Kyle Williams
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR92 to WR105. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- 13.5 yards a target (4th of 103 WRs)
- 6.7% target share (103rd of 103 WRs)
- 2 targets a game (102nd of 103 WRs)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 1.4–4.5 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: college seasons -0.3, catches per game -0.3, final college season -0.3, sportsbook-implied points Wks 1-4 -0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14NE
NYJUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a NE team total of 25.5. Rank is among every WR we project this week.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Rome Odunze (W4, 15.4 PPR, 6/7 94 yds); Christian Watson (W2, 14.1 PPR, 4/11 41 yds); Denzel Boston (W5, 13.6 PPR, 3/7 46 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #10 against the pass, #5 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points NYJ allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Kyle Williams's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
Against NYJ beforelast 2
| Game | Line | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17@ NYJ · W 42-10 | 3-20 on 5 tgt | 3.5 |
| 2025 W11vs NYJ · W 27-14 | 0-0 on 3 tgt | 0.0 |
3-91-1 rec on 3 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
NE +3 (closing) · total 44.5 · 74°F, wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · prime time
Projected 2.6 (WR99) · NE -4.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 63°F, wind 7 mph · 11 days rest
Projected 3.8 (WR87) · NE +3 (closing) · total 46.5 · 80°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 3.5 (WR86) · NE +7 (closing) · total 49.5 · 69°F, wind 11 mph · 7 days rest · division game
Projected 2.8 (WR92) · NE -3.5 (closing) · total 45.5 · 7 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 18.5% | 32.0% | +13.5 |
| Target share | 4.8% | 8.4% | +3.6 |
| Air-yard share | 5.9% | 14.7% | +8.8 |
| Targets a game | 1.0 | 2.7 | +1.7 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
NE target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
1 TDs on 0.44 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 10 | 5-135-1 | 13.58.2 | 0.100.27 |
| Third down40% of targets | 4 | 3-67-0 | 16.87.1 | 1.030.14 |
| Score within 730% of targets | 3 | 1-10-0 | 3.38.1 | 0.150.26 |
| Trailing by 8+30% of targets | 3 | 1-34-0 | 11.38.2 | -2.010.28 |
| Leading by 8+40% of targets | 4 | 3-91-1 | 22.89.3 | 1.640.37 |
| Two-minute drill10% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.07.5 | -0.460.17 |
| Vs. the blitz40% of targets | 4 | 2-59-0 | 14.87.9 | 1.010.23 |
| No blitz60% of targets | 6 | 3-76-1 | 12.78.4 | -0.510.29 |
| Play action30% of targets | 3 | 1-49-0 | 16.310.4 | 0.640.41 |
| With motion60% of targets | 6 | 3-91-1 | 15.28.3 | 0.850.32 |
| Screens10% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.04.7 | -0.87-0.20 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 5 of his 10 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 0 of 1 contested caught.
Against coverage2025 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 14 | 7.6 | 29% | −0.25 |
| Zone | 13 | 9.0 | 62% | +0.62 |
With and withoutfantasy points a game, NE, 2025–2026
"Without" = games he played and the teammate did not (a QB counts as playing with 10+ attempts). Games either of them left injured are left out. Small samples swing hard. Who benefits when a player gets hurt? ›
Team
NENew England Patriots offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs SEA | 10-13 | 20.8 | 54%−11.5 | Maye33 att |
| W2vs PIT | 20-3 | 23.0 | 49%+0.7 | Maye22 att |
| W3vs JAX | 6-35 | 21.8 | 57%−12.6 | Maye25 att |
| W4vs BUF | 29-26 | 21.3 | 54%−1.7 | Maye37 att |
| W5vs LV | 45-17 | 24.5 | 56%−1.5 | Maye34 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Mike Vrabel. QB: Drake Maye (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Kyle Williams is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026NE | 5 | 5-135-110 tgt, 7.0% share | 4.4WR90 | 3.6+6.6 |
| 2025NE | 14 | 10-209-321 tgt, 6.5% share, routes 30% | 3.2WR111 | 2.7+6.5 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Floor and ceilingPPR
0 of his last 14 games reached 20 PPR; 11 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2025
2025 game log 14 games · NE · 3.5 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs LV · D10 | 1-12 on 1 tgt | 10% | 1.7 |
| W3vs PIT · D15 | 1-8 on 1 tgt | 12% | 1.3 |
| W4vs CAR · D2 | 1--2 rush | 29% | -0.2 |
| W6@ NO · D11 | 0-0 on 2 tgt | 22% | 0.0 |
| W7@ TEN · D19 | 0-0 on 1 tgt | 18% | 0.0 |
| W9vs ATL · D6 | 0-0 on 1 tgt | 46% | 0.0 |
| W10@ TB · D16 | 1-72-1 on 2 tgt | 56% | 13.7 |
| W11vs NYJ · D11 | 0-0 on 3 tgt | 67% | 0.0 |
| W12@ CIN · D10 | 1-18 on 1 tgt | 7% | 2.3 |
| W13vs NYG · D27 | 1-33-1 on 1 tgt | 22% | 9.8 |
| W15vs BUF · D15 | no stats | 10% | 0.0 |
| W16@ BAL · D22 | 2-46-1 on 3 tgt | 38% | 11.6 |
| W17@ NYJ · D15 | 3-20 on 5 tgt | 85% | 3.5 |
| W18vs MIA · D15 | 1-5 rush | 46% | 0.5 |
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,537). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 24 valued near #238 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 131 players' worth).
2024 Nelson Agholor (45% match). His dynasty value moved −21.3% over the next 12 months.
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Washington State | 12 | 60-1,021-13 | 31.6% | 37.5 |
| 2023Washington State | 12 | 61-842-6 | 20.9% | 21.5 |
| 2022UNLV | 9 | 40-541-5 | 26.2% | 32.4 |
| 2021UNLV | 10 | 42-601-2 | 29.7% | 26.0 |
| 2020UNLV | 6 | 35-426-2 | 38.2% | 35.8 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.