Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.15 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 145.2, usage worth 13.1.
31 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 162 |
| ESPN | 156.7 |
| YAHOO | 126.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 163 |
| CBS | 135.5 |
| FFA | 132 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 1 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB45 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 16.8 picks |
Our board has him at 122.8 points, 7.7 per game — 343 rushing yards, 2.1 rushing TDs, 38.4 catches. That is RB5, 131 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.7 points per game to a ceiling of 20.4, with the median at 7.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 65%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 145.2 on consensus and our board has him 131. We rank him 14.2 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
New Orleans Saints returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Tyler Shough at quarterback, Kellen Moore as head coach, Doug Nussmeier calling it. The offense projects to 34.1 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Jordyn Tyson (wr2), Bryce Lance (wr5), Barion Brown (wr6), Bub Means (wr7), Travis Etienne Jr. (rb1), Oscar Delp (te2). Out: Kevin Austin Jr (wr3), Brandin Cooks (wr4), Taysom Hill (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 45.2% |
| Alvin Kamara ← | 28.9% |
| Kendre Miller | 14.5% |
| Devin Neal | 11.5% |
Key additions: signed RB Travis Etienne Jr in free agency on massive 4 year deal. Signed TE Noah Fant. Drafted TE oscar Delp. Drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Saints draft Jordyn Tyson 8th overall. To start he will likely be the 1B in the offense behind Chris Olave. Hurts Olave potential, but Olave is highly talented WR. Shough surrounded with Weapons in New Orleans by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency (lots of potential to be high producer). Alvin Kamara value is toast. Interested to see how Olave & Tyson split target share & if the rest of the offense other than Etienne holds fantasy value. Vele is a slept on and talented WR that could also break out in 2026. His breakout to slow down the Jordyn Tyson full breakout year 1.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Tyler Shough returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34.1 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 28.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 6.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 104 |
| Last season, carries per game | 11.9 |
That is a reduction of 5.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.9 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: NO rates 21.4 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +9 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | Mark Ingram | +12 |
| 2025 | 6 | Devin Neal | +7.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Jordan Mims | +4.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -45.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 2023 | 12.3 | 50% | +5.2% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2023 | 10.3 | 50% | -69.6% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2024 | 12 | 46% | -0.4% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2024 | 11 | 41% | -69.3% |
| James Conner | 2022 | 15.4 | 40% | +29.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 3, pick 67 by NOR |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56s |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 131″ |
| Career PPR per game | 16.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 14.3% |
| Bust rate | 23.8% |
| Games missed per season | 2 |
| Injury history | Knee, Groin |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.69 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against SF — 16 PPR on 27 touches and a 17.6% target share, in a game that finished 21-26. His worst was Week 9 against LA at 0.7, on 9 touches, final score 10-34. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.1; in the 8 decided by more, 7.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 9.15, 30.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.03 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 13.7 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 4.9% | 79% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 99 | 0 | 17.6% | 86% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 6.6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 42 | 0 | 4.9% | 74% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 11.2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 70 | 0 | 20% | 73% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 9.5 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 19.4% | 56% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 12.6 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 19.2% | 62% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 5.9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 0 | 9.7% | 84% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 4% | 51% |
| 9 | LA | 10-34 | 0.7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 59% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-7 | 14.5 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 22 | 83 | 0 | 11.5% | 63% |
| 12 | ATL | 10-24 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 4.7% | 14% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 186 |
| Carries | 131 |
| Rushing yards | 471 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 9.15 |
| Yards per target | 4.77 |
| Catch rate | 84.62% |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 |
