Efton Chism IIINew England Patriots
WR/New England Patriots

Efton Chism III

Age 25.0 · 2nd season · undrafted or pre-2015
01

Overview

2026 so far4 games

Points a game
5.3
WR78 of 175
Target share
11%
80th of 103 WRs
Targets a game
3.3
9 catches, 98 yds
Expected PPR a game
5.8
+0.5 a game vs usage
Role: low-volume receiver
  • target share up from 5.9% to 14.9% (last 2 games vs the two before)
  • share of NE's air yards up from 0% to 16% (last 2 games vs the two before)
  • snap share up from 22% to 61% (last 2 games vs the two before)
  • 9% of NE's air yards (97th of 103 WRs)
  • 41% of snaps (97th of 103 WRs)

Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.

02

Week 6

Lines Oct 14
NE
VS
Sun · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
NYJ
LineNE -7.25Total43.5NE implied25.4Rest7 days (NYJ 7)Forecast56°F, wind 9 mph
Our Week 6 projection
6.2pts
WR51
Bench
4.6tgt3.0rec32yds0.24TD

Updated Oct 14, 2026, built on a NE team total of 25.5. Rank is among every WR we project this week.

New York Jets defense vs WRs
#10of 32 in fantasy points allowed to WRs (1 = stingiest)
StingiestSoftest
PPR a game
29.3
targets
18.2
rec yds
130
TD
0.8

Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Rome Odunze (W4, 15.4 PPR, 6/7 94 yds); Christian Watson (W2, 14.1 PPR, 4/11 41 yds); Denzel Boston (W5, 13.6 PPR, 3/7 46 yds).

EPA ranks entering Week 6: #10 against the pass, #5 against the run (1 = best defense).

Where NYJ gives up receiving fantasy points to WRs
#15
NYJ's average rank in the zones where III gets his targets, weighted by his share there (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest).
Left
Middle
Right
Deep 20+
2.4#22
1.3#15
8%1.3#9
Middle 10–19
23%1.6#10
2.9#20
15%2.4#14
Short 0–9
3.6#14
15%2.4#21
23%4.6#20
Behind line
15%0.3#12
0.0#1
0.6#13
StingySoft

Big number: receiving fantasy points NYJ allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Efton Chism III's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.

Against NYJ beforelast 2

GameLinePts
2025 W17@ NYJ · W 42-102-40-1 on 2 tgt11.0
2025 W11vs NYJ · W 27-14no stats0.0
Week 5: projected vs. actual
Projected
4.5
WR74
Actual
8.4
Difference
+3.9

1-2 rush, 5-57 rec on 6 tgt

Do defensive matchups actually matter? Our study ›

03

Game log

2026 · through W5
Fantasy pointsOur projection that weekSeason average 5.3
05101—20.831.7412.2510.905101—20.331.2411.258.405101—2-0.230.7410.255.9

Every gametap a game for the detail

W1
@ SEA L 10-13
No catch, carry or pass recorded
—

D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.

04

Usage

Snap shareTarget shareAir-yard share
0%25%50%75%100%W2W3W4W576%20%19%

What changedlast 3 full games vs. before

W2W3, W4, W5Change
Snap share18.0%48.7%+30.7
Target share4.8%12.4%+7.6
Air-yard share-100.0%37.7%+137.7
Targets a game1.04.0+3.0

Games he left injured are left out of both sides.

NE target treeshare of team targets, 2026

DeMario Douglas
14.7%
Efton Chism III
10.5%

Season to date, games each player played.

Role details2026, through Week 5

Red-zone tgt share
5%
1 red-zone targets
First-read share
7%
of targets as the QB’s first read
Air yards a game
28
aDOT 8.6
Snap share
41.0%
Play-action targets
46%
of his targets
Targets with motion
69%
of his targets
Screen targets
8%
of his targets
05

Advanced

PoorAverageGreat
Fantasy points a game2+ games
5.3
40
40
40
Target share2+ games
10.5%
31
Air-yard share2+ games
8.2%
12
WOPR2+ games
0.21
18
First-read target shareneeds 15+ targets
7.2%
Red-zone target share2+ games
4.5%
15
Yards per targetneeds 15+ targets
7.5
EPA per targetneeds 15+ targets
0.23
Separation (yds)needs 15+ targets
3.38
YAC over expectedneeds 15+ targets
−0.71
Catchable-target rateneeds 15+ targets
69.2%
Drop rateneeds 15+ targets
0.0%
Average depth of targetneeds 15+ targets
8.6
Expected points a game2+ games
5.8
29

Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.

Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play

Expected PPR a game
5.8
what his targets and carries are usually worth
Actual PPR a game
6.3
Over expected
+0.5
points a game
TDs vs. expected
1/ 0.6
+0.39

1 TDs on 0.61 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›

06

Splits

As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5

SituationTgtRec-Yds-TDYds/tgtEPA/tgt
All targets139-98-17.58.20.230.27
Red zone8% of targets10-0-00.04.4-4.470.18
Inside the 108% of targets10-0-00.02.4-4.47-0.01
Third down38% of targets54-33-16.67.10.070.14
Score within 769% of targets96-76-18.48.10.640.26
Trailing by 8+15% of targets21-1-00.58.2-2.350.28
Leading by 8+15% of targets22-21-010.59.30.940.37
Two-minute drill23% of targets31-23-17.77.5-0.370.17
Vs. the blitz69% of targets95-72-18.07.90.330.23
No blitz31% of targets44-26-06.58.40.000.29
Play action46% of targets63-29-04.810.40.030.41
With motion69% of targets95-49-15.48.3-0.240.32
Screens8% of targets11--2-0-2.04.7-2.38-0.20

Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 9 of his 13 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 4 of 5 contested caught.

