Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.02 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 112.5, usage worth 12.2.
| SLEEPER | 109.9 |
| ESPN | 123.2 |
| YAHOO | 115.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 109 |
| CBS | 101.2 |
| FFA | 96 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB36 |
| ADP standard deviation | 9.3 picks |
Our board has him at 155.3 points, 9.7 per game — 443 rushing yards, 2.7 rushing TDs, 44.6 catches. That is RB5, 96 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.5 points per game to a ceiling of 14, with the median at 9.7. Boom rate 44%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 112.5 on consensus and our board has him 96. We rank him 16.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Todd Bowles as head coach, Zac Robinson calling it. The offense projects to 33.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Ted Hurst (wr5), David Sills V (wr7), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2). Out: Mike Evans (wr1), Rachaad White (rb2), Ko Kieft (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Bucky Irving | 57.6% |
| Kenneth Gainwell ← | 23.9% |
| Sean Tucker | 13.6% |
| Josh Williams | 5% |
What the offense looks like: Baker Mayfield is likely the QB of the future for Tampa & they are actively working to extend him. At its peak, it is a high powered offense that you want to own pieces of. This WR room has a void to fill with the departure of future HOF WR Mike Evans. Godwin is aging, & Egbuka COULD become a true WR1. OR McMillan, Johnson, or Hurst could break out and establish themselves as low end WR2/WR3 types. All of them can't win, but someone will. This RB room is confusing and Tampa has recently run a committee. Unclear if that is because Bucky was hurt in 2025 but he didnt have a single carry inside the 5 yard line the entire season. This makes me think Kenneth Gainwell will see significantly more playing time than many people realize. Sean Tucker MAY end up keeping the goalline role as well. We will find out.
Key additions: RB Kenneth Gainwell signed 2 year deal following IMPRESSIVE season in Pittsburgh as their RB2. Drafted WR Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Extended TE Cade Otton. Hired new OC Zac Robinson from ATL.
Key departures: WR Mike Evans left to 49ers in free agency after entire career with Bucs. RB Rachaad White left to Commanders in free agency (RB2 and filled in when Irving was injured).
Notes: Emeka Egbuka is primed for a MASSIVE breakout if Baker Mayfield has strong 2026 season. Mike Evans left team in free agency for 49ers, opening up opportunity for Jalen McMillan & Tez Johnson & Ted Hurst 3rd round draft pick (young & productive WR). Chris Godwin aging & struggles to produce but could have decent low end WR2/WR3 role over next few years. Bucs signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency who was HIGHLY productive in Pittsburgh. Strong concern for Bucky Irving owners. We will have to see how the RB split carries. Will get a better idea through the summer and camp. Worth note, if the Bucs do not perform well in 2026, Todd Bowles is going to get fired. Expect his best product or he's done.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Baker Mayfield returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.8 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.1 att/g; New OC Zac Robinson — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 23.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 5.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 91 |
| Last season, carries per game | 6.7 |
That is a reduction of 1.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: TB rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.7 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Kenneth Gainwell study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +148.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 2022 | 11.5 | 39% | -28.8% |
| Justice Hill | 2024 | 8.5 | 38% | -18.2% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2024 | 11.7 | 37% | +11.4% |
| Rachaad White | 2024 | 13.3 | 36% | 0% |
| Jaylen Warren | 2024 | 8.3 | 35% | +30.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 5, pick 150 by PHI |
| College | Memphis |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Weight | 201 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 14.7% |
| Bust rate | 36.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Ribs |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.86 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against MIN — 31.4 PPR on 25 touches and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 24-21. His worst was Week 10 against LAC at 2.4, on 3 touches, final score 10-25. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 7 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 13.02, 4.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.6 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | 5.3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 13.8% | 54% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 6.6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 16.1% | 42% |
| 3 | NE | 21-14 | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 4.5% | 26% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 31.4 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 19 | 99 | 2 | 27.3% | 77% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 9.6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 20.7% | 34% |
| 7 | CIN | 31-33 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 6.1% | 39% |
| 8 | GB | 25-35 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 6.3% | 38% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 7.4 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14.3% | 37% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 2.4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.7% | 52% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 29.5 | 7 | 8 | 81 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 27.6% | 63% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 18.2 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 10 | 92 | 0 | 19.4% | 51% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 6.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.6% | 42% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 16.2 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 21.2% | 48% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 19.6 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 25.9% | 52% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 23.8 | 5 | 7 | 78 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 18.4% | 54% |
| 17 | CLE | 6-13 | 6.8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 10.8% | 68% |
| 18 | BAL | 26-24 | 21.4 | 8 | 9 | 64 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 20.5% | 67% |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Targets | 85 |
| Receiving yards | 486 |
| Carries | 114 |
| Rushing yards | 537 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 13.02 |
| Yards per target | 5.72 |
| Catch rate | 85.88% |
| Yards per carry | 4.71 |
| Snap share | 49.65% |
| Target share | 16.31% |
| Air-yards share | -1.44% |
| WOPR | 0.234 |
| RACR | -8.323 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 528 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.1% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 31% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.6 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.81 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 29 of 49 |
