Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.89 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.4, usage worth 6.4.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| ESPN | 170.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 209.4 |
| FFA | 204 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE68 |
Our board has him at 88.5 points, 5.8 per game — 34 catches, 359 yards, 3.1 TDs. That is TE5, 200 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.7 points per game to a ceiling of 9.6, with the median at 5.8. Boom rate 66%, bust rate 36%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.4 on consensus and our board has him 200. We rank him 29.6 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.
In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.6%, with a bear case of 8.5% and a bull case of 10.6% and a full range of 6.1% to 11.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ja'Marr Chase | 26.9% |
| Tee Higgins | 19.4% |
| Chase Brown | 11.8% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 9.6% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.1% |
| Colbie Young | 6% |
Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~29, prior share 11.1%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 9.3%, p25-p75 [6.1%, 11.4%], tails [0.0%, 14.9%]. Closest comps: Mike Gesicki 2024→2025 (CIN: 11.5%→10.3%); Tyler Eifert 2020→2021 (JAX: 12.0%→0.0%); Richard Rodgers 2020→2021 (PHI: 10.5%→5.9%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
self-anchored 58% to own 11.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 9.3%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.3 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -4.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2024 | 6.4 | 63% | -14.1% |
| Gerald Everett | 2023 | 7.4 | 58% | -55.8% |
| Austin Hooper | 2023 | 3 | 56% | +46.1% |
| Noah Fant | 2024 | 7.4 | 55% | -10.7% |
| Hayden Hurst | 2024 | 2.2 | 55% | -39.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 2, pick 42 by MIA |
| College | Penn St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 247 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54s |
| Vertical | 41.5″ |
| Broad jump | 129″ |
| 3-cone | 6.76s |
| Shuttle | 4.1s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 20.3% |
| Bust rate | 25.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Pectoral |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 14 against BUF — 20.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-39. His worst was Week 3 against MIN at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 10-48. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 7 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 5.89, 7.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 17-16 | 2.4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | 31% |
| 2 | JAX | 31-27 | 4.8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 9.3% | 52% |
| 3 | MIN | 10-48 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 30% |
| 4 | DEN | 3-28 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4.5% | 56% |
| 5 | DET | 24-37 | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 12.5% | 50% |
| 12 | NE | 20-26 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 17.6% | 43% |
| 13 | BAL | 32-14 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.1% | 28% |
| 14 | BUF | 34-39 | 20.6 | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 16.7% | 42% |
| 15 | BAL | 0-24 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.6% | 57% |
| 16 | MIA | 45-21 | 12.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 12.9% | 48% |
| 17 | ARI | 37-14 | 6.7 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 6.1% | 23% |
| 18 | CLE | 18-20 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5.3% | 38% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 42 |
| Receiving yards | 307 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.89 |
| Yards per target | 7.31 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Snap share | 41.5% |
| Target share | 10.34% |
| Air-yards share | 13.12% |
| WOPR | 0.248 |
| RACR | 0.813 |
| Average depth of target | 10 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Total YAC | 63 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 74.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.37 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.9% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.25 |
The offense threw it 640 times. He took 6.92% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 30.48% |
| Tee Higgins | 16.14% |
| Chase Brown | 14.5% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.56% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 6.92% |
| Noah Fant | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 23 | 7.36 | 9.78 | 9.81% |
| Jake Browning | 4 | 13 | 2.93 | 3.62 | 9.45% |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 6 | 7.5 | 5.83 | 17.6% |
6 of his 12 games were blowouts, 40.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.77 in those and 7.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against LV — 27 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.2% target share, in a game that finished 41-24. His worst was Week 11 against LAC at 0, on 2 targets, final score 27-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.4; in the 5 decided by more, 9.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.2 points per game. He scored 8.84, 3.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.43 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 10-16 | 4.8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13.8% | 35% |
| 2 | KC | 25-26 | 16.1 | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 26.5% | 47% |
| 3 | WAS | 33-38 | 8.7 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 13.2% | 50% |
| 4 | CAR | 34-24 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 | 3.3% | 33% |
| 5 | BAL | 38-41 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 5.1% | 43% |
| 7 | CLE | 21-14 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.2% | 31% |
| 8 | PHI | 17-37 | 12.3 | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 22.2% | 53% |
| 9 | LV | 41-24 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 100 | 2 | 16.2% | 36% |
| 10 | BAL | 34-35 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 11 | LAC | 27-34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 62% |
| 13 | PIT | 38-44 | 10.3 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 13.5% | 44% |
