Jalen McMillan
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR76 to WR96. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far1 game
80% range 1.7–5.1 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: catches per game -0.4, points so far -0.3, receiving EPA -0.3, receiving yards -0.2. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14TB
PIT0 points. Our projection does not expect him to play this week.
Updated Oct 14, 2026.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Ja'Marr Chase (W3, 24.8 PPR, 9/12 98 yds); Tee Higgins (W3, 21 PPR, 6/7 90 yds); Denzel Boston (W4, 12.9 PPR, 4/7 89 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #18 against the pass, #19 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points PIT allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
no stats recorded
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
Projected 3.7 (WR90) · TB +1.5 (closing) · total 42.5 · 84°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest · Injury report: practice FP
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
TB target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Splits
Against coverage2024-2025 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 41 | 8.2 | 59% | +0.09 |
| Zone | 36 | 9.6 | 75% | +0.52 |
| Cover 1 | 34 | 8.4 | 56% | +0.06 |
Team
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs CIN | 27-33 | 23.5 | 63%−5.8 | Mayfield28 att |
| W2vs CLE | 19-23 | 25.0 | 60%−6.1 | Mayfield34 att |
| W3vs MIN | 16-23 | 20.5 | 67%−6.6 | Mayfield34 att |
| W4vs GB | 14-17 | 17.8 | 49%−16.3 | Daniels27 att |
| W5vs DAL | 24-16 | 20.0 | 41%−13.7 | Daniels25 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Todd Bowles. QB: Jalon Daniels (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026TB | 1 | 0-0-01 tgt, 2.9% share | 0.0 | — |
| 2025TB | 4 | 12-178-015 tgt, 10.8% share, routes 54% | 6.0 | 6.4+4.3 |
| 2024TB | 13 | 37-461-858 tgt, 14.1% share, routes 79% | 9.0WR43 | 7.9+31.6 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2025 | 1 RZ car (2%), 0 inside 5, 0 rush TD vs 0.1 exp · 1 RZ tgt (1%), 0 end-zone, 0 rec TD vs 0.2 exp |
| 2024 | 1 RZ car (1%), 0 inside 5, 0 rush TD vs 0.0 exp · 8 RZ tgt (9%), 4 end-zone, 4 rec TD vs 2.2 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
2 of his last 17 games reached 20 PPR; 10 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2024
2025 game log 4 games · TB · 7.5 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W15vs ATL · D22 | 2-38 on 2 tgt | 46% | 4.8 |
| W16@ CAR · D8 | 2-15 on 3 tgt · 1-1 rush | 53% | 2.6 |
| W17@ MIA · D10 | 7-114 on 9 tgt | 52% | 14.9 |
| W18vs CAR · D7 | 1-11 on 1 tgt | 55% | 1.6 |
2024 game log 13 games · TB · 10.4 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs WAS · D31 | 1-32-1 on 3 tgt | 83% | 9.7 |
| W2@ DET · D30 | 1-21 on 2 tgt | 79% | 2.6 |
| W3vs DEN · D12 | 1-6 on 1 tgt | 77% | 1.1 |
| W6@ NO · D16 | 0-0 on 1 tgt | 18% | 0.0 |
| W7vs BAL · D30 | 3-15 on 8 tgt · 1-11 rush | 60% | 4.1 |
| W8vs ATL · D25 | 4-35 on 7 tgt · 1-17 rush | 81% | 7.2 |
| W12@ NYG · D14 | 1-11 on 2 tgt | 63% | 1.6 |
| W13@ CAR · D12 | 2-25 on 3 tgt | 76% | 3.5 |
| W14vs LV · D10 | 4-59-2 on 7 tgt | 79% | 19.9 |
| W15@ LAC · D12 | 5-75-1 on 6 tgt | 64% | 16.0 |
| W16@ DAL · D23 | 5-57-1 on 7 tgt | 83% | 14.2 |
| W17vs CAR · D11 | 5-51-2 on 5 tgt · 1-9 rush | 69% | 20.5 |
| W18vs NO · D24 | 5-74-1 on 6 tgt · 1-6 rush | 88% | 16.5 |
Health
Out · concern medium · through Week 9. Sprained PCL (re-aggravation of a camp knee injury); on IR, expected out 6-8 weeks.
Our note, Sep 30, 2026 · NBC/Rotoworld + team reports, 9/28-9/30
On IR — the recovery window may still be ahead of him. The base rate describes the injury type; it does not say when this one happened.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | Neck (2) |
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | Hamstring (6) |
9 report weeks over 2 seasons; recurring: Hamstring, Finger, Neck. Risk label: moderate.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,016). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 25 valued near #193 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 134 players' worth).
Risk profilepreseason, from comparable players
2024 Parker Washington (48% match). He went from 7.5 to 12.3 PPR a game the next year (WR5+→WR2). His dynasty value moved +65.1% over the next 12 months.
162.0 overall, WR64. Yahoo 130.0 · Underdog 152.9 · CBS 155.1 · ESPN 167.4 · Sleeper 195.4
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Washington | 5 | 34-468-3 | 23.3% | 20.5 |
| 2022Washington | 12 | 71-1,040-8 | 23.0% | 24.9 |
| 2021Washington | 10 | 39-470-3 | 21.5% | 21.5 |
| 2020Washington | 3 | 1-16-0 | 2.5% | 1.3 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.