Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.61 points per game in 2025, usage worth 7.9.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| Positional rank | WR218 |
Our board has him at 71.2 points, 4.3 per game — 27.2 catches, 332 yards, 1.8 TDs. That is WR6, 263 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.5 points per game to a ceiling of 12, with the median at 4.3. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 42%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.
In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.3%, with a bear case of 4.9% and a bull case of 7.2% and a full range of 3.2% to 8.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Devonta Smith | 17.8% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.4% |
| Makai Lemon | 17.1% |
| Elijah Moore | 10% |
| Eli Stowers | 8.9% |
| Saquon Barkley | 6.6% |
What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.
Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)
Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.
Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~28, prior share 18.3%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 8.3%, p25-p75 [4.7%, 10.8%], tails [0.0%, 14.2%]. Closest comps: Allen Robinson 2022→2023 (LA→PIT: 18.7%→10.8%); Odell Beckham 2023→2024 (BAL→MIA: 16.3%→7.4%); Breshad Perriman 2020→2021 (NYJ→TB: 18.1%→8.2%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 18.3% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +7.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | Greg Dortch | +11.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -37.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 71% | -53.6% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2023 | 8.5 | 69% | -35.2% |
| Christian Kirk | 2024 | 8.9 | 68% | -11.8% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2024 | 5.2 | 68% | -37.2% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2022 | 10.4 | 64% | -10.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 1, pick 25 by BAL |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 166 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 10.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 13.8% |
| Bust rate | 24.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Foot, Heel |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.19 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against DET — 20.5 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 30-17. His worst was Week 8 against WAS at 0, on 1 targets, final score 28-7. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.6; in the 7 decided by more, 8.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 8.61, 8.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.85 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 19.9 | 10 | 16 | 99 | 0 | 42.1% | 93% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-20 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17.2% | 75% |
| 3 | NYG | 22-9 | 8.2 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 17.1% | 68% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 12.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 14.3% | 52% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 8.8 | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 20% | 52% |
| 6 | DET | 30-17 | 20.5 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 2 | 14.3% | 52% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 9.4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 11.8% | 33% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 38% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 9.3 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 13.8% | 43% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 9.3% | 43% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.3% | 35% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 6.3% | 44% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 4.5 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 6.9% | 34% |
| 16 | TEN | 9-26 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 13.6% | 53% |
| 17 | DEN | 13-20 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 15% | 60% |
| 18 | LV | 12-14 | 9.4 | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 20% | 81% |
| Receptions | 49 |
| Targets | 74 |
| Receiving yards | 587 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 8.61 |
| Yards per target | 7.93 |
| Catch rate | 66.22% |
| Snap share | 53.5% |
| Target share | 14.19% |
| Air-yards share | 19.74% |
| WOPR | 0.351 |
| RACR | 2.033 |
| Average depth of target | 11.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 190 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.4 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.8% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.85 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.15 |
The offense threw it 584 times. He took 13.5% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown ← | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 13 | 62 | 9.34 | 7.97 | 13.73% |
| Chris Oladokun | 3 | 12 | 5.43 | 7.75 | 16.2% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.85 in those and 8.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 9.05, 43.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 9.5 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 19.5% | 27% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 8.6 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 18.4% | 40% |
| Receptions | 9 |
| Targets | 15 |
| Receiving yards | 91 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 9.05 |
| Yards per target | 6.07 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Snap share | 33.5% |
| Target share | 18.95% |
| Air-yards share | 27.5% |
| WOPR | 0.475 |
| RACR | 0.745 |
| Average depth of target | 8.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 46 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.4% |
| End-zone target share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.56 |
The offense threw it 600 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt | 5.62% |