| 14 | DAL | 27-20 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 7% | 28% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-27 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 11.4% | 32% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-6 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7.1% | 34% |
| 17 | DEN | 30-24 | 18.6 | 10 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 24.5% | 57% |
| 18 | PIT | 19-17 | 14.8 | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 21.7% | 69% |
| Receptions | 65 |
| Targets | 83 |
| Receiving yards | 665 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.84 |
| Yards per target | 8.01 |
| Catch rate | 78.31% |
| Snap share | 45.31% |
| Target share | 13.17% |
| Air-yards share | 14.53% |
| WOPR | 0.3 |
| RACR | 0.856 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 245 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 3 of 13 |
| Target share | 13 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 13 |
The offense threw it 652 times. He took 13.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 27.91% |
| Tee Higgins | 17.38% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 13.24% |
| Chase Brown | 10.37% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.73% |
| Zack Moss | 4.31% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 30.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.23 in those and 8.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against DEN — 9.5 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.5% target share, in a game that finished 26-23. His worst was Week 12 against NYG at 0, on 2 targets, final score 7-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 5 decided by more, 2.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 4.36, 15.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-25 | 6.6 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 5.6% | 41% |
| 2 | MIA | 17-24 | 8.3 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 14.3% | 72% |
| 3 | NYJ | 15-10 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.7% | 47% |
| 4 | DAL | 3-38 | 2.2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10.3% | 60% |
| 5 | NO | 0-34 | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12.9% | 30% |
| 6 | LV | 17-21 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9.7% | 60% |
| 7 | BUF | 29-25 | 8.5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6.7% | 50% |
| 8 | MIA | 17-31 | 3.1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10.7% | 28% |
| 9 | WAS | 17-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.7% | 86% |
| 10 | IND | 6-10 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 11.5% | 67% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 26% |
| 15 | KC | 17-27 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.5% | 40% |
| 16 | DEN | 26-23 | 9.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6.5% | 66% |
| 17 | BUF | 21-27 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 25% | 68% |
| 18 | NYJ | 3-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10.3% | 72% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 244 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.36 |
| Yards per target | 5.42 |
| Catch rate | 64.44% |
| Snap share | 54.2% |
| Target share | 9.61% |
| Air-yards share | 10.62% |
| WOPR | 0.217 |
| RACR | 0.826 |
| Average depth of target | 8.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Total YAC | 96 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 74.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 15% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.71 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Demario Douglas | 14.6% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12.01% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.28% |
| DeVante Parker | 10.17% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9.43% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 11 | 32 | 4.11 | 5.69 | 8.71% |
| Bailey Zappe | 4 | 13 | 5.05 | 4.77 | 12.07% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.95 in those and 5.32 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against MIN — 24.9 PPR on 7 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 16-24. His worst was Week 14 against LAC at 0, on 2 targets, final score 17-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.6; in the 6 decided by more, 2.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5.78, 6.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.92 expected, a gap of 2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-7 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.2% | 42% |
| 2 | BAL | 42-38 | 14.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 8% | 62% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-19 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 40% |
| 4 | CIN | 15-27 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11.1% | 44% |
| 5 | NYJ | 17-40 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 6.3% | 54% |
| 6 | MIN | 16-24 | 24.9 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 2 | 15.6% | 64% |
| 7 | PIT | 16-10 | 5.7 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 20% | 61% |
| 8 | DET | 31-27 | 12.8 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 11.8% | 46% |
| 9 | CHI | 35-32 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.9% | 49% |
| 10 | CLE | 39-17 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9.1% | 46% |
| 12 | HOU | 30-15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 54% |
| 13 | SF | 17-33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 20% |
| 14 | LAC | 17-23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 39% |
| 15 | BUF | 29-32 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.3% | 20% |
| 16 | GB | 20-26 | 3.4 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8.3% | 24% |
| 17 | NE | 21-23 | 9.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 10% | 42% |
| 18 | NYJ | 11-6 | 8.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 22.2% | 38% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 362 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 5.78 |
| Yards per target | 6.96 |
| Catch rate | 61.54% |
| Snap share | 43.82% |
| Target share | 9.09% |
| Air-yards share | 9.42% |
| WOPR | 0.203 |
| RACR | 0.614 |
| Average depth of target | 9.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 97 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.6% |
| End-zone target share | 32.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.92 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.08 |