| Snap share | 63.73% |
| Target share | 11.67% |
| Air-yards share | 0.77% |
| WOPR | 0.182 |
| RACR | -0.745 |
| Average depth of target | 0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.5 |
| Total YAC | 202 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.62 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 24.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.03 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.03 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.74 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 34 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 41 of 49 |
| Target share | 12 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 49 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 6.93% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara ← | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 29 | 10.79 | 4.24 | 13.67% |
| Tyler Shough | 4 | 10 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 8.18% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 13.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.6 in those and 14.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against DAL — 44 PPR on 23 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 44-19. His worst was Week 7 against DEN at 8.4, on 14 touches, final score 10-33. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.5; in the 7 decided by more, 19.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 20.4 points per game. He scored 18.95, 7.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 47-10 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 15 | 83 | 1 | 20.8% | 52% |
| 2 | DAL | 44-19 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 65 | 20 | 115 | 4 | 20% | 63% |
| 3 | PHI | 12-15 | 15.7 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 26 | 87 | 0 | 13% | 86% |
| 4 | ATL | 24-26 | 24.9 | 7 | 9 | 42 | 19 | 77 | 1 | 25% | 82% |
| 5 | KC | 13-26 | 12.6 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 25% | 89% |
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | 17.4 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 21.1% | 74% |
| 7 | DEN | 10-33 | 8.4 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 17.9% | 57% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 18.2 | 6 | 11 | 55 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 28.9% | 55% |
| 9 | CAR | 22-23 | 27.5 | 6 | 9 | 60 | 29 | 155 | 0 | 32.1% | 77% |
| 10 | ATL | 20-17 | 15.9 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 17 | 55 | 0 | 28.6% | 81% |
| 11 | CLE | 35-14 | 12.9 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 67 | 0 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 13 | LA | 14-21 | 15.9 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 112 | 0 | 17.6% | 86% |
| 14 | NYG | 14-11 | 12.9 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 44 | 0 | 16.1% | 72% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 58 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 17.2% | 45% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 543 |
| Carries | 228 |
| Rushing yards | 950 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 18.95 |
| Yards per target | 6.1 |
| Catch rate | 76.4% |
| Yards per carry | 4.17 |
| Snap share | 70.86% |
| Target share | 21.26% |
| Air-yards share | 2.23% |
| WOPR | 0.335 |
| RACR | -1.105 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 542 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 14% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 54.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 64.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.84 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.84 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.18 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 22 of 46 |
| Target share | 1 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 46 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 17.35% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara ← | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 10 | 58 | 20.43 | 6.76 | 21.25% |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 31 | 15.25 | 4.87 | 21.28% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 46.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.48 in those and 18.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against JAX — 29.3 PPR on 31 touches and a 26.4% target share, in a game that finished 24-31. His worst was Week 17 against TB at 6.9, on 12 touches, final score 23-13. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 7 decided by more, 17.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.2 points per game. He scored 17.92, 1.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TB | 9-26 | 21.4 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 36.8% | 75% |
| 5 | NE | 34-0 | 18.7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 80 | 1 | 12% | 63% |
| 6 | HOU | 13-20 | 17.4 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 19 | 68 | 0 | 17.4% | 80% |
| 7 | JAX | 24-31 | 29.3 | 12 | 14 | 91 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 26.4% | 73% |
| 8 | IND | 38-27 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 17 | 59 | 2 | 17.2% | 58% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 15.6% | 49% |
| 10 | MIN | 19-27 | 18.5 | 7 | 7 | 33 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 17.5% | 76% |
| 12 | ATL | 15-24 | 15.9 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 15 | 69 | 0 | 13.5% | 64% |
| 13 | DET | 28-33 | 28.9 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 27.6% | 58% |
| 14 | CAR | 28-6 | 13.5 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 12 | 56 | 1 | 18.2% | 54% |
