Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.44 points per game in 2025, usage worth 3.1.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.
In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Tetairoa McMillan | 21.4% |
| Jalen Coker | 11.9% |
| Xavier Legette | 10.6% |
| Chris Brazzell II | 8.3% |
| David Moore | 8.2% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.1% |
What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.
Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.
Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency
Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.
Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.5 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +122.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — pedigree-driven (limited evidence). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gray | 2021 | 2.4 | 80% | +29.4% |
| Davis Allen | 2024 | 1.4 | 79% | +13.2% |
| Davis Allen | 2023 | 3.6 | 79% | +7.2% |
| Brevin Jordan | 2022 | 3 | 77% | +57.6% |
| Donald Parham | 2021 | 4.5 | 76% | -19.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 5, pick 163 by CAR |
| College | Notre Dame |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 258 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 115″ |
| 3-cone | 7.25s |
| Shuttle | 4.4s |
His best game was Week 4 against NE — 11.3 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 13-42. His worst was Week 15 against NO at 0, on 0 targets, final score 17-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 5 decided by more, 3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.1 points per game. He scored 3.44, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARI | 22-27 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9% | 7% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-0 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4.2% | 34% |
| 4 | NE | 13-42 | 11.3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 12.5% | 54% |
| 5 | MIA | 27-24 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3.7% | 37% |
| 6 | DAL | 30-27 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4.8% | 58% |
| 7 | NYJ | 13-6 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 9.7% | 44% |
| 10 | NO | 7-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 32% |
| 11 | ATL | 30-27 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 4.5% | 38% |
| 12 | SF | 9-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 22% |
| 13 | LA | 31-28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | 53% |
| 15 | NO | 17-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 44% |
| 16 | TB | 23-20 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9.7% | 30% |
| 17 | SEA | 10-27 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9.5% | 57% |
| 18 | TB | 14-16 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.7% | 45% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 171 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.44 |
| Yards per target | 6.84 |
| Catch rate | 76% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 39.64% |
| Target share | 6.44% |
| Air-yards share | 3.43% |
| WOPR | 0.121 |
| RACR | 1.776 |
| Average depth of target | 3.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Total YAC | 108 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.6% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.96 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 515 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tetairoa McMillan | 25.42% |
| Xavier Legette | 13.33% |
| Rico Dowdle | 10.42% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.96% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8.13% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.71% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 30.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.93 in those and 3.71 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Mitchell Evans →