Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.56 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.8.
31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
Our board has him at 4.2 points, 0.3 per game — 1.5 catches, 21 yards, 0.1 TDs. That is WR6, 395 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.2 points per game to a ceiling of 0.5, with the median at 0.3. Boom rate 76%, bust rate 35%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 2.8%, with a bear case of 1.8% and a bull case of 3.9% and a full range of 1.8% to 4.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| CeeDee Lamb | 22.7% |
| George Pickens | 21.4% |
| Jake Ferguson | 12.9% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 8.8% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.2% |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~29, prior share 9.7%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 3.8%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 7.9%], tails [0.0%, 10.3%]. Closest comps: Antoine Wesley 2021→2022 (ARI: 10.0%→0.0%); Marvin Hall 2020→2021 (DET→ATL: 7.8%→4.5%); Phillip Dorsett 2022→2023 (HOU→DEN: 9.1%→4.9%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 9.7% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | Randall Cobb | +17.5 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -35.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 2024 | 4.8 | 70% | -12.7% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2024 | 4 | 65% | +4.4% |
| Justin Watson | 2024 | 4.2 | 63% | -17.4% |
| Braxton Berrios | 2023 | 3.6 | 59% | -45.5% |
| K.J. Osborn | 2024 | 2.7 | 59% | -15.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 5, pick 174 by GNB |
| College | South Florida |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37s |
| Vertical | 30.5″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 6.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 19.4% |
| Bust rate | 33.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Back |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.71 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against MIA — 8.9 PPR on 1 targets and a 3.7% target share, in a game that finished 28-15. His worst was Week 14 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-22. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 3.56, 35.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 26-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 13% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-15 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.6% | 26% |
| 5 | LA | 26-23 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 6.3% | 53% |
| 6 | TB | 19-30 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8.1% | 61% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 31% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 3.7% | 52% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7.9% | 42% |
| 17 | CLE | 6-13 | 5.1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 24.3% | 82% |
| 18 | BAL | 26-24 | 8.4 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 15.9% | 84% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 29 |
| Receiving yards | 120 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.56 |
| Yards per target | 4.14 |
| Catch rate | 48.28% |
| Snap share | 49.33% |
| Target share | 8.27% |
| Air-yards share | 15.1% |
| WOPR | 0.23 |
| RACR | 0.424 |
| Average depth of target | 12.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Total YAC | 24 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 73.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.5% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.17 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian McCaffrey | 24.76% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17.27% |
| George Kittle | 13.24% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.17% |
| Jake Tonges | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 4 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4.9% |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 12.95% |
| unknown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% |
His best game was Week 10 against ATL — 25.9 PPR on 3 targets and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-17. His worst was Week 17 against LV at 0, on 2 targets, final score 10-25. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.3; in the 5 decided by more, 3.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 6.5, 8.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8.7% | 21% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 9% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.7% | 77% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 42% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 46% |
| 9 | CAR | 22-23 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.6% | 41% |
| 10 | ATL | 20-17 | 25.9 | 3 | 3 | 109 | 2 | 14.3% | 55% |
| 11 | CLE | 35-14 | 16.7 | 2 | 4 | 87 | 1 | 14.3% | 65% |
| 13 | LA | 14-21 | 11.6 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 8.8% | 76% |
| 14 | NYG | 14-11 | 9.1 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 22.6% | 71% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 8.8 | 2 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 24.1% | 78% |
| 17 | LV | 10-25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 78% |
| 18 | TB | 19-27 | 6.3 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 20.5% | 70% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 411 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 6.5 |
| Yards per target | 9.34 |
| Catch rate | 43.18% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 56.08% |
| Target share | 11.47% |
| Air-yards share | 23.42% |
| WOPR | 0.335 |
| RACR | 0.475 |
| Average depth of target | 17.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 14.6 |