With and withoutfantasy points a game, NE, 2025–2026

Mack HollinsWR · 2025–2026
With
0.2
Without
7.8
With: 8 g, 0.4 tgt a game, 1.4% share · Without: 3 g (25·W17, 25·W18, 26·W5), 3.0 tgt a game, 10.8% share

"Without" = games he played and the teammate did not (a QB counts as playing with 10+ attempts). Games either of them left injured are left out. Small samples swing hard. Who benefits when a player gets hurt? ›

07

Team

NE
Points a game
22.0
20th of 32
Plays a game
62.6
11th of 32
EPA per play
0.046
11th of 32
Pass rate over exp.
−5.5%
17th of 32
Red-zone plays a game
8.0
26th of 32
Motion rate
43%
21st of 32
Play-action rate
12%
12th of 32
No-huddle rate
0%
31st of 32

New England Patriots offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.

Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB

WeekScoreImpliedPass rateQB
W1vs SEA10-1320.854%−11.5Maye33 att
W2vs PIT20-323.049%+0.7Maye22 att
W3vs JAX6-3521.857%−12.6Maye25 att
W4vs BUF29-2621.354%−1.7Maye37 att
W5vs LV45-1724.556%−1.5Maye34 att

Depth chartWR, Oct 14

WR2
DeMario Douglas
WR3
Efton Chism III

Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs

W6
NYJ
#10
W7
@CHI
#19
W8
@MIA
#2
W9
GB
#13
W10
@DET
#30
W11
BYE
W12
@LAC
#16
W13
BUF
#32
W14
MIN
#5
W15
@KC
#1
W16
@NYJ
#10
W17
DEN
#3
W18
MIA
#2
Next 4
#11
average rank
Playoffs W15–17
#5
average rank
Bye
W11

Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›

Head coach: Mike Vrabel. QB: Drake Maye (most pass attempts, Week 5).

08

Charts

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Efton Chism III is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.

09

Career

Points a game by season
’258.3’266.4
’257.5’265.3
’256.8’264.2

Season by season

YearGRec-Yds-TDPts/gxFP/g
2026NE49-98-113 tgt, 10.5% share5.3WR785.8+1.9
2025NE23-75-13 tgt, 5.6% share, routes 14%7.50.7+12.7

Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).

Red zone and touchdowns

20251 RZ tgt (1%), 1 end-zone, 1 rec TD vs 0.3 exp

Floor and ceilingPPR

Middle half of games
0.0–0.0
PPR, 8 games 2023–25

0 of his last 8 games reached 20 PPR; 7 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›

Every game since 2025

2025 game log 8 games · NE · 2.1 PPR a game
GameLineSnapsPts
W6@ NO · D11no stats—0.0
W7@ TEN · D19no stats—0.0
W9vs ATL · D6no stats—0.0
W10@ TB · D16no stats—0.0
W11vs NYJ · D11no stats—0.0
W13vs NYG · D27no stats—0.0
W17@ NYJ · D152-40-1 on 2 tgt—11.0
W18vs MIA · D151-35 on 1 tgt—4.0
10

Health

No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.

2026 injury reportofficial, week by week

W2
✓
W3
✓
W4
✓
W5
✓
W6
•

✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.

Historyofficial injury reports since 2020

YearWeeks listedRuled outListed for
202510Knee

1 report weeks over 1 seasons; recurring: Knee. Risk label: low.

How long do players take to recover? ›

Teammates on the report

11

Value

Market Oct 10
1QB value
1,457
#361 overall · WR150 · tier 13
Superflex
1,176
#361 overall · WR149
30 days
+26
90 days −23 · 1 year −248
Peak
1,876
Mar 31, 2026 · 22% off
1QB dynasty value, last two years
1K2KJul ’25Jan ’26Jul ’261,4571,873

Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.

Where his value could be in a year
452
1,280
2,271

Teal dot = today (1,457). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 25 valued near #361 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 125 players' worth).

Closest comparable season

2017 Josh Reynolds (54% match). He went from 3.4 to 8.8 PPR a game the next year (WR5+→WR5+). His dynasty value moved 0.0% over the next 12 months.

Does the dynasty market see breakouts coming? ›

Redraft ADP, final preseason (Sep 12, 2026)

169.9 overall, WR72. ESPN 169.9 · Underdog 216.0

12

Profile

Age
25.0

Keep digging

All players · Week 6 rankings · Rest-of-season rankings · Charts · Stats · Methodology
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, weekly stats, Next Gen Stats and FTN charting (free public data); official NFL injury reports; Sleeper; GWTTKB rankings, projections and market data. Built 2026-10-14. Every number on this page comes from those files; where a stat is not on file it is left blank, never zero. Nothing here is betting advice.