Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.99 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.3, usage worth 6.6.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.1 |
| FFA | 274 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR132 |
Our board has him at 75.2 points, 4.6 per game — 26.3 catches, 333 yards, 2.6 TDs. That is WR6, 259 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.7 points per game to a ceiling of 7.8, with the median at 4.6. Boom rate 69%, bust rate 43%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.3 on consensus and our board has him 259. We rank him 88.7 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.
In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.1%, with a bear case of 7.9% and a bull case of 10.6% and a full range of 6.8% to 13%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ja'Marr Chase | 26.9% |
| Tee Higgins | 19.4% |
| Chase Brown | 11.8% |
| Mike Gesicki | 9.6% |
| Andrei Iosivas ← | 9.1% |
| Colbie Young | 6% |
Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 10.1%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 9.2%, p25-p75 [6.9%, 12.1%], tails [4.7%, 16.6%]. Closest comps: Demarcus Robinson 2020→2021 (KC: 10.7%→7.5%); Quez Watkins 2022→2023 (PHI: 11.3%→12.4%); Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 2021→2022 (TEN: 11.6%→11.8%).
self-anchored 45% to own 10.1% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 9.2%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.3 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -8.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 2022 | 9.2 | 76% | -2.3% |
| Quez Watkins | 2022 | 5 | 71% | -26.5% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2021 | 10.6 | 71% | -62% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2022 | 5.2 | 69% | -6.8% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2022 | 6.9 | 67% | -30% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 6, pick 206 by CIN |
| College | Princeton |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
| 3-cone | 6.85s |
| Shuttle | 4.12s |
| Career PPR per game | 5.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 14.7% |
| Bust rate | 38.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.13 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 9 against CHI — 18 PPR on 7 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 42-47. His worst was Week 15 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 0-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 8 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.6 points per game. He scored 5.99, 9.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.25 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 31-27 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 11.6% | 84% |
| 4 | DEN | 3-28 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 4.5% | 90% |
| 5 | DET | 24-37 | 13.2 | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 17.5% | 87% |
| 6 | GB | 18-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10% | 94% |
| 7 | PIT | 33-31 | 7.9 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9% | 70% |
| 8 | NYJ | 38-39 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 80% |
| 9 | CHI | 42-47 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 15.6% | 84% |
| 11 | PIT | 12-34 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10.3% | 74% |
| 12 | NE | 20-26 | 10.6 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 20.6% | 83% |
| 13 | BAL | 32-14 | 9.9 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 4.5% | 94% |
| 14 | BUF | 34-39 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8.3% | 65% |
| 15 | BAL | 0-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 89% |
| 16 | MIA | 45-21 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3.2% | 51% |
| 17 | ARI | 37-14 | 8.1 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 18.2% | 70% |
| 18 | CLE | 18-20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7.9% | 53% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 435 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.99 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 56.9% |
| Yards per carry | 4.67 |
| Snap share | 77.87% |
| Target share | 10.2% |
| Air-yards share | 13.11% |
| WOPR | 0.245 |
| RACR | 0.805 |
| Average depth of target | 10.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Total YAC | 103 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.78 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.9% |
| End-zone target share | 11.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.25 |
The offense threw it 640 times. He took 9.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 30.48% |
| Tee Higgins | 16.14% |
| Chase Brown | 14.5% |
| Andrei Iosivas ← | 9.56% |
| Mike Gesicki | 6.92% |
| Noah Fant | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 29 | 7.17 | 6.93 | 12.42% |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 16 | 4.63 | 7.38 | 7.48% |
| Jake Browning | 3 | 13 | 6.37 | 8.92 | 11.2% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.97 in those and 6.49 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against WAS — 16.2 PPR on 7 targets and a 18.4% target share, in a game that finished 33-38. His worst was Week 8 against PHI at 0, on 3 targets, final score 17-37. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.9; in the 6 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 7.05, 10.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.01 expected, a gap of 2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 10-16 | 5.6 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 20.7% | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 25-26 | 14.7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 11.8% | 77% |
| 3 | WAS | 33-38 | 16.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 18.4% | 77% |
| 4 | CAR | 34-24 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.3% | 76% |
| 5 | BAL | 38-41 | 4.9 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 5.1% | 79% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-7 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 13% | 66% |
| 7 | CLE | 21-14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 71% |
| 8 | PHI | 17-37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 88% |
| 9 | LV | 41-24 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 10.8% | 91% |
| 10 | BAL | 34-35 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 7.4% | 84% |
| 11 | LAC | 27-34 | 7.6 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 6.5% | 68% |
| 13 | PIT | 38-44 | 12.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 10.8% | 68% |
| 14 | DAL | 27-20 | 8.1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 11.6% | 68% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11.4% | 87% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-6 | 14.3 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 | 10.7% | 68% |
| 17 | DEN | 30-24 | 8.9 | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 8.2% | 79% |
| 18 | PIT | 19-17 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 6.5% | 86% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 479 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.05 |
| Yards per target | 7.85 |
| Catch rate | 59.02% |
| Snap share | 78.41% |
| Target share | 9.92% |
| Air-yards share | 16.19% |
| WOPR | 0.262 |
| RACR | 0.686 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.4 |
| Total YAC | 67 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 12.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.01 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.99 |
The offense threw it 652 times. He took 9.73% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 27.91% |
| Tee Higgins | 17.38% |
| Mike Gesicki | 13.24% |
| Chase Brown | 10.37% |
| Andrei Iosivas ← | 9.73% |
| Zack Moss | 4.31% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.43 in those and 7.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against CLE — 20.6 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 31-14. His worst was Week 13 against JAX at 0, on 0 targets, final score 34-31. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.2; in the 5 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 4.6, 17.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 1.81 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TEN | 3-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 5 | ARI | 34-20 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4.5% | 32% |
| 6 | SEA | 17-13 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.9% | 15% |
| 8 | SF | 31-17 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3.1% | 16% |
| 9 | BUF | 24-18 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.4% | 13% |
| 10 | HOU | 27-30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 28% |
| 12 | PIT | 10-16 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 33% |
| 13 | JAX | 34-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 15 | MIN | 27-24 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | 26% |
| 16 | PIT | 11-34 | 7.6 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 20% | 72% |
| 18 | CLE | 31-14 | 20.6 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 25% | 92% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 116 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 4.6 |
| Yards per target | 4.64 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Snap share | 32.36% |
| Target share | 6.68% |
| Air-yards share | 10.5% |
| WOPR | 0.173 |
| RACR | 0.949 |
| Average depth of target | 8.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Total YAC | 35 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.49 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.19 |
The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 24.53% |
| Tyler Boyd | 16.58% |
| Tee Higgins | 12.86% |
| Joe Mixon | 10.83% |
| Tanner Hudson | 8.46% |
| Trenton Irwin | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 6 | 3.05 | 3.83 | 2.58% |
| Jake Browning | 5 | 19 | 6.46 | 4.89 | 11.6% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 55.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.4 in those and 2.22 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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