When a player spikes, the market posts a fresh number on him within days. The ratio of that number to his new level is the tell.
How do you tell a real fantasy breakout from a mirage?
Breakouts are assessed after the fact, from box scores, once several big games have accumulated and the price has moved.
When a player spikes — last-three scoring at 135% or more of his baseline — or craters to 70% of it, the market posts a fresh line on him within days. The ratio of that fresh number to his new level separates the market believing the change from the market waiting it out.
The sequence is the same every time: role moves first, the market reprices second, the box score confirms third. Reading the second step rather than the third is what buys the time.
Spike and crater windows identified against each player’s own trailing baseline, matched to consensus lines posted in the days following, over two full seasons.
Figures on this page come from the GWTTKB methodology report, where the full testing record is published.
This is an instrument for reading the market’s belief, not a guarantee the market is right. It is most useful where the market and the box score disagree.