Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.13 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 60.8, usage worth 9.9.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 51.3 |
| ESPN | 71.9 |
| YAHOO | 60 |
| UNDERDOG | 56.4 |
| CBS | 59.8 |
| FFA | 55 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB24 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 8.5 picks |
Our board has him at 192.6 points, 12 per game — 807 rushing yards, 5.9 rushing TDs, 36 catches. That is RB4, 55 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.2 points per game to a ceiling of 19.9, with the median at 12. Boom rate 66%, bust rate 24%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 60.8 on consensus and our board has him 55. We rank him 5.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
High-upside round-5 RB in an improving Patriots offense (year-2 Drake May, better line). Receiving role is the draw; the rookie-year red flag was pass protection (benched for it), so watch camp - if that's fixed, the explosive role is real.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14New England Patriots returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, rb1. Drake Maye at quarterback, Mike Vrabel as head coach, Josh McDaniels calling it. The offense projects to 30.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.3 rushes.
In: Tommy DeVito (qb2), A.J. Brown (wr1), Romeo Doubs (wr2), Jam Miller (rb3), Lan Larison (rb4), Eli Raridon (te2). Out: Stefon Diggs (wr1), Antonio Gibson (rb3), Austin Hooper (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| TreVeyon Henderson ← | 51.1% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 39.4% |
| Jam Miller | 7% |
| Lan Larison | 2.6% |
What the offense looks like: This is an offense that is only getting better. TreVeyon Henderson COULD become the true featured RB on this high powered offense. AJ Brown could produce 2-3 more years at a VERY high level before fading. Romeo Doubs fits in very well and if his connection builds with Maye, he could be a very viable WR2 in PPR formats.
Key additions: Romeo Doubs WR from GB on 4 year deal, AJ Brown traded to Patriots by Eagles in June 2026 (will be teams WR1 in 2026). Drafted Caleb Lomu 1st round LT. Drafted TE Eli Raridon 3rd round. Drafted RB Jam Miller 7th round.
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs (released), RB Antonio Gibson (released), TE Austin Hooper (signed with Falcons), OT Vederian Lowe signed with 49ers (depth)
Notes: Maye dynasty franchise QB. Patriots signed Romeo Doubs from Packers (huge potential and solid player could be WR2). The Patriots WILL trade for AJ Brown from Eagles & he will be their WR1 next year. He has MASSIVE potential with Drake Maye. Henderson should operate as lead back in 2026, but Vrabel has done strange things with playing time for backs & Stevenson will work in. Henry is still TE1, but drafted Raridon round 3 TE — Vrabel uses TEs.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Drake Maye returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.5 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.7 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 51.1% |
| Projected carries per game | 11.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 201 |
| Last season, carries per game | 10 |
That is an increase of 1.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.3 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: NE rates 24.2 against a league average of 23, 1.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.1 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.5 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full TreVeyon Henderson study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -5.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 2020 | 14.4 | 72% | +4% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2020 | 11.2 | 72% | +3.1% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2020 | 13.5 | 70% | -20.1% |
| Cam Akers | 2020 | 9.3 | 70% | 0% |
| A.J. Dillon | 2021 | 10.9 | 69% | -1.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 2, pick 38 by NWE |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 202 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
His best game was Week 11 against NYJ — 32.3 PPR on 24 touches and a 15.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-14. His worst was Week 7 against TEN at 0.5, on 2 touches, final score 31-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 7 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 12.13, 6.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 13-20 | 11.1 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 13.3% | 35% |
| 2 | MIA | 33-27 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8.7% | 32% |
| 3 | PIT | 14-21 | 7.7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 28 | 0 | 8.3% | 46% |
| 4 | CAR | 42-13 | 12.6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 11.8% | 31% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 10.7% | 50% |
| 6 | NO | 25-19 | 4.6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 8.3% | 30% |
| 7 | TEN | 31-13 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 8 | CLE | 32-13 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 75 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 9 | ATL | 24-23 | 12.7 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 14 | 55 | 0 | 21.4% | 75% |
| 10 | TB | 28-23 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 147 | 2 | 3.4% | 84% |
| 11 | NYJ | 27-14 | 32.3 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 62 | 3 | 15.2% | 88% |
| 12 | CIN | 26-20 | 11.1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 66 | 0 | 12.1% | 65% |
| 13 | NYG | 33-15 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 67 | 0 | 13.3% | 49% |
| 15 | BUF | 31-35 | 30.1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 148 | 2 | 13.6% | 48% |
| 16 | BAL | 28-24 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2.4% | 19% |
| 17 | NYJ | 42-10 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 82 | 0 | 0% | 52% |
| 18 | MIA | 38-10 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 0% | 41% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 42 |
| Receiving yards | 221 |
| Carries | 180 |
| Rushing yards | 911 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 12.13 |
| Yards per target | 5.26 |
| Catch rate | 83.33% |
| Yards per carry | 5.06 |
| Snap share | 45.88% |
| Target share | 8.38% |
| Air-yards share | -0.02% |
| WOPR | 0.126 |
| RACR | 0.979 |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.7 |
| Total YAC | 244 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 3.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 38.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 28.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.64 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 25 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 49 |
| Target share | 26 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 21 of 49 |
The offense threw it 502 times. He took 8.77% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 21.29% |
| Hunter Henry | 18.16% |
| Mack Hollins | 13.57% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 9.6% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson ← | 8.77% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.28 in those and 11.82 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about TreVeyon Henderson →