The offense threw it 584 times. He took 9.65% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 31.54% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 21.71% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 9.65% |
| Trent Sherfield | 9.46% |
| Raheem Mostert | 7.79% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 4.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12 | 29 | 3.88 | 6.07 | 7.45% |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 12 | 7.47 | 7.83 | 12.83% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 11 | 14.6 | 8.36 | 13.35% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.55 in those and 7.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against ATL — 21.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 28-30. His worst was Week 10 against BAL at 0, on 7 targets, final score 22-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.6; in the 10 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.5 points per game. He scored 9.71, 15.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 17-16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 39% |
| 2 | BUF | 0-35 | 7.1 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 14.3% | 64% |
| 3 | LV | 28-31 | 18.6 | 10 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 25.5% | 66% |
| 4 | IND | 17-27 | 16.7 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 20% | 69% |
| 5 | TB | 17-45 | 8.3 | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 17.9% | 78% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-23 | 19.5 | 8 | 9 | 115 | 0 | 19.1% | 70% |
| 7 | ATL | 28-30 | 21.5 | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 | 20% | 82% |
| 8 | BUF | 11-26 | 9.8 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 11.1% | 97% |
| 9 | HOU | 17-9 | 9.4 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 20% | 79% |
| 10 | BAL | 22-10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20.6% | 81% |
| 11 | NYJ | 24-17 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 17.6% | 71% |
| 12 | CAR | 33-10 | 4.7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.7% | 80% |
| 13 | NYG | 20-9 | 11.6 | 7 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 26.8% | 67% |
| 15 | NYJ | 31-24 | 9.3 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 30.8% | 63% |
| 16 | NO | 20-3 | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 15.4% | 75% |
| 17 | TEN | 3-34 | 9.1 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 18.4% | 76% |
| 18 | NE | 33-24 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14.3% | 57% |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Targets | 112 |
| Receiving yards | 780 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.71 |
| Yards per target | 6.96 |
| Catch rate | 65.18% |
| Snap share | 71.41% |
| Target share | 18.39% |
| Air-yards share | 22.48% |
| WOPR | 0.433 |
| RACR | 0.858 |
| Average depth of target | 9.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Total YAC | 221 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 80.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.9% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.51 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 15 |
| Target share | 8 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 15 |
The offense threw it 615 times. He took 18.73% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 23.41% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 18.73% |
| DeVante Parker | 12.21% |
| Myles Gaskin | 10.54% |
| Durham Smythe | 6.86% |
| Albert Wilson | 6.52% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 11 | 66 | 9.54 | 7.56 | 17.66% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 46 | 10.02 | 6.11 | 19.72% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.88 in those and 12.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against BUF — 27 PPR on 11 targets and a 23.9% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 6 against NYJ at 0, on 2 targets, final score 24-0. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 8 decided by more, 9.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10 points per game. He scored 10.62, 6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 11-21 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16.7% | 73% |
| 2 | BUF | 28-31 | 27 | 8 | 11 | 130 | 1 | 23.9% | 55% |
| 3 | JAX | 31-13 | 8.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 15% | 49% |
| 4 | SEA | 23-31 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 63% |
| 5 | SF | 43-17 | 14.1 | 5 | 6 | 91 | 0 | 22.2% | 45% |
| 6 | NYJ | 24-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.9% | 66% |
| 8 | LA | 28-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9.1% | 57% |
| 9 | ARI | 34-31 | 7.2 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 15.4% | 70% |
| 10 | LAC | 29-21 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 20.8% | 48% |
| 11 | DEN | 13-20 | 8.3 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 13.5% | 66% |
| 12 | NYJ | 20-3 | 11.5 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 12.8% | 70% |
| 13 | CIN | 19-7 | 23.8 | 9 | 11 | 88 | 1 | 28.9% | 70% |
| 14 | KC | 27-33 | 23.5 | 5 | 6 | 65 | 2 | 13% | 52% |
| 16 | LV | 26-25 | 9.4 | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 20.6% | 71% |
| 17 | BUF | 26-56 | 9.7 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 | 16.9% | 77% |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Targets | 85 |
| Receiving yards | 703 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 10.62 |
| Yards per target | 8.27 |
| Catch rate | 62.35% |
| Snap share | 62.13% |
| Target share | 16.16% |
| Air-yards share | 23.53% |
| WOPR | 0.409 |
| RACR | 0.701 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Total YAC | 167 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.36 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.9% |
| End-zone target share | 29.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.42 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 12 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 12 |
| Target share | 9 of 12 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 12 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 15.63% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVante Parker | 18.93% |
| Mike Gesicki ← | 15.63% |
| Jakeem Grant | 9.93% |
| Myles Gaskin | 8.64% |
| Isaiah Ford | 8.09% |
| Lynn Bowden | 6.8% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8 | 50 | 11.21 | 7.74 | 17.27% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 35 | 9.94 | 9.03 | 14.89% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.76 in those and 11.99 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Mike Gesicki →