TE · CIN · GWTTKB

Drew Sample — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.66 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 3.

30 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on espn.
ESPN170

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE49

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 51.8 points, 3.4 per game — 23.5 catches, 188 yards, 1.6 TDs. That is TE5, 403 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 2.2 points per game to a ceiling of 6.5, with the median at 3.4. Boom rate 91%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 403. We rank him 233 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.

In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 2.8%, with a bear case of 1.1% and a bull case of 4.2%.

The projected target split across the offense:

Ja'Marr Chase26.9%
Tee Higgins19.4%
Chase Brown11.8%
Mike Gesicki9.6%
Andrei Iosivas9.1%
Colbie Young6%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.

Key departures: No key departures

Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.

How that share projection was built

Depth/practice piece (arrival_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 3.0% baseline.

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+3.3 · easier
Weeks 1–6+4.3 · easier
Weeks 12–17-3.9 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.5 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -5.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Austin Hooper2023367%+46.1%
Josh Oliver20245.565%+17.1%
Hayden Hurst20242.260%-39.9%
Gerald Everett20241.259%-21.9%
Adam Trautman20243.458%+2.9%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. From 0 to 358, peaking at 1,308.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2019, round 2, pick 52 by CIN
CollegeWashington
Age at draft23
Height6′5″
Weight255 lb
40-yard dash4.71s
Vertical33.5″
Broad jump115″
3-cone7.15s
Shuttle4.31s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game3.7
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate8.3%
Bust rate33.3%
Games missed per season0

The record, season by season

2025 · CIN · 12 games

His best game was Week 3 against MIN — 10 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 10-48. His worst was Week 7 against PIT at 0, on 0 targets, final score 33-31. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.5; in the 7 decided by more, 3.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 2.66, 12.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE17-16001004.3%69%
2JAX31-271.712704.7%41%
3MIN10-48102320111.5%68%
5DET24-370.911-102.5%44%
6GB18-270.812-205%34%
7PIT33-31000000%51%
12NE20-26111002.9%52%
13BAL32-142.7121404.5%59%
15BAL0-243.2221205.6%54%
16MIA45-215.1223106.5%66%
17ARI37-141.811803%65%
18CLE18-204.7331707.9%72%

Production

Receptions15
Targets20
Receiving yards106
Carries1
Rushing yards3
Touchdowns1
Points per game2.66
Yards per target5.3
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry3

Role

Snap share56.25%
Target share4.87%
Air-yards share0.09%
WOPR0.074
RACR1.602

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.2
Yards after catch per reception7.3
Yards before catch per reception-0.2
Total YAC109
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted103.3
Receiving EPA per game0.22
Rushing EPA per game-0.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.3%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.51
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 640 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase30.48%
Tee Higgins16.14%
Chase Brown14.5%
Andrei Iosivas9.56%
Mike Gesicki6.92%
Noah Fant6.75%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joe Burrow6112.927.455.3%
Jake Browning364.24.336.23%
Joe Flacco330.6-0.672.63%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 71.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.56 in those and 1.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CIN · 11 games

His best game was Week 9 against LV — 11.4 PPR on 4 targets and a 10.8% target share, in a game that finished 41-24. His worst was Week 7 against CLE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 21-14. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.9; in the 4 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 3.32, 6.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
2KC25-265.8332808.8%52%
4CAR34-24111003.3%57%
7CLE21-14001004.2%51%
9LV41-2411.44414110.8%76%
11LAC27-341.512904.3%60%
13PIT38-442.822805.4%63%
14DAL27-203.3221304.7%69%
15TEN37-271.811802.9%68%
16CLE24-62.2111203.6%88%
17DEN30-241.311302%61%
18PIT19-175.4441408.7%55%

Production

Receptions20
Targets22
Receiving yards109
Carries1
Rushing yards-4
Touchdowns1
Points per game3.32
Yards per target4.95
Catch rate90.91%
Yards per carry-4

Role

Snap share63.64%
Target share5.34%
Air-yards share1.06%
WOPR0.086
RACR1.699

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.5
Yards after catch per reception4.1
Yards before catch per reception1.4
Total YAC81
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted102.5
Receiving EPA per game0.43
Rushing EPA per game-0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share1.7%
End-zone target share1.8%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Goal-line carry share4%
Expected receiving TDs0.62
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.38
Expected rushing TDs0.42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 652 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase27.91%
Tee Higgins17.38%
Mike Gesicki13.24%
Chase Brown10.37%
Andrei Iosivas9.73%
Zack Moss4.31%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 37.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.8 in those and 2.87 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · CIN · 14 games

His best game was Week 9 against BUF — 12 PPR on 4 targets and a 9.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-18. His worst was Week 15 against MIN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 6 decided by more, 2.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 3.59, 7.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
3LA19-161.711702.2%44%
4TEN3-270.911-103.7%32%
6SEA17-131.411402.9%35%
8SF31-17001003.1%38%
9BUF24-1812343019.5%37%
10HOU27-303.2231207.7%36%
11BAL20-343.9221906.5%30%
12PIT10-168.1111114%44%
13JAX34-312.1111102.7%58%
14IND34-142.422408%67%
15MIN27-24001002.5%57%
16PIT11-346.8333807.5%55%
17KC17-255.13421012.9%72%
18CLE31-142.722707.1%73%

