Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.59 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 163.8, usage worth 3.
23 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 197.3 |
| ESPN | 167.6 |
| YAHOO | 131.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 153.2 |
| CBS | 158.8 |
| FFA | 151 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB56 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 27.1 picks |
Our board has him at 88.8 points, 5.5 per game — 517 rushing yards, 2.9 rushing TDs, 8.9 catches. That is RB6, 152 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.2 points per game to a ceiling of 10.2, with the median at 5.5. Boom rate 86%, bust rate 41%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 163.8 on consensus and our board has him 152. We rank him 11.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.
In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Saquon Barkley | 64.9% |
| Will Shipley | 15% |
| Tank Bigsby ← | 13.2% |
| Dameon Pierce | 7% |
What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.
Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)
Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.
Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 13.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 50 |
| Last season, carries per game | 4.2 |
That is a reduction of 1.2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.8 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tank Bigsby study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -4.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 2022 | 5.2 | 72% | -7% |
| Zack Moss | 2022 | 5 | 71% | +100.4% |
| Joshua Kelley | 2023 | 3.6 | 69% | -59.4% |
| Dameon Pierce | 2024 | 4.4 | 68% | -21.5% |
| Joshua Kelley | 2022 | 5.4 | 67% | +2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 88 by JAX |
| College | Auburn |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56s |
| Vertical | 32.5″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| Career PPR per game | 5.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.3 |
| Boom rate | 20% |
| Bust rate | 40% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.43 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 18 against WAS — 17.6 PPR on 17 touches and a 2.9% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 6 against NYG at 0, on 0 touches, final score 17-34. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.7; in the 5 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 3.59, 14.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | DEN | 17-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | MIN | 28-22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4.3% | 8% |
| 8 | NYG | 38-20 | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 104 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 10 | GB | 10-7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 11 | DET | 16-9 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 12 | DAL | 21-24 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-22 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 15 | LV | 31-0 | 5.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 0 | 5.6% | 39% |
| 16 | WAS | 29-18 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 11% |
| 17 | BUF | 13-12 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4.5% | 9% |
| 18 | WAS | 17-24 | 17.6 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 16 | 75 | 1 | 2.9% | 59% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 32 |
| Carries | 63 |
| Rushing yards | 356 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.59 |
| Yards per target | 8 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 5.65 |
| Snap share | 14.2% |
| Target share | 1.15% |
| Air-yards share | -0.12% |
| WOPR | 0.017 |
| RACR | 1.943 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 13 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.3 |
| Total YAC | 39 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 19.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 17.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.22 |
The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 14 | 4 | 3.1 | 8 | 1.24% |
| unknown | 1 | 0 | 10.4 | — | 0% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 29.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.37 in those and 2.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against IND — 25.9 PPR on 14 touches and a 2.9% target share, in a game that finished 37-34. His worst was Week 2 against CLE at 0, on 0 touches, final score 13-18. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 3 decided by more, 9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 8.06, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 17-20 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 4 | HOU | 20-24 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 5 | IND | 37-34 | 25.9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 101 | 2 | 2.9% | 40% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 7 | NE | 32-16 | 23.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 118 | 2 | 5% | 66% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 10.6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 78 | 0 | 10% | 67% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 52% |
| 10 | MIN | 7-12 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 2.4% | 46% |
| 14 | TEN | 10-6 | 13.2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 55 | 1 | 6.7% | 53% |
| 15 | NYJ | 25-32 | 4.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 2.3% | 26% |
| 16 | LV | 14-19 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 2.9% | 28% |
| 17 | TEN | 20-13 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 4.8% | 40% |
| 18 | IND | 23-26 | 11.2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 3.2% | 36% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 12 |
| Receiving yards | 54 |
| Carries | 168 |
| Rushing yards | 766 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 8.06 |
| Yards per target | 4.5 |
| Catch rate | 58.33% |
| Yards per carry | 4.56 |
| Snap share | 36.13% |
| Target share | 2.51% |
| Air-yards share | -0.01% |
| WOPR | 0.037 |
| RACR | -1.338 |
| Average depth of target | -1.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.4 |
| Total YAC | 64 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 34.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50% |
| Goal-line carry share | 50% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.58 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 37 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 36 of 46 |
| Target share | 44 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 46 |
The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 5 | 9.12 | 7.2 | 1.99% |
| Mac Jones | 7 | 7 | 6.7 | 2.57 | 3.19% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 2.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.65 in those and 7.84 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against IND — 7.3 PPR on 8 touches and a 3.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-21. His worst was Week 8 against PIT at -1.1, on 3 touches, final score 20-10. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.8; in the 9 decided by more, 2.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.7 points per game. He scored 1.91, 30.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 31-21 | 7.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 3.1% | 21% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-37 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 2.5% | 12% |
| 4 | ATL | 23-7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 5 | BUF | 25-20 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 6 | IND | 37-20 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3.6% | 27% |
| 7 | NO | 31-24 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 8 | PIT | 20-10 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 10 | SF | 3-34 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3.2% | 18% |
| 11 | TEN | 34-14 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 12 | HOU | 24-21 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 15 | BAL | 7-23 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 17 | CAR | 26-0 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-28 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 6 |
| Carries | 50 |
| Rushing yards | 132 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 1.91 |
| Yards per target | 1.5 |
| Catch rate | 25% |
| Yards per carry | 2.64 |
| Snap share | 14.31% |
| Target share | 0.95% |
| Air-yards share | 0.2% |
| WOPR | 0.016 |
| RACR | 0.462 |
| Average depth of target | 1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1 |
| Total YAC | 5 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.5% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 0 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.95 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 13% |
| Goal-line carry share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.65 |
The offense threw it 619 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew | 3.46% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 12 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.03% |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 0 | 3.2 | — | 0% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 58.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.92 in those and 0.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Tank Bigsby →