RYOE is the most-cited advanced rushing metric in fantasy. Measured against what a back scores next, its correlation is 0.000.
Does rushing yards over expected predict fantasy football production?
RYOE is presented across the industry as a forward-looking efficiency signal — a way to find backs whose talent is outrunning their box score. Some analysts state directly that it predicts future success.
Swept against next-period fantasy scoring across the full database, Next Gen Stats rushing yards over expected returns a correlation of exactly 0.000. It is not weak. It is absent.
| Rushing metric | Forward correlation | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Rush yards over expected | 0.000 | Exactly nothing |
| NGS rushing efficiency | +0.005 | No signal |
| Yards per carry | −0.027 | No signal |
| Eight-plus defenders in box % | −0.081 | No signal |
| Time to line of scrimmage | −0.097 | No signal |
| Red-zone carry share | +0.175 | Real — ceiling factor |
| Rushing first downs | +0.154 | Real — ceiling factor |
| Goal-line carry share | +0.148 | Real — ceiling and only floor factor |
The metric answers a different question than the one fantasy managers ask of it. RYOE measures how a back performed relative to the situation he was handed — and the situation is largely produced by blocking, defensive alignment and game state, none of which belong to the back or carry forward with him. What does carry forward is the role: carries, red-zone and goal-line share, snap rate. Those replicate every season tested.
Every stat field in the database is swept against next-period fantasy points, season by season. A factor is only reported as predictive if it holds the same sign in every season tested. RYOE does not clear that bar because there is no effect to replicate.
Figures on this page come from the GWTTKB methodology report, where the full testing record is published.
This is a statement about forward prediction of fantasy scoring, not about whether RYOE describes what happened. As a descriptive measure of a completed run it is well constructed. It simply does not tell you what a back will score next.