Each pick measured against its own annual median, month by month. The calendar swing is worth several percent, in the same direction, every year.
When are dynasty rookie picks cheapest to buy?
Pick values are usually discussed as though they track only the incoming class — a strong class lifts picks, a weak one sinks them.
There is a calendar pattern underneath the class effect. Measured against each pick’s own annual median, values sag through the late-spring and summer months and firm up through the winter and into the pre-draft window. The swing between the cheap and dear ends of the calendar is worth several percent on the same asset.
Attention is seasonal and dynasty prices are set by attention. In the winter and early spring, incoming rookies are the only thing to talk about and picks are the only way to buy them. By summer, managers are looking at their actual roster and a pick is an abstraction competing against a player who might help now.
Buy in the post-draft lull. Sell into the pre-draft hype cycle. The asset has not changed; the number of people who want it has.
Each pick label is measured as a percentage against its own annual median, so a pick simply appreciating as its draft approaches is not read as seasonality. Months with fewer than 20 observations are dropped.
Figures on this page are read at build time from the same data file the site’s projections use.
This is an aggregate pattern across pick labels and years, worth a few percent — real, and smaller than the swing a single strong incoming class produces. It is a reason to time a trade you were already going to make, not a reason to make one.