WR · DET · GWTTKB

Greg Dortch — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 4.7.

28 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN170
UNDERDOG216
FFA523

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR124
Bye week6

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 40.5 points, 2.5 per game — 16.8 catches, 183 yards, 0.9 TDs. That is WR6, 352 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 1.4 points per game to a ceiling of 4.9, with the median at 2.5. Boom rate 96%, bust rate 43%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 352. We rank him 182 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.

In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.7%, with a bear case of 2.8% and a bull case of 6.8% and a full range of 2% to 7.4%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Amon-Ra St Brown25.8%
Jameson Williams15.9%
Sam LaPorta15.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs13.2%
Kendrick Law7%
Greg Dortch 5.7%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta

Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.

Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 8.8%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 7.8%, p25-p75 [1.8%, 10.0%], tails [0.0%, 11.3%]. Closest comps: Kadarius Toney 2022→2023 (NYG→KC: 7.9%→8.5%); Kadarius Toney 2023→2024 (KC→CLE: 8.3%→1.8%); Freddie Swain 2021→2022 (SEA→DEN: 9.3%→7.8%).

arrival self-anchored 32% to own 8.8% role (2yr)

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.6 · harder
Weeks 1–6-5.6 · harder
Weeks 12–17+2.9 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-2.7 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +1.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Isaiah McKenzie20231.652%-46.2%
Cedrick Wilson2022247%+16.1%
Kendrick Bourne20225.545%+39%
Deven Thompkins20232.144%-22.2%
Jamal Agnew20233.743%-36%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Up 762% across the series, peaking at 2,292.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height5′7″
Weight173 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game5.5
Week-to-week variation1.1
Boom rate17.6%
Bust rate37.3%
Games missed per season0.2
Injury historyChest
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.47

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · ARI · 12 games

His best game was Week 11 against SF — 18.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 10.7% target share, in a game that finished 22-41. His worst was Week 1 against NO at 0.8, on 1 targets, final score 20-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 3 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.7 points per game. He scored 6.26, 33.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NO20-130.811-203.4%15%
2CAR27-222.1111104%18%
3SF15-162.822305.9%24%
4SEA20-237.94535012.5%64%
5TEN21-223.2221206.7%7%
6IND27-319.933917.7%44%
7GB23-272.522505.9%9%
9DAL27-170.900000%21%
10SEA22-446.200010%39%
11SF22-4118.66666110.7%66%
12JAX24-2716.86953119.6%63%
13TB17-203.4221405.4%33%

Production

Receptions29
Targets33
Receiving yards206
Carries7
Rushing yards15
Touchdowns4
Points per game6.26
Yards per target6.24
Catch rate87.88%
Yards per carry2.14

Role

Snap share33.58%
Target share6.82%
Air-yards share1.17%
WOPR0.11
RACR0.768

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.8
Yards after catch per reception6.7
Yards before catch per reception0.4
Total YAC194
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted123
Receiving EPA per game0.35
Rushing EPA per game-0.12

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share6.9%
End-zone target share2.6%
Red-zone carry share6%
Goal-line carry share5.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.04
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.96
Expected rushing TDs0.48

Who else ate

The offense threw it 648 times. He took 5.35% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride27.39%
Michael Wilson20.42%
Marvin Harrison11.83%
Michael Carter7.29%
Elijah Higgins6%
Greg Dortch 5.35%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett7228.336.687.04%
Kyler Murray5113.365.366.5%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 33% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.4 in those and 5.49 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · ARI · 17 games

His best game was Week 18 against SF — 21.4 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 47-24. His worst was Week 9 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 29-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5; in the 9 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 5.31, 1.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF28-3411.16847025.8%61%
2LA41-103.1221109.5%35%
3DET13-206.53635017.6%66%
4WAS14-427.84438018.2%73%
5SF24-231.712706.7%41%
6GB13-344.63536015.6%62%
7LAC17-157.512518%30%
8MIA28-271.912906.1%38%
9CHI29-9001005.3%38%
10NYJ31-60.911-104.2%25%
12SEA6-161.512505.9%21%
13MIN22-232.723107%23%
14SEA18-301.511502.6%38%
15NE30-179.6336009.7%26%
16CAR30-363.7111903.4%30%
17LA9-134.8331806.7%32%
18SF47-2421.44447212.5%45%

Production

Receptions37
Targets50
Receiving yards342
Carries5
Rushing yards31
Touchdowns3
Points per game5.31
Yards per target6.84
Catch rate74%
Yards per carry6.2

Role

Snap share40.24%
Target share9.69%
Air-yards share4.9%
WOPR0.179
RACR1.349

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.1
Yards after catch per reception7.9
Yards before catch per reception1.3
Total YAC294
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted112.2
Receiving EPA per game0.43
Rushing EPA per game0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share11.9%
End-zone target share3.4%
Red-zone carry share2.6%
Expected receiving TDs1.81
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.19
Expected rushing TDs0.18

