards share | 0.36% |
| WOPR | 0.046 |
| RACR | -0.129 |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.3 |
| Total YAC | 99 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.31 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.1 |
The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16 | 11 | 2.42 | 5.73 | 2.56% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 25.4 | 11.5 | 7.1% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 56.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.28 in those and 2.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 6 against NYJ — 18.2 PPR on 23 touches and a 13% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 14 against LA at 0, on 0 touches, final score 42-44. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 9 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 6.83, 17.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.97 expected, a gap of 1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4.3% | 10% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 5.6% | 31% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 3.3% | 19% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9% | 3% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 18.2 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 20 | 97 | 0 | 13% | 58% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 11.7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 3.1% | 24% |
| 8 | SEA | 31-10 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 70 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 5.6% | 14% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 11 | KC | 30-21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 13 | SF | 35-10 | 13.7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 1 | 5.6% | 33% |
| 14 | LA | 42-44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 6.3% | 26% |
| 16 | NE | 24-21 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 3.7% | 24% |
| 17 | NYJ | 40-14 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 3.7% | 23% |
| 18 | NE | 16-23 | 14.5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 64 | 1 | 9.7% | 52% |
| Receptions | 17 |
| Targets | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 189 |
| Carries | 113 |
| Rushing yards | 442 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 6.83 |
| Yards per target | 9.95 |
| Catch rate | 89.47% |
| Yards per carry | 3.91 |
| Snap share | 24.35% |
| Target share | 4.16% |
| Air-yards share | 0.42% |
| WOPR | 0.065 |
| RACR | 3.604 |
| Average depth of target | 0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.5 |
| Total YAC | 164 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 147.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.33 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.03 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.71 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 39 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 46 |
| Target share | 39 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 46 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16 | 16 | 6.35 | 11.75 | 3.82% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 3 | 14.5 | 0.33 | 9.7% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 38.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.4 in those and 8.7 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Ray Davis →