Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.01 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 5.8.
30 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 312 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE50 |
Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| DK Metcalf | 21% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 13.9% |
| Germie Bernard | 13.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 13.1% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.1% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.2 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | Hunter Henry | +4.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -49.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, TEs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2024 | 6.4 | 56% | -14.1% |
| Mike Gesicki | 2024 | 8.8 | 50% | -15.8% |
| Austin Hooper | 2023 | 3 | 49% | +46.1% |
| Gerald Everett | 2023 | 7.4 | 48% | -55.8% |
| Dawson Knox | 2024 | 4.2 | 48% | +13.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 3, pick 100 by TEN |
| College | Florida International |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 248 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| Shuttle | 4.18s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 16% |
| Bust rate | 34.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Knee, Ankle, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.01 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against NYJ — 12.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 20.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-32. His worst was Week 14 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 7 decided by more, 4.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 5.01, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | 12.5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 20.7% | 66% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 6.7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 12.9% | 56% |
| 3 | NE | 21-14 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13.6% | 83% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 2.6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13.6% | 25% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13.8% | 69% |
| 7 | CIN | 31-33 | 11.8 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 18.2% | 70% |
| 8 | GB | 25-35 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.4% | 60% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 14.3% | 40% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7.1% | 67% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.9% | 54% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9.7% | 49% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9.1% | 53% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 52% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 10.6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 7.4% | 29% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 2.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 38% |
| 17 | CLE | 6-13 | 7.7 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 13.5% | 41% |
| 18 | BAL | 26-24 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4.5% | 44% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 54 |
| Receiving yards | 222 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 70 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.01 |
| Yards per target | 4.11 |
| Catch rate | 70.37% |
| Yards per carry | 7.78 |
| Snap share | 52.71% |
| Target share | 10.61% |
| Air-yards share | 6.62% |
| WOPR | 0.206 |
| RACR | 1.74 |
| Average depth of target | 4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.1 |
| Total YAC | 179 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.1% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 10.38% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith ← | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15 | 49 | 5.29 | 4.1 | 10.91% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 8.3% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 1.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.8 in those and 5.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against LV — 28.1 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-19. His worst was Week 4 against TEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 12-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 9 decided by more, 14.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 13.08, 13.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 5.66 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-17 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5.6% | 28% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-31 | 11.3 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 18.9% | 42% |
| 3 | SEA | 3-24 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9.7% | 38% |
| 4 | TEN | 12-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 42% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 11.1 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 25.8% | 41% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 22.6 | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 31.8% | 49% |
| 8 | ARI | 27-28 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 15.8% | 66% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 9.6 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 22.2% | 69% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 7.5 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 14.3% | 43% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 28.1 | 6 | 8 | 101 | 2 | 22.9% | 81% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 23.7 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 1 | 27.5% | 69% |
| 13 | GB | 17-30 | 21.3 | 10 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 23.9% | 72% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 13.4 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 8.9% | 64% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 19.8 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 1 | 28.2% | 66% |
| 16 | SF | 29-17 | 12.2 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 19.4% | 55% |
| 17 | CLE | 20-3 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 16.7% | 48% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | 18.6 | 9 | 12 | 56 | 1 | 32.4% | 60% |
| Receptions | 88 |
| Targets | 111 |
| Receiving yards | 884 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 13.08 |
| Yards per target | 7.96 |
| Catch rate | 79.28% |
| Yards per carry | -0.5 |
| Snap share | 54.88% |
| Target share | 19.34% |
| Air-yards share | 14.36% |
| WOPR | 0.391 |
| RACR | 2.975 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Total YAC | 510 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 123.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.51 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.2% |
| End-zone target share | 19.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.66 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.34 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 13 |
| Target share | 7 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 13 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 19.96% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith ← | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 11 | 76 | 14.05 | 8.24 | 18.87% |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 25 | 10.32 | 5.76 | 19.92% |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.8 | 6 | 9.7% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 7 | 22.6 | 13.71 | 31.8% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.08 in those and 11.46 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against MIN — 21 PPR on 6 targets and a 17.6% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 17 against CHI at 0, on 4 targets, final score 17-37. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.1; in the 7 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.1 points per game. He scored 7.31, 2.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 24-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 50% |
| 2 | GB | 25-24 | 8.7 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 20% | 67% |
| 3 | DET | 6-20 | 8.7 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 21.1% | 72% |
| 4 | JAX | 7-23 | 15.5 | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 20% | 55% |
| 5 | HOU | 21-19 | 10.7 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 18.4% | 64% |
| 6 | WAS | 16-24 | 13.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 11.4% | 54% |
| 7 | TB | 16-13 | 5.7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | 55% |
| 8 | TEN | 23-28 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 71% |
| 9 | MIN | 28-31 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 100 | 1 | 17.6% | 57% |
| 10 | ARI | 23-25 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15.8% | 44% |
| 12 | NO | 24-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 13 | NYJ | 13-8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12% | 40% |
| 14 | TB | 25-29 | 6.7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 17.9% | 69% |
| 15 | CAR | 7-9 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 10.5% | 33% |
| 16 | IND | 29-10 | 7.2 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 18.8% | 69% |
| 17 | CHI | 17-37 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 78% |
| 18 | NO | 17-48 | 11.9 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 8.8% | 62% |
