Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.72 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 10.1.
35 years old · 13 seasons of experience · 2013 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 402 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE65 |
Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brandon Aiyuk | 21.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 18.6% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 10.2% |
| Antonio Williams | 9% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.7% |
| Rachaad White | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.
Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.
Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.
Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | Trey McBride | +1.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -46% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, TEs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 2023 | 10 | 81% | -17.2% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2023 | 7.2 | 70% | +24.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | 2024 | 8.2 | 63% | +55.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2024 | 7 | 62% | +11.1% |
| Will Dissly | 2024 | 7.3 | 61% | -27.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 249 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76s |
| Vertical | 30.5″ |
| Broad jump | 111″ |
| 3-cone | 7.08s |
| Shuttle | 4.47s |
| Career PPR per game | 9.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 22.8% |
| Bust rate | 24.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.12 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 13 against DEN — 20.6 PPR on 13 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 26-27. His worst was Week 5 against LAC at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-10. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 9 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.1 points per game. He scored 9.72, 3.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.55 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 21-6 | 11.6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 17.2% | 64% |
| 2 | GB | 18-27 | 18.4 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 20% | 90% |
| 3 | LV | 41-24 | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 16.7% | 52% |
| 4 | ATL | 27-34 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 16.7% | 61% |
| 5 | LAC | 27-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 53% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-25 | 16.3 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 25% | 60% |
| 7 | DAL | 22-44 | 12.7 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 22.6% | 67% |
| 8 | KC | 7-28 | 5.6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 20% | 62% |
| 9 | SEA | 14-38 | 8.6 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 19% | 63% |
| 10 | DET | 22-44 | 9.4 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 22.7% | 81% |
| 11 | MIA | 13-16 | 8.2 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 27.6% | 75% |
| 13 | DEN | 26-27 | 20.6 | 10 | 13 | 106 | 0 | 28.9% | 67% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-31 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | 69% |
| Receptions | 50 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 504 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.72 |
| Yards per target | 7 |
| Catch rate | 69.44% |
| Snap share | 66.46% |
| Target share | 19.28% |
| Air-yards share | 20.32% |
| WOPR | 0.431 |
| RACR | 0.758 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 123 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.9 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 17% |
| End-zone target share | 17.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.45 |
The offense threw it 469 times. He took 16.67% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel | 22.92% |
| Zach Ertz ← | 16.67% |
| Terry McLaurin | 13.89% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.41% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7.18% |
| Chris Moore | 5.32% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 7 | 33 | 9.96 | 6.88 | 16.87% |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 39 | 9.45 | 7.1 | 22.1% |
7 of his 13 games were blowouts, 35.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.46 in those and 12.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against ATL — 25.2 PPR on 7 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 9 against NYG at 1.5, on 1 targets, final score 27-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 5 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.3 points per game. He scored 10.44, 5.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-37 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 2 | NYG | 21-18 | 10.2 | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 13.8% | 65% |
| 3 | CIN | 38-33 | 8.8 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 21.7% | 64% |
| 4 | ARI | 42-14 | 7.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 68% |
| 5 | CLE | 34-13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 29.6% | 57% |
| 6 | BAL | 23-30 | 10.8 | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 15.2% | 80% |
| 7 | CAR | 40-7 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 20% | 58% |
| 8 | CHI | 18-15 | 14.7 | 7 | 11 | 77 | 0 | 32.4% | 76% |
| 9 | NYG | 27-22 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.3% | 48% |
| 10 | PIT | 27-28 | 7.1 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 25% | 77% |
| 11 | PHI | 18-26 | 18.7 | 6 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 21.9% | 80% |
| 12 | DAL | 26-34 | 15.8 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 23.5% | 76% |
| 13 | TEN | 42-19 | 12.5 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 20% | 66% |
| 15 | NO | 20-19 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6.5% | 23% |
