Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.67 points per game in 2025, usage worth 6.4.
Our board has him at 120.5 points, 7.5 per game — 677 rushing yards, 5.1 rushing TDs, 9.9 catches. That is RB5, 118 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.5 points per game to a ceiling of 13.8, with the median at 7.5. Boom rate 84%, bust rate 53%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Bhaysul Tuten | 50.8% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. ← | 38.2% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 8% |
| DeeJay dallas | 2.9% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 38.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 8.8 |
| Projected carries, full season | 150 |
| Last season, carries per game | 9.3 |
That is a reduction of 0.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -2.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +6.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 2022 | 9.1 | 65% | +4% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2024 | 6.2 | 63% | +30.3% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2023 | 8.1 | 62% | +19.8% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2022 | 7.9 | 60% | +48.7% |
| Boston Scott | 2021 | 9 | 60% | -3.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 6, pick 193 by WAS |
| College | Kentucky |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 217 lb |
His best game was Week 18 against PHI — 15.3 PPR on 17 touches and a 5.3% target share, in a game that finished 24-17. His worst was Week 8 against KC at 0.2, on 1 touches, final score 7-28. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 8 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 7.67, 19.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | LV | 41-24 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 4 | ATL | 27-34 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 5 | LAC | 27-10 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 7 | DAL | 22-44 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0% | — |
| 8 | KC | 7-28 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 9 | SEA | 14-38 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 0% | — |
| 10 | DET | 22-44 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0% | — |
| 11 | MIA | 13-16 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 79 | 0 | 3.4% | — |
| 13 | DEN | 26-27 | 10.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 2.2% | — |
| 14 | MIN | 0-31 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 16 | PHI | 18-29 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 1 | 5% | — |
| 18 | PHI | 24-17 | 15.3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 | 65 | 1 | 5.3% | — |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 30 |
| Carries | 112 |
| Rushing yards | 500 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.67 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 4.46 |
| Target share | 1.32% |
| Air-yards share | 0.35% |
| WOPR | 0.023 |
| RACR | 1.667 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.27 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 36.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.1 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 49 |
| Target share | 49 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 49 |
The offense threw it 469 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel | 22.92% |
| Zach Ertz | 16.67% |
| Terry McLaurin | 13.89% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.41% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7.18% |
| Chris Moore | 5.32% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 3 | 7.3 | 4 | 1.51% |
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 0 | 6.4 | — | 0% |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15.3 | 18 | 5.3% |
7 of his 12 games were blowouts, 40.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.33 in those and 10.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against TEN — 15.4 PPR on 13 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-19. His worst was Week 18 against DAL at 0, on 0 touches, final score 23-19. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 4.5, 31.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NYG | 27-22 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 10 | PIT | 27-28 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 13 | TEN | 42-19 | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 94 | 1 | 0% | — |
| 15 | NO | 20-19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 16 | PHI | 36-33 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 17 | ATL | 30-24 | 9.8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 2.9% | — |
| 18 | DAL | 23-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | — |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 12 |
| Carries | 35 |
| Rushing yards | 173 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.5 |
| Yards per target | 12 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.94 |
| Target share | 0.41% |
| Air-yards share | 0.06% |
| WOPR | 0.007 |
| RACR | 1.714 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.79 |
The offense threw it 525 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 23.26% |
| Zach Ertz | 18.09% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.72% |
| Noah Brown | 11.13% |
| Austin Ekeler | 8.15% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.95% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 6 | 1 | 5.25 | 12 | 0.48% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 48.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.4 in those and 2.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against NYJ — 19.5 PPR on 11 touches and a 3.1% target share, in a game that finished 28-30. His worst was Week 9 against NE at 0, on 0 touches, final score 20-17. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.9; in the 3 decided by more, 2.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 4.21, 14.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 20-16 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 6 | ATL | 24-16 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 7 | NYG | 7-14 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 9 | NE | 20-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 11 | NYG | 19-31 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 2.4% | — |
| 12 | DAL | 10-45 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 13 | MIA | 15-45 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 15 | LA | 20-28 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 16 | NYJ | 28-30 | 19.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 58 | 2 | 3.1% | — |
| Receptions | 2 |
| Targets | 2 |
| Receiving yards | 12 |
| Carries | 51 |
| Rushing yards | 247 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.21 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.84 |
| Target share | 0.61% |
| Air-yards share | -0.3% |
| WOPR | 0.007 |
| RACR | -0.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.39 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 12.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.55 |
The offense threw it 636 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 22% |
| Curtis Samuel | 15.17% |
| Jahan Dotson | 13.83% |
| Logan Thomas | 13% |
| Antonio Gibson | 9.83% |
| Brian Robinson | 7.17% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 13.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.5 in those and 4.85 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Chris Rodriguez Jr. →