Bryce Lance
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR81 to WR102. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- share of NO's air yards up from 11% to 21% (last 2 games vs the three before)
- 8.2% target share (99th of 103 WRs)
- 2.1 PPR points a game (102nd of 103 WRs)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 1.7–5.3 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: receiving EPA -0.3, college target/carry share -0.3, college seasons +0.3, power-conference college +0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14NO
NYGUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a NO team total of 23.5. Rank is among every WR we project this week.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Davante Adams (W2, 39.5 PPR, 8/10 195 yds); Wan'Dale Robinson (W3, 18.7 PPR, 7/11 57 yds); Michael Wilson (W4, 16.5 PPR, 7/13 95 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #14 against the pass, #30 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points NYG allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Bryce Lance's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
0-0 rec on 3 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
NO +7 (closing) · total 49.5 · indoors · 7 days rest
Projected 4.1 (WR82) · NO +8.5 (closing) · total 45.5 · 79°F, wind 10 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 3.4 (WR95) · NO -3.5 (closing) · total 43.5 · indoors · 7 days rest
Projected 3.2 (WR91) · NO -1.5 (closing) · total 47.5 · indoors · 8 days rest · prime time · division game
Projected 2.5 (WR94) · NO +2.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · indoors · 6 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 74.0% | 66.3% | −7.7 |
| Target share | 5.4% | 10.2% | +4.8 |
| Air-yard share | 6.1% | 19.6% | +13.5 |
| Targets a game | 2.5 | 3.7 | +1.2 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
NO target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
0 TDs on 0.69 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 16 | 5-57-0 | 3.68.2 | -0.950.27 |
| Red zone6% of targets | 1 | 1-7-0 | 7.04.4 | 0.570.18 |
| Inside the 106% of targets | 1 | 1-7-0 | 7.02.4 | 0.57-0.01 |
| Third down38% of targets | 6 | 0-0-0 | 0.07.1 | -2.240.14 |
| Score within 763% of targets | 10 | 3-42-0 | 4.28.1 | -1.190.26 |
| Trailing by 8+38% of targets | 6 | 2-15-0 | 2.58.2 | -0.560.28 |
| Two-minute drill25% of targets | 4 | 2-34-0 | 8.57.5 | 0.560.17 |
| Vs. the blitz19% of targets | 3 | 0-0-0 | 0.07.9 | -1.090.23 |
| No blitz81% of targets | 13 | 5-57-0 | 4.48.4 | -0.920.29 |
| Play action13% of targets | 2 | 2-26-0 | 13.010.4 | 0.970.41 |
| With motion56% of targets | 9 | 2-22-0 | 2.48.3 | -1.000.32 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 6 of his 16 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 1 of 1 contested caught.
Team
NONew Orleans Saints offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs DET | 30-31 | 21.3 | 71%+1.6 | Shough56 att |
| W2vs BAL | 24-17 | 18.5 | 58%−3.1 | Shough34 att |
| W3vs LV | 27-35 | 23.5 | 61%−1.2 | Shough42 att |
| W4vs ATL | 24-45 | 24.5 | 73%−1.0 | Shough48 att |
| W5vs MIN | 13-23 | 19.5 | 61%−11.6 | Shough25 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Kellen Moore. QB: Tyler Shough (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Bryce Lance is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026NO | 5 | 5-57-016 tgt, 8.3% share | 1.6WR127 | 5.7−17.8 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,528). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 24 valued near #239 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 132 players' worth).
170.0 overall, WR112. ESPN 170.0 · Underdog 216.0
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025North Dakota State | 13 | 51-1,079-8 | 34.8% | 37.4 |
| 2024North Dakota State | 14 | 60-821-13 | 25.6% | 32.5 |
| 2023North Dakota State | 2 | 1-7-0 | 1.8% | 0.9 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.