1 of his 2 games were blowouts, 47.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.6 in those and 9.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against NYG — 17.4 PPR on 10 targets and a 34.5% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 13 against PIT at 0, on 3 targets, final score 24-10. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 8 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.4 points per game. He scored 10.36, 22.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 16-20 | 8.7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16.7% | 84% |
| 2 | NYG | 28-31 | 17.4 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 34.5% | 94% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-16 | 17.1 | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 33.3% | 95% |
| 4 | SF | 16-35 | 16.6 | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 24.4% | 94% |
| 5 | CIN | 20-34 | 16.1 | 4 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 33.3% | 91% |
| 6 | LA | 9-26 | 7.4 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 28.9% | 89% |
| 7 | SEA | 10-20 | 7.9 | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 21.2% | 92% |
| 8 | BAL | 24-31 | 15.3 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 25% | 95% |
| 9 | CLE | 0-27 | 6.4 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 40% | 90% |
| 10 | ATL | 25-23 | 3.8 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 12.9% | 100% |
| 11 | HOU | 16-21 | 3.2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 17.2% | 95% |
| 12 | LA | 14-37 | 14.8 | 6 | 12 | 88 | 0 | 27.3% | 87% |
| 13 | PIT | 24-10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | 53% |
| Receptions | 51 |
| Targets | 101 |
| Receiving yards | 574 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 23 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 10.36 |
| Yards per target | 5.68 |
| Catch rate | 50.5% |
| Yards per carry | 11.5 |
| Snap share | 89.15% |
| Target share | 25.21% |
| Air-yards share | 36.4% |
| WOPR | 0.632 |
| RACR | 0.519 |
| Average depth of target | 11.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8 |
| Total YAC | 164 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 72.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 15% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.36 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.64 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 50 of 51 |
| Target share | 17 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 16 of 51 |
The offense threw it 555 times. He took 18.7% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 19.63% |
| Marquise Brown ← | 18.7% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.48% |
| Michael Wilson | 10.74% |
| Zach Ertz | 7.96% |
| Greg Dortch | 7.59% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 69 | 13.31 | 6.03 | 27.16% |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 24 | 5.45 | 5.58 | 17.6% |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | 40% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 33.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.3 in those and 9.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against LA — 28 PPR on 17 targets and a 30.9% target share, in a game that finished 12-20. His worst was Week 18 against SF at 1.7, on 4 targets, final score 13-38. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 6 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.2 points per game. He scored 13, 14.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.04 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 21-44 | 14.3 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 16.7% | 95% |
| 2 | LV | 29-23 | 12.8 | 6 | 11 | 68 | 0 | 23.4% | 93% |
| 3 | LA | 12-20 | 28 | 14 | 17 | 140 | 0 | 30.9% | 95% |
| 4 | CAR | 26-16 | 20.8 | 6 | 11 | 88 | 1 | 35.5% | 93% |
| 5 | PHI | 17-20 | 21.8 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 26.3% | 97% |
| 6 | SEA | 9-19 | 11.8 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 25% | 96% |
| 12 | LAC | 24-25 | 10.6 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 29.6% | 97% |
| 14 | NE | 13-27 | 7.4 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 19.5% | 96% |
| 15 | DEN | 15-24 | 5.9 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 22.9% | 89% |
| 16 | TB | 16-19 | 8.8 | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 14.3% | 66% |
| 17 | ATL | 19-20 | 12.1 | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 23.7% | 91% |
| 18 | SF | 13-38 | 1.7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14.8% | 85% |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Targets | 107 |
| Receiving yards | 709 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 13 |
| Yards per target | 6.63 |
| Catch rate | 62.62% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 91.08% |
| Target share | 23.55% |
| Air-yards share | 36.27% |
| WOPR | 0.607 |
| RACR | 0.579 |
| Average depth of target | 11.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 236 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 64 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.9% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.04 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.04 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 28 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 47 of 51 |
| Target share | 23 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 51 |
The offense threw it 663 times. He took 16.88% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown ← | 16.88% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 15.14% |
| Zach Ertz | 10.88% |
| Greg Dortch | 10.09% |
| James Conner | 9.15% |
| Rondale Moore | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 72 | 17.16 | 7.38 | 26.77% |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 16 | 6.65 | 3.31 | 21.2% |