| 16 | PHI | 36-33 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5.6% | 71% |
| 17 | ATL | 30-24 | 25.2 | 6 | 7 | 72 | 2 | 20% | 66% |
| 18 | DAL | 23-19 | 15.4 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 16.7% | 91% |
| Receptions | 66 |
| Targets | 91 |
| Receiving yards | 654 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 10.44 |
| Yards per target | 7.19 |
| Catch rate | 72.53% |
| Snap share | 66.88% |
| Target share | 17.88% |
| Air-yards share | 17.68% |
| WOPR | 0.391 |
| RACR | 1.119 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 187 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.82 |
| Red-zone targets | 25 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.8% |
| End-zone target share | 29.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.19 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 13 |
| Target share | 9 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 13 |
The offense threw it 525 times. He took 18.09% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 23.26% |
| Zach Ertz ← | 18.09% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.72% |
| Noah Brown | 11.13% |
| Austin Ekeler | 8.15% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.95% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 15 | 81 | 9.87 | 7.04 | 17.81% |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 10 | 14.7 | 8.4 | 18.35% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.5 in those and 11.24 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against NYG — 11.6 PPR on 8 targets and a 27.6% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 3 against DAL at 2.6, on 2 targets, final score 28-16. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 7.39, 30.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 16-20 | 8.1 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 33.3% | 77% |
| 2 | NYG | 28-31 | 11.6 | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 | 27.6% | 68% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-16 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9.5% | 59% |
| 4 | SF | 16-35 | 11.3 | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 24.4% | 76% |
| 5 | CIN | 20-34 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 13.3% | 75% |
| 6 | LA | 9-26 | 4.2 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13.2% | 46% |
| 7 | SEA | 10-20 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12.1% | 53% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 187 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 7.39 |
| Yards per target | 4.35 |
| Catch rate | 62.79% |
| Snap share | 64.86% |
| Target share | 19.06% |
| Air-yards share | 16.29% |
| WOPR | 0.399 |
| RACR | 0.463 |
| Average depth of target | 7.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Total YAC | 46 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 60.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -2 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.3% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.57 |
The offense threw it 555 times. He took 7.96% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 19.63% |
| Marquise Brown | 18.7% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.48% |
| Michael Wilson | 10.74% |
| Zach Ertz ← | 7.96% |
| Greg Dortch | 7.59% |
2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 30% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.75 in those and 9.85 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against CAR — 16.7 PPR on 6 targets and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 26-16. His worst was Week 10 against LA at 2.2, on 1 targets, final score 27-17. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.3; in the 5 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 11.56, 4.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 21-44 | 11.4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 11.1% | 60% |
| 2 | LV | 29-23 | 15.5 | 8 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 23.4% | 84% |
| 3 | LA | 12-20 | 10.5 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 18.2% | 93% |
| 4 | CAR | 26-16 | 16.7 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 19.4% | 82% |
| 5 | PHI | 17-20 | 10.8 | 6 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 26.3% | 93% |
| 6 | SEA | 9-19 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 27.8% | 96% |
| 7 | NO | 42-34 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13.8% | 80% |
| 8 | MIN | 26-34 | 13.4 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 11.6% | 88% |
| 9 | SEA | 21-31 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 24.2% | 97% |
| 10 | LA | 27-17 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.9% | 13% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 69 |
| Receiving yards | 406 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 11.56 |
| Yards per target | 5.88 |
| Catch rate | 68.12% |
| Snap share | 78.6% |
| Target share | 17.87% |
| Air-yards share | 20.8% |
| WOPR | 0.414 |
| RACR | 0.902 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Total YAC | 130 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.84 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.4% |
| End-zone target share | 30% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.39 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.39 |
The offense threw it 663 times. He took 10.88% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown | 16.88% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 15.14% |
| Zach Ertz ← | 10.88% |
| Greg Dortch | 10.09% |
| James Conner | 9.15% |
