RB · JAX · GWTTKB

Travis Etienne — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.94 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 44.2, usage worth 14.5.

27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 44.2
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 4, 8.5 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on sleeper.
SLEEPER41.7
ESPN50.2
YAHOO42.9
UNDERDOG42.2
CBS42
FFA38

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 4, pick 8 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB19
Bye week8
ADP standard deviation4 picks

The offense he plays in, 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.

In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Bhaysul Tuten50.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.38.2%
LeQuint Allen Jr.8%
DeeJay dallas2.9%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.

Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.

Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.

Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-2.4 · harder
Weeks 12–17+0.4 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+6.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +38.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Tony Pollard202313.170%+4.4%
D'Andre Swift202312.563%+0.6%
Zack Moss202312.163%-2%
J.K. Dobbins202414.862%+0.7%
Josh Jacobs202313.961%+44.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 0 lost it and 3 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,00020222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2021-04 to 2026-07. Down 31% across the series, peaking at 6,470.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2021, round 1, pick 25 by JAX
CollegeClemson
Age at draft22
Height5′10″
Weight215 lb
40-yard dash4.45s
Vertical33.5″
Broad jump128″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game13.2
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate24.1%
Bust rate22.2%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.17

The record, season by season

2025 · JAX · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 31.5 PPR on 16 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 48-20. His worst was Week 18 against TEN at 4.8, on 15 touches, final score 41-7. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 8 decided by more, 15.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 14.94, 6.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 2.71 expected, a gap of 3.3.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR26-1018.6331316143010.3%61%
2CIN27-3116.92318147117.3%66%
3HOU17-1011.6020165615.3%54%
4SF26-2119.51211912416.7%60%
5KC31-288.83491249016%59%
6SEA12-209.545281227011.9%62%
7LA7-356.5131184406.4%55%
9LV30-2916.555312284015.2%57%
10HOU29-3615.724191658117.4%56%
11LAC35-619.3020197329.1%49%
12ARI27-2420.634301586113.3%65%
13TEN25-35.11113122804%49%
14IND36-1921.2118207423.2%72%
15NYJ48-2031.534731232314.3%61%
16DEN34-2016.645161650114.3%70%
17IND23-1711.22316177608.1%70%
18TEN41-74.8116143203.2%56%

Production

Receptions36
Targets52
Receiving yards292
Carries260
Rushing yards1,107
Touchdowns13
Points per game14.94
Yards per target5.62
Catch rate69.23%
Yards per carry4.26

Role

Snap share60.12%
Target share9.76%
Air-yards share-1.68%
WOPR0.135
RACR-0.256

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.3
Yards after catch per reception9.4
Yards before catch per reception-1.3
Total YAC339
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted121.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.54
Rushing EPA per game-1.12

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share12%
End-zone target share2.7%
Red-zone carry share46.7%
Goal-line carry share36.4%
Expected receiving TDs2.71
Actual receiving TDs6
Receiving TD luck3.29
Expected rushing TDs7.98

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game14 of 49
Yards per target31 of 49
Target share21 of 49
Air-yards share39 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. He took 10.36% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Parker Washington18.92%
Brian Thomas18.13%
Jakobi Meyers12.15%
Brenton Strange11.95%
Travis Etienne 10.36%
Dyami Brown7.37%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 34.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.73 in those and 14.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · JAX · 15 games

His best game was Week 2 against CLE — 14.8 PPR on 17 touches and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 13-18. His worst was Week 6 against CHI at -0.1, on 4 touches, final score 16-35. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.3; in the 3 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 8.68, 26.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.2 expected, a gap of -1.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIA17-2011.923151244115.8%70%
2CLE13-1814.83461352114.8%72%
3BUF10-4712.546171168013.6%69%
4HOU20-2471210115006.3%52%
5IND37-34126743617020.6%38%
6CHI16-35-0.10103-102.9%18%
9PHI23-285236324010%31%
10MIN7-125.311-1114404.8%68%
11DET6-526.33361227010.7%75%
13HOU20-238.83312134607.1%53%
14TEN10-6114450420013.3%47%
15NYJ25-3212.545201465011.6%73%
16LV14-195.7231592208.6%52%
17TEN20-138.51226154909.5%48%
18IND23-26935291331016.1%43%

Production

Receptions39
Targets52
Receiving yards254
Carries150
Rushing yards558
Touchdowns2
Points per game8.68
Yards per target4.88
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry3.72

Role

Snap share53.93%
Target share11.05%
Air-yards share0.04%
WOPR0.166
RACR-2.634

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.2
Yards after catch per reception7.6
Yards before catch per reception-1.1
Total YAC296
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted76.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.33
Rushing EPA per game-1.77