| David Blough | 2 | 13 | 6.9 | 5.23 | 19.25% |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 6 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 14.3% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 10.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8 in those and 15.68 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against IND — 33.5 PPR on 10 targets and a 23.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-25. His worst was Week 18 against PIT at 5.7, on 8 targets, final score 13-16. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.9; in the 5 decided by more, 12.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 14.27, 10.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 4.51 expected, a gap of -2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 27-33 | 19.4 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 1 | 20.7% | 69% |
| 2 | KC | 36-35 | 23.3 | 6 | 10 | 113 | 1 | 40% | 72% |
| 3 | DET | 19-17 | 8.3 | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 25.9% | 67% |
| 4 | DEN | 23-7 | 19.1 | 4 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 14.3% | 62% |
| 5 | IND | 31-25 | 33.5 | 9 | 10 | 125 | 2 | 23.3% | 90% |
| 6 | LAC | 34-6 | 7.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 18.5% | 74% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-41 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 80 | 1 | 34.1% | 86% |
| 9 | MIN | 34-31 | 20.6 | 9 | 12 | 116 | 0 | 29.3% | 82% |
| 10 | MIA | 10-22 | 9.7 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 31.7% | 75% |
| 12 | CLE | 16-10 | 13.1 | 8 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 31.3% | 75% |
| 13 | PIT | 19-20 | 10.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 18.9% | 86% |
| 14 | CLE | 22-24 | 9.1 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 20% | 95% |
| 15 | GB | 30-31 | 14.3 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 35.9% | 89% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-41 | 9.4 | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 24.3% | 92% |
| 17 | LA | 19-20 | 5.8 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 27.6% | 76% |
| 18 | PIT | 13-16 | 5.7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 25% | 82% |
| Receptions | 91 |
| Targets | 146 |
| Receiving yards | 1,008 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.27 |
| Yards per target | 6.9 |
| Catch rate | 62.33% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 79.5% |
| Target share | 26.3% |
| Air-yards share | 30.77% |
| WOPR | 0.61 |
| RACR | 0.726 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 388 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.74 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.3% |
| End-zone target share | 26.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.51 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 21 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 41 of 48 |
| Target share | 11 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 48 |
The offense threw it 610 times. He took 24.7% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 25.89% |
| Marquise Brown ← | 24.7% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.51% |
| Sammy Watkins | 8.29% |
| Devin Duvernay | 7.95% |
| Devonta Freeman | 7.11% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 99 | 16.73 | 8.33 | 26.18% |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 38 | 8.72 | 3.66 | 27.13% |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.4 | 4.89 | 24.3% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.97 in those and 14.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against CIN — 21.1 PPR on 8 targets and a 42.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-3. His worst was Week 11 against TEN at 0, on 3 targets, final score 24-30. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 10 decided by more, 13.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 11.44, 3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.47 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 38-6 | 15.1 | 5 | 6 | 101 | 0 | 24% | 63% |
| 2 | HOU | 33-16 | 9.2 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 26.1% | 68% |
| 3 | KC | 20-34 | 3.3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 22.2% | 79% |
| 4 | WAS | 31-17 | 12.6 | 4 | 8 | 86 | 0 | 34.8% | 75% |
| 5 | CIN | 27-3 | 19.8 | 6 | 10 | 77 | 1 | 27.8% | 86% |
| 6 | PHI | 30-28 | 9.7 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 24% | 85% |
| 8 | PIT | 24-28 | 7.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7.7% | 94% |
| 9 | IND | 24-10 | 6.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 21.7% | 86% |
| 10 | NE | 17-23 | 3.4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 20.6% | 94% |
| 11 | TEN | 24-30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.7% | 72% |
| 12 | PIT | 14-19 | 18.5 | 4 | 8 | 85 | 1 | 44.4% | 79% |
| 13 | DAL | 34-17 | 14.9 | 5 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 47.1% | 82% |
| 14 | CLE | 47-42 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 31.6% | 87% |
| 15 | JAX | 40-14 | 15.8 | 6 | 7 | 98 | 0 | 26.9% | 79% |
| 16 | NYG | 27-13 | 12.5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 17.4% | 63% |
| 17 | CIN | 38-3 | 21.1 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 42.1% | 58% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 100 |
| Receiving yards | 769 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 11.44 |
| Yards per target | 7.69 |
| Catch rate | 58% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 78.13% |
| Target share | 26.82% |
| Air-yards share | 37.56% |
| WOPR | 0.665 |
| RACR | 0.66 |
| Average depth of target | 12.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.5 |
| Total YAC | 274 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.4% |
| End-zone target share | 23.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 51 |
| Target share | 7 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 51 |
The offense threw it 405 times. He took 25.51% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown ← | 25.51% |
| Mark Andrews | 22.45% |
| Willie Snead | 12.24% |
| Miles Boykin | 8.42% |
| Devin Duvernay | 6.63% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 6.12% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15 | 92 | 10.97 | 7.43 | 25.65% |
| Robert Griffin | 1 | 8 | 18.5 | 10.63 | 44.4% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 52.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.98 in those and 8.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Marquise Brown →