Ted Hurst III
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR64 to WR85. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far4 games
- 1.86 yards of separation (NGS) (95th of 99 WRs)
- -1.37 YAC over expected a catch (NGS) (90th of 91 WRs)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 2.5–7.6 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: college seasons +0.6, college production +0.4, power-conference college +0.3, preseason ADP -0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14TB
PITUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a TB team total of 19. Rank is among every WR we project this week.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Ja'Marr Chase (W3, 24.8 PPR, 9/12 98 yds); Tee Higgins (W3, 21 PPR, 6/7 90 yds); Denzel Boston (W4, 12.9 PPR, 4/7 89 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #18 against the pass, #19 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points PIT allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Ted Hurst III's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
no stats recorded
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
TB +3.5 (closing) · total 50.5 · 85°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 3.2 (WR92) · TB -8.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 86°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 3.7 (WR88) · TB +1.5 (closing) · total 42.5 · 84°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 6.3 (WR60) · TB +3 (closing) · total 38.5 · 86°F, wind 3 mph · 7 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
TB target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
1 TDs on 0.86 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Leaderboardstop 10 among WRs, 2026
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 16 | 8-128-1 | 8.08.2 | 0.100.27 |
| Red zone13% of targets | 2 | 1-6-0 | 3.04.4 | -0.650.18 |
| Third down25% of targets | 4 | 2-42-0 | 10.57.1 | 0.560.14 |
| Score within 775% of targets | 12 | 4-52-0 | 4.38.1 | -0.350.26 |
| Trailing by 8+25% of targets | 4 | 4-76-1 | 19.08.2 | 1.430.28 |
| Two-minute drill31% of targets | 5 | 2-10-0 | 2.07.5 | 0.210.17 |
| Vs. the blitz31% of targets | 5 | 3-31-0 | 6.27.9 | 0.570.23 |
| No blitz69% of targets | 11 | 5-97-1 | 8.88.4 | -0.120.29 |
| Play action6% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.010.4 | -6.170.41 |
| With motion69% of targets | 11 | 5-92-1 | 8.48.3 | 0.160.32 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 11 of his 16 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 3 of 6 contested caught.
Team
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs CIN | 27-33 | 23.5 | 63%−5.8 | Mayfield28 att |
| W2vs CLE | 19-23 | 25.0 | 60%−6.1 | Mayfield34 att |
| W3vs MIN | 16-23 | 20.5 | 67%−6.6 | Mayfield34 att |
| W4vs GB | 14-17 | 17.8 | 49%−16.3 | Daniels27 att |
| W5vs DAL | 24-16 | 20.0 | 41%−13.7 | Daniels25 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Todd Bowles. QB: Jalon Daniels (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Ted Hurst III is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026TB | 4 | 8-128-116 tgt, 13.1% share | 5.7WR73 | 7.5−3.3 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,405). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 22 valued near #161 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 112 players' worth).
207.1 overall, WR169. ESPN 170.3 · Underdog 201.0 · Sleeper 243.9
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Georgia State | 11 | 71-1,004-6 | 37.3% | 33.0 |
| 2024Georgia State | 12 | 56-961-9 | 31.3% | 37.1 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.