What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 94 overall.
Trevor Lawrence scored 357.56 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 345.1. That gap of 12.5 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 94 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 5: rushing yards went up from 8 to 25.2, a 214.4% change, at 3.95 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the play-calling changed. He also missed Week 8.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a breakout built on new volume. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 19.86 points per game on 590 pass attempts — a 36.3% jump on his 2024 rate with JAX. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the throws he made, where they went and how far downfield they traveled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 345.1 points — 19.2 per game. He scored 12.5 more than that, a 3.6% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 4,166 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns, plus 402 rushing yards and 4.4 rushing touchdowns, and he cleared it.
Against the expected line, he finished 4,214 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 390 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns — against 4,166, 28, 402, 4.4 expected.
59% of the entire gain came from rushing touchdowns alone. He hit 205% of his expected rushing touchdowns, against 101% of his expected passing yards and 114% of his expected passing touchdowns and 97% of his expected rushing yards.
3 of his 17 games produced 25 or more points: Week 5 against KC (26.24), Week 15 against NYJ (44.3), Week 16 against DEN (31.16). Strip them and the remaining 14 games average 16.9.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 2 games came in under 10 points, including Week 3 against HOU (7.78) and Week 10 against HOU (9.82).
The three largest overshoots — Week 15 (+25.4), Week 16 (+9.7), Week 18 (+7.6) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
Not one of his 5 seasons is flagged as running hot. 2 came in below what the usage justified: 2021 (-38.3%), 2023 (-10.1%). Across all 5 he has scored 148.1 points fewer than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 75 graded prop lines, he has gone over 46.7% of the time. On passing yards specifically the number is 48.0% across 25 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 1.8%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 19.9% rate and he converted at 28.0% — a gap of 8.1 points, which is worth noting.
Across 1,151 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. team implied total (r 0.146) carry.
So the figures worth weighing for him: 590 pass attempts, 39.15 passing EPA, 8.7 air yards per attempt. He was pressured on 21.8% of dropbacks, and put 73.7% of throws on target. He carried it 88 times, taking 24.5% of his team’s goal-line carries — the only replicated floor factor at the position.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 104 games, JAX has come in -0.1 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 51% of weeks.
That is close to neutral — the offense performs about where the market expects, so there is no environment bonus or penalty to apply to him either way.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 342 points, 20.4 per game across 16.8 expected games — 4,211 passing yards, 29.9 passing touchdowns, 364 rushing yards, 4.9 rushing touchdowns. That is QB3, 77 overall, and 21 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
last year's genuine top-10 finish (his best season by a wide margin) is credited specifically to acquiring a true possession/security-blanket weapon mid-season — the offense noticeably clicked immediately after, going on a long win streak. A rushing-TD jump last year is flagged as unlikely to fully repeat since it wasn't backed by a meaningfully higher raw attempt rate.
That is the current read. It has held since 2026-06-05.
It rests on one of our draft principles:
The books do not agree on him. . That 12.5-pick gap between Yahoo and CBS is the practical thing to act on: in a CBS-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 94 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 12.5 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on cbs and earliest on yahoo: sleeper 96.5, espn 95.8, yahoo 85.6, underdog 85.7, cbs 98.1.
He goes at 94 and our board has him 77. That is 17 picks of discount on a QB3 projection — you are getting the QB3 outcome at a price the room has set below it.
The case for: a 34% boom rate; 88 carries of his own, and rushing is the only quarterback signal that survived testing.
The case against: a floor of 16.3 points per game, which is the outcome you are underwriting if the role moves.
The call: take him at his ADP and do not talk yourself out of it.
Ask the Coach about Trevor Lawrence Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 75 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.