| Total YAC | 137 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 114.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.79 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.7% |
| End-zone target share | 5.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.62 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.38 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 36 | 6.52 | 10.5 | 10.72% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 8 | 6.3 | 4.13 | 20.5% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 21.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.6 in those and 8.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against LAC — 17.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 31-17. His worst was Week 16 against LV at 0, on 1 targets, final score 14-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.8; in the 6 decided by more, 4.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.7 points per game. He scored 3.53, 11.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-21 | 6.8 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 5.4% | 63% |
| 2 | JAX | 17-9 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7.5% | 82% |
| 3 | CHI | 41-10 | 4.7 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5.4% | 53% |
| 4 | NYJ | 23-20 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.9% | 54% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-20 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5.1% | 65% |
| 6 | DEN | 19-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 56% |
| 7 | LAC | 31-17 | 17.4 | 3 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 12.5% | 69% |
| 8 | DEN | 9-24 | 2.7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 10.8% | 57% |
| 9 | MIA | 21-14 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10.7% | 55% |
| 11 | PHI | 17-21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 47% |
| 12 | LV | 31-17 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3.1% | 53% |
| 13 | GB | 19-27 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 16.7% | 49% |
| 14 | BUF | 17-20 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 10.3% | 33% |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.9% | 34% |
| 16 | LV | 14-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 80% |
| 17 | CIN | 25-17 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10.7% | 70% |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Targets | 42 |
| Receiving yards | 315 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.53 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 57.5% |
| Target share | 7.54% |
| Air-yards share | 18.23% |
| WOPR | 0.241 |
| RACR | 0.426 |
| Average depth of target | 17.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 92 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 73 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 15.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.1 |
The offense threw it 634 times. He took 7.02% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 20.23% |
| Rashee Rice | 17.06% |
| Justin Watson | 8.86% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.19% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling ← | 7.02% |
| Noah Gray | 6.86% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 8.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.7 in those and 2.81 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against LV — 15 PPR on 8 targets and a 19% target share, in a game that finished 30-29. His worst was Week 16 against SEA at 0, on 2 targets, final score 24-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 7 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 7.2, 2.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 3 expected, a gap of 1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 44-21 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 10.3% | 73% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 3.3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 20.6% | 79% |
| 3 | IND | 17-20 | 8.8 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 21.2% | 78% |
| 4 | TB | 41-31 | 9.3 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14.7% | 69% |
| 5 | LV | 30-29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 19% | 81% |
| 6 | BUF | 20-24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.6% | 82% |
| 7 | SF | 44-23 | 14.1 | 3 | 4 | 111 | 0 | 11.8% | 55% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-17 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1.6% | 71% |
| 10 | JAX | 27-17 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 11.4% | 84% |
| 11 | LAC | 30-27 | 2.8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 12.9% | 71% |
| 12 | LA | 26-10 | 9.6 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13.5% | 58% |
| 13 | CIN | 24-27 | 9.1 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 26.1% | 56% |
| 14 | DEN | 34-28 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7.1% | 51% |
| 15 | HOU | 30-24 | 11.6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 12.2% | 53% |
| 16 | SEA | 24-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 43% |
| 17 | DEN | 27-24 | 4.8 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 17.1% | 83% |
| 18 | LV | 31-13 | 5.7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 25% | 59% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 81 |
| Receiving yards | 687 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.2 |
| Yards per target | 8.48 |
| Catch rate | 51.85% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 67.41% |
| Target share | 14.15% |
| Air-yards share | 25.51% |
| WOPR | 0.391 |
| RACR | 0.652 |
| Average depth of target | 13.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.8 |
| Total YAC | 149 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.02 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.4% |