Production

Receptions22
Targets27
Receiving yards163
Touchdowns2
Points per game3.59
Yards per target6.04
Catch rate81.48%

Role

Snap share48.43%
Target share5.74%
Air-yards share-0.08%
WOPR0.084
RACR0.411

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.1
Yards after catch per reception7.9
Yards before catch per reception-0.5
Total YAC173
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted101.1
Receiving EPA per game0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share3.6%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.41
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.59

Who else ate

The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase24.53%
Tyler Boyd16.58%
Tee Higgins12.86%
Joe Mixon10.83%
Tanner Hudson8.46%
Trenton Irwin5.41%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joe Burrow7133.35.465.09%
Jake Browning7143.896.576.39%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 25.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.2 in those and 4.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · CIN · 2 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 1.8 points per game. He scored 0.9, 48.6% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT20-231.211201.9%29%
2DAL17-200.611-402.9%14%

Production

Receptions2
Targets2
Receiving yards-2
Touchdowns0
Points per game0.9
Yards per target-1
Catch rate100%

Role

Snap share21.5%
Target share2.4%
Air-yards share-0.75%
WOPR0.03
RACR0.5

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1
Yards after catch per reception0
Yards before catch per reception-1
Total YAC0
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-1.51

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.13
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.13

Who else ate

The offense threw it 610 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase22.56%
Tee Higgins18.35%
Tyler Boyd13.8%
Joe Mixon12.63%
Hayden Hurst11.45%
Samaje Perine8.59%

2021 · CIN · 10 games

His best game was Week 9 against CLE — 6.6 PPR on 3 targets and a 7.3% target share, in a game that finished 16-41. His worst was Week 17 against KC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 34-31. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.7; in the 5 decided by more, 2.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 1.91, 31% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
3PIT24-10000000%45%
5GB22-252.9249010.8%31%
6DET34-11001003.4%54%
9CLE16-416.6333607.3%51%
11LV32-131.312307.1%50%
14SF23-262.4111402.9%27%
15DEN15-101.211204.8%30%
16BAL41-212.922904.3%42%
17KC34-31000000%33%
18CLE16-211.811803.4%31%

Production

Receptions11
Targets15
Receiving yards81
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.91
Yards per target5.4
Catch rate73.33%

Role

Snap share39.4%
Target share4.4%
Air-yards share1.18%
WOPR0.074
RACR2.577

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.3
Yards after catch per reception7.5
Yards before catch per reception-0.1
Total YAC82
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted85.7
Receiving EPA per game0.03

Who else ate

The offense threw it 555 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase23.7%
Tee Higgins20.37%
Tyler Boyd17.41%
C.J. Uzomah11.67%
Joe Mixon8.89%
Samaje Perine5.74%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joe Burrow9141.925.214.51%
Brandon Allen111.883.4%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 10 games were blowouts, 56.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.7 in those and 1.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · CIN · 16 games

His best game was Week 13 against MIA — 11.9 PPR on 7 targets and a 25.9% target share, in a game that finished 7-19. His worst was Week 8 against TEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 31-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.8; in the 8 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.9 points per game. He scored 4.93, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.6 expected, a gap of -1.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LAC13-161.711702.9%35%
2CLE30-3511.57945015.3%59%
3PHI23-231.111102.4%89%
4JAX33-257.73547014.3%85%
5BAL3-274.2222206.9%94%
6IND27-31001002.6%75%
7CLE34-3710.25652012.8%97%
8TEN31-20001002.9%85%
10PIT10-361.912905.3%88%
11WAS9-204.9242909.1%84%
12NYG17-1964540018.5%78%
13MIA7-1911.97749025.9%87%
14DAL7-305.13421010.5%89%
15PIT27-171.411407.7%91%
16HOU37-317.811812.6%87%
17BAL3-383.52315015%72%

Production

Receptions40
Targets53
Receiving yards349
Touchdowns1
Points per game4.93
Yards per target6.58
Catch rate75.47%

Role

Snap share80.94%
Target share9.67%
Air-yards share4.89%
WOPR0.179
RACR2.782

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.2
Yards after catch per reception5
Yards before catch per reception3.8
Total YAC198
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted90.8
Receiving EPA per game0.15

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share14.3%
End-zone target share12.9%
Expected receiving TDs2.6
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-1.6

Who else ate

The offense threw it 581 times. He took 9.38% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Boyd19.47%
Tee Higgins19.12%
A.J. Green18.41%
Giovani Bernard10.44%
Drew Sample 9.38%
Joe Mixon4.6%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joe Burrow10324.326.637.45%
Brandon Allen5206.866.6514.5%
Ryan Finley111.447.7%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 18.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.67 in those and 5.75 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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