| Receptions | 50 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 582 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 7.31 |
| Yards per target | 8.31 |
| Catch rate | 71.43% |
| Snap share | 57.35% |
| Target share | 12.99% |
| Air-yards share | 10.53% |
| WOPR | 0.269 |
| RACR | 1.708 |
| Average depth of target | 6.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 357 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.53 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.8% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
The offense threw it 530 times. He took 13.89% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 21.83% |
| Kyle Pitts | 17.86% |
| Bijan Robinson | 17.06% |
| Jonnu Smith ← | 13.89% |
| Mack Hollins | 5.95% |
| Van Jefferson | 5.56% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12 | 50 | 7.72 | 8.72 | 12.76% |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 20 | 6.32 | 7.3 | 13.54% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.37 in those and 8.09 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against NYJ — 8.5 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 10-3. His worst was Week 14 against ARI at 0, on 2 targets, final score 27-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.4; in the 7 decided by more, 4.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 4.33, 21.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.01 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 7-20 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13.3% | 68% |
| 2 | PIT | 17-14 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 57% |
| 3 | BAL | 26-37 | 6.5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 12.5% | 48% |
| 6 | CLE | 38-15 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 6.5% | 43% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-33 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10.7% | 33% |
| 8 | NYJ | 22-17 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 12.5% | 64% |
| 9 | IND | 26-3 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 10.3% | 54% |
| 11 | NYJ | 10-3 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 14.8% | 54% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-24 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.9% | 31% |
| 14 | ARI | 27-13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 47% |
| 15 | LV | 24-30 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 58% |
| 16 | CIN | 18-22 | 5.1 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12.9% | 57% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 38 |
| Receiving yards | 245 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 4.33 |
| Yards per target | 6.45 |
| Catch rate | 71.05% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 51.17% |
| Target share | 10.36% |
| Air-yards share | 3.66% |
| WOPR | 0.182 |
| RACR | 2.514 |
| Average depth of target | 3.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.7 |
| Total YAC | 200 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.8% |
| End-zone target share | 5.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.01 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.01 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.06 |
The offense threw it 540 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 18.71% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 17.15% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.5% |
| Nelson Agholor | 10.33% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 9.36% |
| DeVante Parker | 9.16% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 10 | 33 | 4.25 | 5.45 | 10.71% |
| Bailey Zappe | 2 | 5 | 4.75 | 13 | 8.6% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 28.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.87 in those and 4.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against TB — 10.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 11.9% target share, in a game that finished 17-19. His worst was Week 16 against BUF at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-33. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 10 decided by more, 3.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 4.21, 14.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.33 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 16-17 | 9.8 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 13.2% | 73% |
| 2 | NYJ | 25-6 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17.9% | 49% |
| 3 | NO | 13-28 | 1.4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 11.8% | 42% |
| 4 | TB | 17-19 | 10.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 11.9% | 47% |
| 5 | HOU | 25-22 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7.1% | 63% |
| 6 | DAL | 29-35 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9.5% | 72% |
| 7 | NYJ | 54-13 | 7.7 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 12.5% | 22% |
| 8 | LAC | 27-24 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5.9% | 64% |
| 9 | CAR | 24-6 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11.1% | 45% |
| 11 | ATL | 25-0 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7.7% | 52% |
| 12 | TEN | 36-13 | 8.8 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 12.5% | 57% |
| 13 | BUF | 14-10 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 33.3% | 76% |
| 15 | IND | 17-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6.8% | 25% |
| 16 | BUF | 21-33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 33% |
| 17 | JAX | 50-10 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | 58% |
| 18 | MIA | 24-33 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 294 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 40 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.21 |
| Yards per target | 6.53 |
| Catch rate | 62.22% |
| Yards per carry | 4.44 |
| Snap share | 51.13% |
| Target share | 10.26% |
| Air-yards share | 9.13% |
| WOPR | 0.218 |
| RACR | 1.784 |
| Average depth of target | 5.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.2 |
| Total YAC | 232 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 70 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.61 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 6.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.33 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.33 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.19 |
The offense threw it 535 times. He took 8.59% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 24.05% |
| Hunter Henry | 14.31% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 13.36% |
| Nelson Agholor | 12.21% |
| Brandon Bolden | 9.35% |
| Jonnu Smith ← | 8.59% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 46.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.22 in those and 5.45 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against JAX — 24.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 33-30. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 1.8, on 2 targets, final score 41-38. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.8; in the 6 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8 points per game. He scored 10.01, 19.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.47 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 16-14 | 13.6 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 17.5% | 73% |
| 2 | JAX | 33-30 | 24.4 | 4 | 5 | 84 | 2 | 20.8% | 87% |
| 3 | MIN | 31-30 | 11.1 | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 24.2% | 88% |
| 5 | BUF | 42-16 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 25% | 86% |
| 6 | HOU | 42-36 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 4.9% | 39% |
| 7 | PIT | 24-27 | 1.9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 13.3% | 70% |
| 8 | CIN | 20-31 | 4.9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 6.9% | 79% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 11.2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 9.5% | 95% |
| 10 | IND | 17-34 | 9.5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 22.2% | 72% |
| 11 | BAL | 30-24 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 18.8% | 74% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-10 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8.7% | 62% |
| 15 | DET | 46-25 | 10.2 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 19.2% | 93% |
| 16 | GB | 14-40 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 28% | 73% |
| 17 | HOU | 41-38 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7.4% | 58% |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 448 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 10.01 |
| Yards per target | 6.89 |
| Catch rate | 63.08% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 74.93% |
| Target share | 16.17% |
| Air-yards share | 10.66% |
| WOPR | 0.317 |
| RACR | 1.743 |
| Average depth of target | 5.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Total YAC | 238 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.4% |
| End-zone target share | 29% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.53 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.44 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 14.1% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 22.99% |
| Corey Davis | 19.96% |
| Jonnu Smith ← | 14.1% |
| Anthony Firkser | 11.5% |
| Adam Humphries | 7.59% |
| Derrick Henry | 6.72% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 40.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 9.79 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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