| End-zone target share | 22.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 50 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 22 of 51 |
| Target share | 49 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 51 |
The offense threw it 650 times. He took 13.28% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 24.92% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 16.56% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling ← | 13.28% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 11.64% |
| Justin Watson | 5.57% |
| Mecole Hardman | 5.57% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.3 in those and 6.06 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against MIN — 22.3 PPR on 10 targets and a 32.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-34. His worst was Week 18 against DET at 0, on 1 targets, final score 30-37. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 5 decided by more, 3.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 7.91, 8.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 3-38 | 4.7 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 24.2% | 63% |
| 2 | DET | 35-17 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14.8% | 66% |
| 3 | SF | 30-28 | 14.9 | 3 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 12.9% | 63% |
| 9 | KC | 7-13 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6.3% | 54% |
| 10 | SEA | 17-0 | 5.1 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 5.7% | 66% |
| 11 | MIN | 31-34 | 22.3 | 4 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 32.3% | 81% |
| 12 | LA | 36-28 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 20.5% | 70% |
| 14 | CHI | 45-30 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 14.3% | 66% |
| 15 | BAL | 31-30 | 20.8 | 5 | 7 | 98 | 1 | 22.6% | 66% |
| 17 | MIN | 37-10 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7.1% | 65% |
| 18 | DET | 30-37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 22% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 430 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 7.91 |
| Yards per target | 7.82 |
| Catch rate | 47.27% |
| Snap share | 62% |
| Target share | 14.87% |
| Air-yards share | 30.07% |
| WOPR | 0.434 |
| RACR | 0.445 |
| Average depth of target | 17.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.9 |
| Total YAC | 146 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.89 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.4% |
| End-zone target share | 8.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.94 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.06 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 9.67% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 29.7% |
| Aaron Jones | 11.42% |
| Allen Lazard | 10.54% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling ← | 9.67% |
| Randall Cobb | 6.85% |
| A.J. Dillon | 6.5% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 10 | 53 | 8.31 | 7.75 | 15.73% |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 6.3% |
4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 12.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.78 in those and 11.82 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against JAX — 24.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.2% target share, in a game that finished 24-20. His worst was Week 13 against PHI at -0.4, on 2 targets, final score 30-16. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 8 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 9.81, 19.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 43-34 | 19.6 | 4 | 6 | 96 | 1 | 14.6% | 54% |
| 2 | DET | 42-21 | 9.4 | 3 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 23.3% | 63% |
| 3 | NO | 37-30 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13.3% | 92% |
| 4 | ATL | 30-16 | 8.5 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 24.2% | 97% |
| 6 | TB | 10-38 | 6.2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 16.1% | 84% |
| 7 | HOU | 35-20 | 0.9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11.8% | 82% |
| 8 | MIN | 22-28 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.6% | 82% |
| 9 | SF | 34-17 | 19.3 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 2 | 13.3% | 89% |
| 10 | JAX | 24-20 | 24.9 | 4 | 6 | 149 | 1 | 18.2% | 92% |
| 11 | IND | 31-34 | 6.5 | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 17.1% | 85% |
| 13 | PHI | 30-16 | -0.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 75% |
| 14 | DET | 31-24 | 20.5 | 6 | 6 | 85 | 1 | 19.4% | 70% |
| 15 | CAR | 24-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 65% |
| 17 | CHI | 35-16 | 17.1 | 2 | 3 | 87 | 1 | 12.5% | 48% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 63 |
| Receiving yards | 690 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 9.81 |
| Yards per target | 10.95 |
| Catch rate | 52.38% |
| Yards per carry | 3.25 |
| Snap share | 77% |
| Target share | 14.04% |
| Air-yards share | 31.54% |
| WOPR | 0.432 |
| RACR | 0.628 |
| Average depth of target | 18.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 13.6 |
| Total YAC | 241 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.08 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.6% |
| End-zone target share | 9.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.1 |
The offense threw it 526 times. He took 12.6% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 29.8% |
| Aaron Jones | 12.6% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling ← | 12.6% |
| Robert Tonyan | 11.8% |
| Allen Lazard | 9.2% |
| Jamaal Williams | 7% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 37.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13 in those and 9.45 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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