Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.02 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 16.1.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 761 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB46 |
New Orleans Saints returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Tyler Shough at quarterback, Kellen Moore as head coach, Doug Nussmeier calling it. The offense projects to 34.1 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Jordyn Tyson (wr2), Bryce Lance (wr5), Barion Brown (wr6), Bub Means (wr7), Travis Etienne Jr. (rb1), Oscar Delp (te2). Out: Kevin Austin Jr (wr3), Brandin Cooks (wr4), Taysom Hill (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Chris Olave | 22.1% |
| Jordyn Tyson | 18.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.2% |
| Devaughn Vele | 8.3% |
| Oscar Delp | 7.1% |
| Barion Brown | 6.6% |
Key additions: signed RB Travis Etienne Jr in free agency on massive 4 year deal. Signed TE Noah Fant. Drafted TE oscar Delp. Drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Saints draft Jordyn Tyson 8th overall. To start he will likely be the 1B in the offense behind Chris Olave. Hurts Olave potential, but Olave is highly talented WR. Shough surrounded with Weapons in New Orleans by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency (lots of potential to be high producer). Alvin Kamara value is toast. Interested to see how Olave & Tyson split target share & if the rest of the offense other than Etienne holds fantasy value. Vele is a slept on and talented WR that could also break out in 2026. His breakout to slow down the Jordyn Tyson full breakout year 1.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Tyler Shough returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34.1 att/g.
Base case 127.5 PPR points, with a bear case of 22.7 and a bull case of 260.2, and a comp mean of 135.6. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2013 | 179.7 | 0.5 |
| Mike Vick 2012 | 101.2 | 0.6 |
| Aidan O'Connell 2023 | 93.5 | 0.6 |
| Jon Kitna 2010 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| Jay Cutler 2013 | 255.6 | 0.6 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 7th percentile and his value in the 17th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: NO rates 21.4 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.9 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -17.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 2021 | 8.6 | 33% | -16.4% |
| Sam Howell | 2023 | 15.1 | 23% | -21.9% |
| Zach Wilson | 2022 | 11 | 22% | -21.1% |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | 11.7 | 21% | -46.4% |
| Matthew Stafford | 2020 | 16.3 | 21% | +9.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 5, pick 150 by NOR |
| College | South Carolina |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 211 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.95s |
| Vertical | 32″ |
| Broad jump | 108″ |
| 3-cone | 7.21s |
| Shuttle | 4.37s |
His best game was Week 2 against SF — 21.68 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 21-26. His worst was Week 15 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-17. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.1; in the 5 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 11.02, 31.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 11.46 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 21.68 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 11.72 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 96% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 13.94 | 0 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 4% | 100% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 16.1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 3.2% | 94% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 11.08 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 98% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 10.52 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 2.64 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 15 | CAR | 20-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 2 |
| Carries | 31 |
| Rushing yards | 167 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 11.02 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Yards per carry | 5.39 |
| Snap share | 81.67% |
| Target share | 0.8% |
| Air-yards share | 0.36% |
| WOPR | 0.014 |
| Average depth of target | 2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 0 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 16.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.57 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.51 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.18 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 2 | 13.79 | 0 | 1.03% |
| Tyler Shough | 2 | 0 | 1.32 | — | 0% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 14.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.18 in those and 11.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against TB — 14.7 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 19-27. His worst was Week 16 against GB at 4.92, on 0 targets, final score 0-34. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 9.61, 42% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | 12.42 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DEN | 10-33 | 6.28 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 93% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 6.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 62% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 62% |
| 16 | GB | 0-34 | 4.92 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | LV | 10-25 | 13.32 | 0 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | TB | 19-27 | 14.7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 18 |
| Rushing yards | 146 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.61 |
| Yards per carry | 8.11 |
| Snap share | 88.14% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.94 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 551 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
4 of his 7 games were blowouts, 44.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.46 in those and 12.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Spencer Rattler →