He has beaten his expected points in 1 of 3 seasons. Whether that is a skill or a countdown decides what he is worth at 163.8 overall.
Tank Bigsby scored 55.7 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 48.5. That gap of 7.2 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 163.8 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 7: rushing yards went up from 2.4 to 34.4, at 2.87 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offense around him got sharply better. He also missed Weeks 2, 9, 13.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a stable year. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 3.48 points per game on 71 touches — down 59.5% from his 2024 rate with JAX. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the carries he took, where on the field they started, and the targets he drew out of the backfield, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 48.5 points — 3 per game. He scored 7.2 more than that, a 14.8% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 292 rushing yards and 2.2 rushing touchdowns, plus 3.1 catches for 24 yards and 0.1 receiving touchdowns, and he cleared it.
Not one of his 15 games cleared 25 points. His best was 17.6 in Week 18. He wins with volume rather than with weeks that swing a matchup.
A steady floor has its own value in a lineup that needs one. 13 games came in under 10 points, including Week 1 against CAR (1.2) and Week 3 against LA (0).
The three largest overshoots — Week 16 (+7.2), Week 18 (+5.9), Week 8 (+4.7) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
1 of his 3 seasons ran hot: 2025 (+14.8%). 1 came in below what the usage justified: 2023 (-30.5%). Across all 3 he has scored 1.1 points fewer than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 42 graded prop lines, he has gone over 47.6% of the time. On rushing yards specifically the number is 47.6% across 21 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 84%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 25.9% rate and he converted at 25.0% — a gap of -0.9 points, which is noise.
Philadelphia returns 4 of 6 continuity slots — qb1, rb1, te1, hc — with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach and Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31.02 pass attempts a game at medium confidence.
That number is built from 25 comparable players — same age band, same prior share, same team, same coordinator — not from a depth chart. The closest three went Benny Snell 5.1% to 3.3%, Samaje Perine 4.5% to 6.5%, Gus Edwards 5.1% to 6.1%. Two held, one did not.
Across 2,022 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. time to the line of scrimmage (r 0.128), snap-share trend (r 0.103), recent scoring form (r 0.078) carry. week-to-week volatility (r -0.163) and receiving EPA per game (r -0.143) run negative — a player who was hyper-efficient on low volume tends to come back down, so a gaudy per-touch number is a warning rather than a selling point.
So the figures worth weighing for him: 67 carries, 17.4% of his team’s red-zone carries, 17% of the goal-line work, a 14.2% snap share. His carries produced 0.112 EPA per play, and he ran a 4.3% target share out of the backfield.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 111 games, PHI has come in +1.06 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 49% of weeks.
That is a real structural tailwind. Every skill player in this offense gets a small, repeatable bonus the market prices late.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 88.8 points, 5.5 per game across 16 expected games — 517 rushing yards, 2.9 rushing touchdowns, 8.9 catches for 66 yards. That is RB6, 152 overall, and -68 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
The books do not agree on him. Tank Bigsby is a board split: Yahoo takes him ~132, Sleeper lets him slide to ~197 (65.7-pick gap). That 65.7-pick gap between Yahoo and Sleeper is the practical thing to act on: in a Sleeper-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 163.8 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 65.7 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on sleeper and earliest on yahoo: sleeper 197.3, espn 167.6, yahoo 131.6, underdog 153.2, cbs 158.8.
He goes at 163.8 and our board has him 152. That is 11.8 picks of discount on a RB6 projection — you are getting the RB6 outcome at a price the room has set below it.
The case for: an 86% boom rate; an offense that beats its own implied total by 1.06 points a game.
The case against: a 41% bust rate; 3 games missed in the anchor season.
The call: take him at his ADP and do not talk yourself out of it.
Ask the Coach about Tank Bigsby Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 42 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.