Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.91 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 86.1, usage worth 10.6.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 71 |
| ESPN | 106.3 |
| YAHOO | 84.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 64.6 |
| CBS | 82.3 |
| FFA | 78 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR35 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 14.7 picks |
Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr | 18.8% |
| Parker Washington | 14.5% |
| Brenton Strange | 11% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 8.8% |
| Josh Cameron | 6.8% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +11.3 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Parker Washington | +6.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 2023 | 11.3 | 70% | -12.6% |
| George Pickens | 2022 | 9.8 | 68% | +17.2% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2021 | 8.5 | 67% | +18% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2021 | 10 | 66% | +6.6% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2022 | 15.2 | 65% | +15.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 23 by JAX |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 209 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 126″ |
| Career PPR per game | 14.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 32% |
| Bust rate | 24% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against SEA — 23 PPR on 10 targets and a 23.8% target share, in a game that finished 12-20. His worst was Week 16 against DEN at 3.8, on 3 targets, final score 34-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 7 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 9.91, 6.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 24.1% | 86% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-31 | 8.9 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 0 | 29.3% | 94% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-10 | 7.5 | 2 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 15.8% | 81% |
| 4 | SF | 26-21 | 10.6 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 23.3% | 79% |
| 5 | KC | 31-28 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 24% | 93% |
| 6 | SEA | 12-20 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 | 23.8% | 80% |
| 7 | LA | 7-35 | 6.1 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 14.9% | 66% |
| 9 | LV | 30-29 | 8.5 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 15.2% | 65% |
| 13 | TEN | 25-3 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | 75% |
| 14 | IND | 36-19 | 11.7 | 3 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 19.4% | 83% |
| 15 | NYJ | 48-20 | 17.1 | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 25% | 77% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-20 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8.6% | 73% |
| 17 | IND | 23-17 | 7.9 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 18.9% | 78% |
| 18 | TEN | 41-7 | 7.9 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 16.1% | 57% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 91 |
| Receiving yards | 707 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 21 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.91 |
| Yards per target | 7.77 |
| Catch rate | 52.75% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 77.64% |
| Target share | 19.31% |
| Air-yards share | 31.61% |
| WOPR | 0.511 |
| RACR | 0.578 |
| Average depth of target | 14.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.4 |
| Total YAC | 159 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 81.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.7% |
| End-zone target share | 16.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.48 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 39 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 44 |
| Target share | 32 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 44 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 18.13% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas ← | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 34.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.52 in those and 11.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 32.5 PPR on 14 targets and a 32.6% target share, in a game that finished 25-32. His worst was Week 10 against MIN at 3.2, on 3 targets, final score 7-12. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.9; in the 4 decided by more, 12.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 16.71, 20.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 4.83 expected, a gap of 3.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 17-20 | 14.7 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 21.1% | 77% |
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 11.4 | 2 | 4 | 94 | 0 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 9.8 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 20.5% | 73% |
| 4 | HOU | 20-24 | 21.9 | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 28.1% | 76% |
| 5 | IND | 37-34 | 23.2 | 5 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 23.5% | 64% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 5.7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 17.1% | 79% |
| 7 | NE | 32-16 | 22.1 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 25% | 66% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 13.3% | 51% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 6.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13.3% | 91% |
| 10 | MIN | 7-12 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 14.3% | 86% |
| 11 | DET | 6-52 | 13.6 | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 25% | 94% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 18.7 | 4 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 23.8% | 87% |
| 14 | TEN | 10-6 | 16.6 | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 40% | 80% |
| 15 | NYJ | 25-32 | 32.5 | 10 | 14 | 105 | 2 | 32.6% | 88% |
| 16 | LV | 14-19 | 28.2 | 9 | 13 | 132 | 1 | 37.1% | 90% |
| 17 | TEN | 20-13 | 23.9 | 7 | 10 | 91 | 1 | 47.6% | 84% |
| 18 | IND | 23-26 | 17.3 | 7 | 11 | 103 | 0 | 35.5% | 90% |
| Receptions | 87 |
| Targets | 133 |
| Receiving yards | 1,282 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 48 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 16.71 |
| Yards per target | 9.64 |
| Catch rate | 65.41% |
| Yards per carry | 8 |
| Snap share | 79.35% |
| Target share | 25.45% |
| Air-yards share | 36.38% |
| WOPR | 0.637 |
| RACR | 0.95 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 562 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.4% |
| End-zone target share | 32.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.17 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 51 |
| Target share | 18 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 51 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 25.48% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas ← | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 53 | 14.44 | 11.23 | 19.63% |
| Mac Jones | 8 | 80 | 19.25 | 8.59 | 31.99% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 10.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.7 in those and 17.91 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Brian Thomas →