| Rondale Moore | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 9 | 68 | 12.6 | 5.79 | 19.53% |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.9% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 9.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 11.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against SEA — 28.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 20.5% target share, in a game that finished 23-13. His worst was Week 2 against SF at 1.6, on 2 targets, final score 11-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.2; in the 9 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 10.63, 8.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.45 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 32-6 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 6.3% | 58% |
| 2 | SF | 11-17 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8.3% | 64% |
| 3 | DAL | 21-41 | 15.3 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 18.4% | 52% |
| 4 | KC | 30-42 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 18.2% | 50% |
| 5 | CAR | 21-18 | 1.7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 17.6% | 60% |
| 6 | TB | 22-28 | 12.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 25% | 88% |
| 7 | HOU | 31-5 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 17.9% | 49% |
| 8 | GB | 21-24 | 8.2 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 12.9% | 73% |
| 9 | SF | 31-17 | 5.7 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19.2% | 80% |
| 10 | CAR | 10-34 | 8.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 20.7% | 82% |
| 11 | SEA | 23-13 | 28.8 | 8 | 9 | 88 | 2 | 20.5% | 76% |
| 13 | CHI | 33-22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 13.3% | 77% |
| 14 | LA | 23-30 | 9.2 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 14.3% | 83% |
| 15 | DET | 12-30 | 13.4 | 6 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 22.9% | 89% |
| 16 | IND | 16-22 | 13.4 | 8 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 33.3% | 97% |
| 17 | DAL | 25-22 | 11.1 | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 24.3% | 91% |
| 18 | SEA | 30-38 | 15.4 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 25.6% | 92% |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Targets | 112 |
| Receiving yards | 763 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.63 |
| Yards per target | 6.81 |
| Catch rate | 66.07% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 74.18% |
| Target share | 18.75% |
| Air-yards share | 19.69% |
| WOPR | 0.419 |
| RACR | 1.446 |
| Average depth of target | 7.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 340 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.55 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.5% |
| End-zone target share | 18.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.45 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 15 |
| Target share | 7 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 15 |
The offense threw it 494 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVonta Smith | 22.32% |
| Dallas Goedert | 16.31% |
| Quez Watkins | 13.3% |
| Jalen Reagor | 12.23% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 10.73% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.3% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 93 | 11.01 | 6.74 | 18.96% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 12 | 8.7 | 7.83 | 19.45% |
| unknown | 1 | 7 | 9.2 | 6 | 14.3% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 32.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.74 in those and 9.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against CIN — 14 PPR on 10 targets and a 22.7% target share, in a game that finished 23-23. His worst was Week 5 against PIT at 1.6, on 6 targets, final score 29-38. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 5 decided by more, 6.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 7.05, 39.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.43 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 17-27 | 10.8 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 16.7% | 85% |
| 2 | LA | 19-37 | 9.2 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 17.1% | 94% |
| 3 | CIN | 23-23 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 22.7% | 92% |
| 4 | SF | 25-20 | 6.9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19.2% | 95% |
| 5 | PIT | 29-38 | 1.6 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 16.7% | 95% |
| 6 | BAL | 28-30 | 7.3 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 25.6% | 67% |
| 13 | GB | 16-30 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 16% | 44% |
| 14 | NO | 24-21 | 2.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 11.5% | 72% |
| 15 | ARI | 26-33 | 8.9 | 2 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 17.5% | 75% |
| 16 | DAL | 17-37 | 6.3 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 20.6% | 85% |
| 17 | WAS | 14-20 | 4.6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 20.7% | 90% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 335 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 7.05 |
| Yards per target | 4.65 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 81.27% |
| Target share | 18.57% |
| Air-yards share | 13.96% |
| WOPR | 0.376 |
| RACR | 0.7 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Total YAC | 88 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 50.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.66 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.9% |
| End-zone target share | 6.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.43 |
The offense threw it 598 times. He took 12.86% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Greg Ward | 14.11% |
| Zach Ertz ← | 12.86% |
| Travis Fulgham | 11.96% |
| Dallas Goedert | 11.61% |
| Jalen Reagor | 9.64% |
| Miles Sanders | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 7 | 49 | 7.84 | 4.27 | 19.14% |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 23 | 5.65 | 5.48 | 17.57% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 20% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.75 in those and 7.42 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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