An absence does not only move usage between two players. It moves the team’s play mix — and in opposite directions depending on who is out.
Does a fantasy starter’s injury change how the whole offense plays?
Injury analysis models the vacated share as a fixed pie that gets redistributed. The pie is assumed to stay the same size and shape.
It does not. With the lead running back out, team carries fall and targets rise, moving the pass-to-run ratio up. With the lead tight end out it goes the other way — carries rise and targets fall. Quarterback and wide receiver absences barely move the team mix at all.
| Who is out | Pass:run with him in | Pass:run with him out | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | 1.263 | 1.291 | +0.028 |
| RB1 | 1.32 | 1.415 | +0.095 |
| WR1 | 1.34 | 1.347 | +0.007 |
| TE1 | 1.34 | 1.267 | -0.073 |
A team without its lead back has lost the player its run scheme is built around and leans on the passing game instead. A team without its receiving tight end has lost an intermediate passing option and a blocker in the same body, and the cheapest replacement for that combination is running the ball.
When the RB1 is out, the backup inherits a smaller run game than the raw carry share suggests — and the pass-catchers get a mild lift nobody prices.
Team-level carries, targets and pass-to-run ratio in weeks with and without the position’s lead player, across the full absence set.
Figures on this page are read at build time from the same data file the site’s projections use.
These are small shifts on a large base and they describe the average team. A specific offense with an unusual identity will not follow the aggregate.