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share9.5%
End-zone target share2.9%
Red-zone carry share30%
Goal-line carry share22.7%
Expected receiving TDs1.2
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.2
Expected rushing TDs3.23

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game35 of 46
Yards per target34 of 46
Target share16 of 46
Air-yards share12 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. He took 9.96% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brian Thomas25.48%
Evan Engram12.26%
Brenton Strange10.15%
Travis Etienne 9.96%
Parker Washington9.77%
Christian Kirk9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Mac Jones8268.396.0410.21%
Trevor Lawrence7269.013.7312%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 14.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.23 in those and 9.29 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · JAX · 17 games

His best game was Week 5 against BUF — 36.4 PPR on 31 touches and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 25-20. His worst was Week 16 against TB at 6.1, on 9 touches, final score 12-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.1; in the 10 decided by more, 15.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 16.61, 5.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1IND31-2121.455271877115.6%80%
2KC9-176.2232124007.3%72%
3HOU17-3717.845501988012.5%71%
4ATL23-710.233172055010%85%
5BUF25-2036.4454826136213.5%83%
6IND37-2023.333281855210.7%80%
7NO31-2422.735241453216.7%88%
8PIT20-1025.936702479118.8%89%
10SF3-346.4249935012.9%61%
11TEN34-148.9337145209.7%66%
12HOU24-2112.646302056016.2%62%
13CIN31-3417.944341145110.3%62%
14CLE27-3117.24437143518.2%78%
15BAL7-239.946281031014.3%69%
16TB12-306.1331961206.8%73%
17CAR26-025.822161610228.7%62%
18TEN20-2813.756301657014.6%66%

Production

Receptions58
Targets73
Receiving yards476
Carries267
Rushing yards1,008
Touchdowns12
Points per game16.61
Yards per target6.52
Catch rate79.45%
Yards per carry3.78

Role

Snap share73.35%
Target share12.16%
Air-yards share-1.52%
WOPR0.172
RACR-5.028

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.8
Yards after catch per reception8.9
Yards before catch per reception-0.7
Total YAC517
Broken tackles12
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted98.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.57
Rushing EPA per game-1.92

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share56.5%
Goal-line carry share57.9%
Expected receiving TDs0.27
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.27
Expected rushing TDs6.42

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game7 of 49
Yards per target10 of 49
Target share16 of 49
Air-yards share39 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 619 times. He took 12.03% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram23.56%
Calvin Ridley22.41%
Christian Kirk14%
Travis Etienne 12.03%
Zay Jones10.54%
Jamal Agnew3.46%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Trevor Lawrence167116.046.4812.38%
C.J. Beathard1225.888.7%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.72 in those and 18.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · JAX · 17 games

His best game was Week 9 against LV — 26.6 PPR on 30 touches and a 6.9% target share, in a game that finished 27-20. His worst was Week 12 against BAL at 0.3, on 2 touches, final score 28-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 7 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 12.06, 1.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.26 expected, a gap of -1.3.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS22-288.52418447010.5%51%
2IND24-08.33333920010%37%
3LAC38-1010.53330134507.9%43%
4PHI21-293.201083204.3%51%
5HOU6-1314.435431071011.4%53%
6IND27-3412.82222108609.1%46%
7NYG17-2318.915514114111.6%80%
8DEN17-2125.233624156110.7%79%
9LV27-2026.622172810926.9%81%
10KC17-2710.33328114507.7%78%
12BAL28-270.30002300%8%
13DET14-407.63312135409.1%88%
14TEN36-223.2000173200%75%
15DAL40-3412.723241910307.3%73%
16NYJ19-314.233292283010%71%
17HOU31-32333329108110.7%38%
18TEN20-165.4221771706.9%55%

Production

Receptions35
Targets45
Receiving yards316
Carries220
Rushing yards1,125
Touchdowns5
Points per game12.06
Yards per target7.02
Catch rate77.78%
Yards per carry5.11

Role

Snap share59.24%
Target share7.89%
Air-yards share-0.27%
WOPR0.116
RACR0.239

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.3
Yards after catch per reception10.1
Yards before catch per reception-1
Total YAC352
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted95.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.28
Rushing EPA per game-0.51

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share6.7%
End-zone target share2.3%
Red-zone carry share51.6%
Goal-line carry share48.4%
Expected receiving TDs1.26
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.26
Expected rushing TDs8.88

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game22 of 42
Yards per target5 of 42
Target share25 of 42
Air-yards share25 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 596 times. He took 7.84% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Christian Kirk23.17%
Zay Jones21.08%
Evan Engram17.07%
Marvin Jones14.11%
Travis Etienne 7.84%
Jamal Agnew5.23%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.35 in those and 12.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Travis Etienne →
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