Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.16 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 5.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 286 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR123 |
Our board has him at 67.1 points, 4.1 per game — 23.5 catches, 295 yards, 1.5 TDs. That is WR6, 268 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.6 points per game to a ceiling of 9, with the median at 4.1. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 268. We rank him 98 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Todd Bowles as head coach, Zac Robinson calling it. The offense projects to 33.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Ted Hurst (wr5), David Sills V (wr7), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2). Out: Mike Evans (wr1), Rachaad White (rb2), Ko Kieft (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.8%, with a bear case of 9.7% and a bull case of 12.2% and a full range of 9.2% to 13.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Emeka Egbuka | 20.2% |
| Jalen McMillan | 14.1% |
| Chris Godwin | 13% |
| Cade Otton | 11.8% |
| Tez Johnson ← | 10.8% |
| Bucky Irving | 7.7% |
What the offense looks like: Baker Mayfield is likely the QB of the future for Tampa & they are actively working to extend him. At its peak, it is a high powered offense that you want to own pieces of. This WR room has a void to fill with the departure of future HOF WR Mike Evans. Godwin is aging, & Egbuka COULD become a true WR1. OR McMillan, Johnson, or Hurst could break out and establish themselves as low end WR2/WR3 types. All of them can't win, but someone will. This RB room is confusing and Tampa has recently run a committee. Unclear if that is because Bucky was hurt in 2025 but he didnt have a single carry inside the 5 yard line the entire season. This makes me think Kenneth Gainwell will see significantly more playing time than many people realize. Sean Tucker MAY end up keeping the goalline role as well. We will find out.
Key additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell signed 2 year deal following IMPRESSIVE season in Pittsburgh as their RB2. Drafted WR Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Extended TE Cade Otton. Hired new OC Zac Robinson from ATL.
Key departures: WR Mike Evans left to 49ers in free agency after entire career with Bucs. RB Rachaad White left to Commanders in free agency (RB2 and filled in when Irving was injured).
Notes: Emeka Egbuka is primed for a MASSIVE breakout if Baker Mayfield has strong 2026 season. Mike Evans left team in free agency for 49ers, opening up opportunity for Jalen McMillan & Tez Johnson & Ted Hurst 3rd round draft pick (young & productive WR). Chris Godwin aging & struggles to produce but could have decent low end WR2/WR3 role over next few years. Bucs signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency who was HIGHLY productive in Pittsburgh. Strong concern for Bucky Irving owners. We will have to see how the RB split carries. Will get a better idea through the summer and camp. Worth note, if the Bucs do not perform well in 2026, Todd Bowles is going to get fired. Expect his best product or he's done.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Baker Mayfield returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.8 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.1 att/g; New OC Zac Robinson — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 9.2%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 14.4%, p25-p75 [12.5%, 16.9%], tails [11.7%, 19.6%]. Closest comps: Josh Palmer 2021→2022 (LAC: 8.6%→16.5%); Marvin Mims Jr. 2024→2025 (DEN: 9.5%→11.9%); Olamide Zaccheaus 2021→2022 (ATL: 11.3%→16.9%).
self-anchored 30% to own 9.2% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 14.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: TB rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -3.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +31.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Moore | 2020 | 7.4 | 60% | — |
| Jalen Nailor | 2024 | 7 | 59% | +18.9% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2020 | 3.2 | 56% | +14.2% |
| Malik Washington | 2024 | 4.1 | 55% | +19.2% |
| Ben Skowronek | 2022 | 6 | 53% | -27% |
Of the 4 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 7, pick 235 by TAM |
| College | Oregon |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 154 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 131″ |
| 3-cone | 6.65s |
| Shuttle | 4.15s |
His best game was Week 10 against NE — 20.2 PPR on 5 targets and a 11.6% target share, in a game that finished 23-28. His worst was Week 15 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 28-29. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 5 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 6.16, 23% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.19 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 14% |
| 3 | NYJ | 29-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 29% |
| 4 | PHI | 25-31 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.6% | 32% |
| 5 | SEA | 38-35 | 9.9 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 36% |
| 6 | SF | 30-19 | 11.5 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13% | 72% |
| 7 | DET | 9-24 | 15.8 | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18% | 68% |
| 8 | NO | 23-3 | 9.3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25% | 71% |
| 10 | NE | 23-28 | 20.2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11.6% | 83% |
| 11 | BUF | 32-44 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 83% |
| 12 | LA | 7-34 | 12.3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 12.9% | 86% |
| 13 | ARI | 20-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 57% |
| 15 | ATL | 28-29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 22% |
| 16 | CAR | 20-23 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 25% |
| 17 | MIA | 17-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 16% |
| 18 | CAR | 16-14 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.5% | 13% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 322 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 22 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 6.16 |
| Yards per target | 7.32 |
| Catch rate | 63.64% |
| Yards per carry | 3.14 |
| Snap share | 47.13% |
| Target share | 9.15% |
| Air-yards share | 13.77% |
| WOPR | 0.235 |
| RACR | 0.573 |
| Average depth of target | 11.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 110 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 123.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 12.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.81 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 558 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Emeka Egbuka | 23.52% |
| Cade Otton | 15% |
| Mike Evans | 11.48% |
| Sterling Shepard | 9.81% |
| Chris Godwin | 9.44% |
| Rachaad White | 8.33% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 23.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.8 in those and 4.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Tez Johnson →