What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 61.9 overall.
Jalen Hurts scored 313.18 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 314. That gap of 0.8 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 61.9 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 13: rushing TDs went down from 0.7 to 0, a 100% change, at 3.07 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offence around him got worse at moving the ball. He also missed Weeks 9, 18.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a genuine decline in play. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 18.42 points per game on 110 targets — down 15% from his 2024 rate with PHI. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the targets he drew, where they came from on the field, and how far downfield they travelled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 314 points — 18.5 per game. He scored 0.8 FEWER than that, a 0.3% shortfall.
3 of his 16 games produced 25 or more points: Week 3 against LA (29.04), Week 8 against NYG (25.36), Week 12 against DAL (30.86). Strip them and the remaining 13 games average 16.6.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 2 games came in under 10 points, including Week 14 against LAC (2.4) and Week 17 against BUF (8.9).
The three largest overshoots — Week 8 (+12.9), Week 15 (+10.5), Week 7 (+10.1) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
2 of his 6 seasons ran hot: 2022 (+19.7%), 2024 (+19.5%). 1 came in below what the usage justified: 2020 (-8.8%). Across all 6 he has scored 149.1 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 90 graded prop lines, he has gone over 41.1% of the time. On rushing attempts specifically the number is 33.3% across 30 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 7.3%.
That cuts against him. A book that has him beaten 67% of the time on his most-graded market is not a market being slow — it is a market that has him priced correctly and a player who keeps falling short of it.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 52.7% rate and he converted at 53.3% — a gap of 0.6 points, which is noise.
Across 1,151 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. f_teamImplLevel (r 0.146) carry.
So the figures worth weighing for him: , on the field for 97.6% of snaps. He finished 8 at the position — QB1.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offences beat theirs systematically. Over 111 games, PHI has come in +1.06 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 49% of weeks.
That is a real structural tailwind. Every skill player in this offence gets a small, repeatable bonus the market prices late.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 349.8 points, 20.8 per game across 16.8 expected games — 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns. That is QB2, 62 overall, and 28 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
last season's drop-off is attributed almost entirely to the previous OC scaling back his designed rushing role on purpose — ran the ball at roughly two-thirds his career rate, scored barely half his typical rushing-TD total. League-wide chatter questioning his pure passing ability creates real pressure on the new staff to lean back into rushing as the proven part of his game that's hardest for any team to replicate.
That is the current read. It has held since 2026-06-05.
It rests on one of our draft principles:
The books do not agree on him. Jalen Hurts is a board split: ESPN takes him ~54, Underdog lets him slide to ~72 (16.3-pick gap). That 16.3-pick gap between ESPN and Underdog is the practical thing to act on: in a Underdog-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 61.9 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 16.3 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on underdog and earliest on espn: sleeper 67.2, espn 53.8, yahoo 56.4, underdog 71.5, cbs 70.1.
At 61.9 you are paying a WR2 price for a player whose median outcome is a WR2 season with five weeks that win you the game outright and four that lose it. The bust rate of 20% is real and so is the 34% boom rate.
The call: fair value, not a discount. The reason to take him is the ceiling and the betting record. The reason to pass is that you are buying a profile that has beaten its expected output four years running and only needs to stop once.
Ask the Coach about Jalen Hurts Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realised usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 90 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.