| 15 | NYG | 24-6 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 16 | 66 | 0 | 17.9% | 52% |
| 16 | LA | 22-30 | 8.5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 15% | 73% |
| 17 | TB | 23-13 | 6.9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 5.9% | 33% |
| Receptions | 75 |
| Targets | 86 |
| Receiving yards | 466 |
| Carries | 180 |
| Rushing yards | 694 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 17.92 |
| Yards per target | 5.42 |
| Catch rate | 87.21% |
| Yards per carry | 3.86 |
| Snap share | 62.15% |
| Target share | 18.54% |
| Air-yards share | 0.12% |
| WOPR | 0.278 |
| RACR | 4.975 |
| Average depth of target | 0.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.5 |
| Total YAC | 501 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 41.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 48% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.09 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 22 of 49 |
| Target share | 2 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 49 |
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 14.93% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara ← | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 12 | 79 | 17.88 | 5.48 | 18.62% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 7 | 18.5 | 4.71 | 17.5% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 29.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.4 in those and 18.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against LV — 42.8 PPR on 28 touches and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 24-0. His worst was Week 13 against TB at 5.7, on 15 touches, final score 16-17. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.6; in the 5 decided by more, 15.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 14.11, 16.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 27-26 | 7.6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 12.5% | 62% |
| 3 | CAR | 14-22 | 7.3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 0 | 17.9% | 70% |
| 5 | SEA | 39-32 | 23.4 | 6 | 6 | 91 | 23 | 103 | 0 | 24% | 73% |
| 6 | CIN | 26-30 | 18.4 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 19 | 99 | 0 | 29% | 69% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-42 | 17.5 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 19.6% | 72% |
| 8 | LV | 24-0 | 42.8 | 9 | 10 | 96 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 33.3% | 72% |
| 9 | BAL | 13-27 | 9.2 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 14.3% | 88% |
| 10 | PIT | 10-20 | 7.5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 14.3% | 79% |
| 11 | LA | 27-20 | 12.9 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 18.5% | 70% |
| 12 | SF | 0-13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 23.3% | 67% |
| 13 | TB | 16-17 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 10.7% | 59% |
| 15 | ATL | 21-18 | 12.4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 91 | 0 | 10.5% | 62% |
| 16 | CLE | 17-10 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 20 | 76 | 1 | 28.6% | 70% |
| 17 | PHI | 20-10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 73 | 0 | 4.3% | 58% |
| 18 | CAR | 7-10 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 107 | 0 | 8% | 75% |
| Receptions | 57 |
| Targets | 77 |
| Receiving yards | 490 |
| Carries | 223 |
| Rushing yards | 897 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 14.11 |
| Yards per target | 6.36 |
| Catch rate | 74.03% |
| Yards per carry | 4.02 |
| Snap share | 69.73% |
| Target share | 17.92% |
| Air-yards share | 1.53% |
| WOPR | 0.28 |
| RACR | 11.932 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.4 |
| Total YAC | 465 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.74 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 41% |
| Goal-line carry share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.17 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 42 |
| Target share | 2 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 42 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 15.71% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 24.29% |
| Alvin Kamara ← | 15.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 13.27% |
| Jarvis Landry | 7.96% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 6.94% |
| Marquez Callaway | 6.53% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 13 | 66 | 15.14 | 7.14 | 18.34% |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 11 | 7.45 | 1.73 | 15.2% |
1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 20.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 42.8 in those and 13.62 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against SEA — 33.9 PPR on 31 touches and a 34.4% target share, in a game that finished 13-10. His worst was Week 15 against TB at 5.1, on 17 touches, final score 9-0. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.8; in the 9 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.4 points per game. He scored 18.05, 6.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.9 expected, a gap of 2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 38-3 | 18.1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 83 | 1 | 20% | 73% |
| 2 | CAR | 7-26 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 28.6% | 84% |
| 3 | NE | 28-13 | 20.8 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 89 | 1 | 20% | 84% |
| 4 | NYG | 21-27 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 120 | 0 | 0% | 87% |
| 5 | WAS | 33-22 | 29.2 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 16 | 71 | 2 | 28.6% | 88% |
| 7 | SEA | 13-10 | 33.9 | 10 | 11 | 128 | 20 | 51 | 1 | 34.4% | 82% |