Who else ate

The offense threw it 543 times. He took 9.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride28.11%
Marvin Harrison22.18%
Michael Wilson13.58%
James Conner10.52%
Greg Dortch 9.56%
Elijah Higgins4.59%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 41.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.3 in those and 4.99 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · ARI · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against PHI — 15.2 PPR on 7 targets and a 22.6% target share, in a game that finished 35-31. His worst was Week 10 against ATL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 25-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.4; in the 10 decided by more, 3.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 4.03, 8.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS16-20000000%0%
2NYG28-31000000%0%
3DAL28-16000000%0%
4SF16-35000000%1%
5CIN20-34000000%2%
6LA9-26001002.6%21%
7SEA10-20000000%6%
9CLE0-271.211205%42%
10ATL25-23000000%2%
11HOU16-2113.66876027.6%75%
12LA14-3711.73927120.5%76%
13PIT24-102.91319013%69%
15SF29-454231507.9%65%
16CHI16-2712.52545113.5%79%
17PHI35-3115.27782022.6%82%
18SEA20-213.42414013.8%67%

Production

Receptions24
Targets41
Receiving yards280
Carries1
Rushing yards5
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.03
Yards per target6.83
Catch rate58.54%
Yards per carry5

Role

Snap share36.69%
Target share7.91%
Air-yards share9.91%
WOPR0.189
RACR0.389

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.5
Yards after catch per reception6.3
Yards before catch per reception5.3
Total YAC152
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted95.6
Receiving EPA per game0.3
Rushing EPA per game-0.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share5%
End-zone target share4.2%
Expected receiving TDs0.69
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.31

Who else ate

The offense threw it 555 times. He took 7.59% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride19.63%
Marquise Brown18.7%
Rondale Moore11.48%
Michael Wilson10.74%
Zach Ertz7.96%
Greg Dortch 7.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kyler Murray8397.917.1314.86%
Joshua Dobbs71000.37%
Clayton Tune111.225%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.22 in those and 5.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · ARI · 16 games

His best game was Week 16 against TB — 22.3 PPR on 11 targets and a 26.2% target share, in a game that finished 16-19. His worst was Week 15 against DEN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 15-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 9 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 7.19, 5.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1KC21-4413.3796300025%91%
2LV29-2315.544550018.5%71%
3LA12-20179108000018.2%81%
4CAR26-161.61160003.2%36%
5PHI17-2000000000%3%
6SEA9-1900000000%6%
7NO42-347.61151113.4%53%
8MIN26-343.223120007%26%
9SEA21-311.31101303%8%
10LA27-1700000000%3%
11SF10-3819.391010300023.8%93%
14NE13-2700000000%5%
15DEN15-2400000000%9%
16TB16-1922.3101198325026.2%76%
17ATL19-205.54101500026.3%81%
18SF13-388.54430215014.8%69%

Production

Receptions52
Targets64
Receiving yards467
Carries7
Rushing yards44
Touchdowns2
Points per game7.19
Yards per target7.3
Catch rate81.25%
Yards per carry6.29

Role

Snap share44.44%
Target share9.96%
Air-yards share6.41%
WOPR0.194
RACR1.635

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.9
Yards after catch per reception5.6
Yards before catch per reception3.3
Total YAC293
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted107.5
Receiving EPA per game0.75
Rushing EPA per game0.12

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share10.4%
End-zone target share5%
Red-zone carry share2.8%
Goal-line carry share4.8%
Expected receiving TDs1.71
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.29
Expected rushing TDs0.48

Who else ate

The offense threw it 663 times. He took 10.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marquise Brown16.88%
DeAndre Hopkins15.14%
Zach Ertz10.88%
Greg Dortch 10.09%
James Conner9.15%
Rondale Moore8.83%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kyler Murray9296.617.627.59%
Colt McCoy4104.8310.35.95%
David Blough21473.2120.55%
Trace McSorley11122.38.9126.2%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 35.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.7 in those and 10.16 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · ARI · 5 games

His best game was Week 17 against DAL — 4.4 PPR on 1 targets and a 2.7% target share, in a game that finished 25-22. His worst was Week 16 against IND at 0, on 0 targets, final score 16-22. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 1.38, 32.7% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
9SF31-17000000%6%
10CAR10-34000000%2%
16IND16-22000000%0%
17DAL25-224.4111002.7%22%
18SEA30-382.522505.1%16%

Production

Receptions3
Targets3
Receiving yards15
Carries1
Rushing yards24
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.38
Yards per target5
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry24

Role

Snap share9.2%
Target share1.56%
Air-yards share-1.18%
WOPR0.014
RACR0

Efficiency

Average depth of target-5.3
Yards after catch per reception10.3
Yards before catch per reception-5.3
Total YAC31
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted87.5
Receiving EPA per game-0.07
Rushing EPA per game0.29

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.2%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 590 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Christian Kirk18.07%
A.J. Green16.14%
Zach Ertz14.21%
DeAndre Hopkins11.23%
Rondale Moore11.23%
Chase Edmonds9.3%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kyler Murray332.352.6%
Colt McCoy2000%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 5 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 2.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Greg Dortch →
All player profiles · 2026 rankings · Research findings · Methodology
GWTTKB publishes research and education. Nothing here is betting advice.