| 8 | TB | 36-27 | 16.6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 61 | 1 | 11.4% | 67% |
| 9 | ATL | 25-27 | 20.4 | 4 | 7 | 54 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 16.7% | 68% |
| 14 | NYJ | 30-9 | 24.5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 120 | 1 | 23.8% | 74% |
| 15 | TB | 9-0 | 5.1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 24% | 61% |
| 16 | MIA | 3-20 | 7.9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 22.2% | 60% |
| 17 | CAR | 18-10 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 13 | 32 | 1 | 26.1% | 78% |
| 18 | ATL | 30-20 | 18.2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 146 | 0 | 8.7% | 78% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 67 |
| Receiving yards | 439 |
| Carries | 240 |
| Rushing yards | 898 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 18.05 |
| Yards per target | 6.55 |
| Catch rate | 70.15% |
| Yards per carry | 3.74 |
| Snap share | 75.69% |
| Target share | 20.35% |
| Air-yards share | 3.11% |
| WOPR | 0.326 |
| RACR | 2.799 |
| Average depth of target | 1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 432 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.83 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -3.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.9% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 54.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 64.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.78 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 14 of 50 |
| Target share | 1 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 50 |
The offense threw it 503 times. He took 14.23% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquez Callaway | 17.83% |
| Alvin Kamara ← | 14.23% |
| Deonte Harty | 12.53% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 10.62% |
| Adam Trautman | 9.13% |
| Mark Ingram | 5.52% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 33 | 20.17 | 7.3 | 21.93% |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 13 | 18.4 | 6.54 | 12.27% |
| unknown | 3 | 17 | 16.87 | 6.24 | 24.63% |
| Ian Book | 1 | 4 | 7.9 | 1.75 | 22.2% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 24.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.38 in those and 21.82 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against MIN — 56.2 PPR on 27 touches and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 52-33. His worst was Week 12 against DEN at 6.2, on 13 touches, final score 31-3. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24; in the 7 decided by more, 26.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 25.19, 28.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 34-23 | 23.7 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 26.7% | 66% |
| 2 | LV | 24-34 | 38.4 | 9 | 9 | 95 | 13 | 79 | 2 | 24.3% | 68% |
| 3 | GB | 30-37 | 44.7 | 13 | 14 | 139 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 40% | 67% |
| 4 | DET | 35-29 | 20.9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 19 | 83 | 1 | 16% | 67% |
| 5 | LAC | 30-27 | 19.9 | 8 | 10 | 74 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 21.3% | 76% |
| 7 | CAR | 27-24 | 22.8 | 8 | 8 | 65 | 14 | 83 | 0 | 22.9% | 73% |
| 8 | CHI | 26-23 | 25.3 | 9 | 13 | 96 | 12 | 67 | 0 | 31.7% | 78% |
| 9 | TB | 38-3 | 15.9 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 17.6% | 51% |
| 10 | SF | 27-13 | 34.8 | 7 | 8 | 83 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 34.8% | 66% |
| 11 | ATL | 24-9 | 10.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 1 | 4.3% | 49% |
| 12 | DEN | 31-3 | 6.2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 14.3% | 48% |
| 13 | ATL | 21-16 | 17.7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 88 | 1 | 8.1% | 62% |
| 14 | PHI | 21-24 | 22.4 | 7 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 27% | 71% |
| 15 | KC | 29-32 | 18.4 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 11 | 54 | 1 | 18.2% | 73% |
| 16 | MIN | 52-33 | 56.2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 155 | 6 | 17.9% | 60% |
| Receptions | 83 |
| Targets | 107 |
| Receiving yards | 756 |
| Carries | 187 |
| Rushing yards | 932 |
| Touchdowns | 21 |
| Points per game | 25.19 |
| Yards per target | 7.07 |
| Catch rate | 77.57% |
| Yards per carry | 4.98 |
| Snap share | 65% |
| Target share | 21.67% |
| Air-yards share | 0.88% |
| WOPR | 0.331 |
| RACR | 7.329 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.3 |
| Total YAC | 731 |
| Broken tackles | 16 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.1% |
| End-zone target share | 3.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 45.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 52.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.35 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.65 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 11.23 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 47 |
| Target share | 1 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 47 |
The offense threw it 522 times. He took 21.23% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara ← | 21.23% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 16.27% |
| Jared Cook | 11.9% |
| Michael Thomas | 10.91% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 9.92% |
| Marquez Callaway | 5.36% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 11 | 91 | 29.18 | 7.75 | 24.67% |
| unknown | 4 | 16 | 14.2 | 3.19 | 13.43% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 20.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26.1 in those and 24.01 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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