| Target share | 4 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 36 of 49 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 16.35% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell ← | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15 | 71 | 11.57 | 5.28 | 15.35% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 14 | 23.85 | 7.93 | 23.5% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18 in those and 14.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against PIT — 9 PPR on 10 touches and a 9.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-13. His worst was Week 13 against BAL at 0, on 0 touches, final score 24-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.8; in the 7 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 3.68, 24.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-29 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.4% | 20% |
| 2 | ATL | 21-22 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 3 | NO | 15-12 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 19% |
| 4 | TB | 16-33 | 0.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3.4% | 44% |
| 6 | CLE | 20-16 | 2.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 4.2% | 21% |
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 7.1% | 36% |
| 8 | CIN | 37-17 | 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 5.3% | 15% |
| 9 | JAX | 28-23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4.3% | 28% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 4.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 5% | 32% |
| 11 | WAS | 26-18 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 4% | 18% |
| 12 | LA | 37-20 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 13 | BAL | 24-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 14 | CAR | 22-16 | 5.3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 10.5% | 24% |
| 15 | PIT | 27-13 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 9.7% | 39% |
| 16 | WAS | 33-36 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 19% |
| 17 | DAL | 41-7 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5.6% | 23% |
| 18 | NYG | 20-13 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 9.8% | 49% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 116 |
| Carries | 75 |
| Rushing yards | 290 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.68 |
| Yards per target | 5.27 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 3.87 |
| Snap share | 26% |
| Target share | 4.98% |
| Air-yards share | 0.63% |
| WOPR | 0.08 |
| RACR | 0.288 |
| Average depth of target | 1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.5 |
| Total YAC | 108 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.42 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.62 |
The offense threw it 448 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 16 | 3.86 | 6 | 4.66% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 4.8% |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 4 | 4.3 | 2.25 | 9.8% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 40.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.25 in those and 2.81 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against NE — 11.4 PPR on 18 touches and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 25-20. His worst was Week 11 against KC at 1.5, on 2 touches, final score 21-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 6 decided by more, 5.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 6.09, 9.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 25-20 | 11.4 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 13.3% | 62% |
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 5.7% | 46% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 5.9% | 38% |
| 5 | LA | 23-14 | 3.4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 5.9% | 38% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 4.7% | 41% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 5.6 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 14.3% | 30% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 4.8% | 37% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.8% | 30% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10.7% | 35% |
| 13 | SF | 19-42 | 9.7 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14.3% | 54% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0% | 45% |
| 15 | SEA | 17-20 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 3.3% | 41% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 10.9 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 8.3% | 40% |
| 17 | ARI | 31-35 | 6.68 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17.4% | 53% |
| 18 | NYG | 10-27 | 6.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 3% | 38% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 183 |
| Carries | 84 |
| Rushing yards | 364 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.09 |
| Yards per target | 4.95 |
| Catch rate | 81.08% |
| Yards per carry | 4.33 |
| Snap share | 41.25% |
| Target share | 7.27% |
| Air-yards share | 1.38% |
| WOPR | 0.118 |
| RACR | -2.465 |
| Average depth of target | 1.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.3 |
| Total YAC | 175 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.73 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 22.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 8.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.79 |
The offense threw it 562 times. He took 7.05% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell ← | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 36 | 6.08 | 5.08 | 7.56% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | 6.2 | 0 | 3% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.23 in those and 6.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against HOU — 12.8 PPR on 7 touches and a 12% target share, in a game that finished 29-17. His worst was Week 11 against IND at 0, on 1 touches, final score 17-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 9 decided by more, 4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 5.17, 12.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.9 expected, a gap of -1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 38-35 | 11.2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 13.8% | 30% |
| 2 | MIN | 24-7 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.5% | 26% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-8 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 4 | JAX | 29-21 | 8.7 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 8.3% | 27% |
| 5 | ARI | 20-17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 6 | DAL | 26-17 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-13 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.3% | 25% |
| 9 | HOU | 29-17 | 12.8 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 12% | 28% |
| 10 | WAS | 21-32 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8% | 32% |
| 11 | IND | 17-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 12 | GB | 40-33 | 11.6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 4% | 34% |
| 13 | TEN | 35-10 | 8.3 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10.5% | 27% |
| 14 | NYG | 48-22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 18% |
| 15 | CHI | 25-20 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5.4% | 40% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-40 | 9.8 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 11.8% | 42% |
| 17 | NO | 10-20 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 27% |
| 18 | NYG | 22-16 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 3.2% | 27% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 29 |
| Receiving yards | 169 |
| Carries | 53 |
| Rushing yards | 240 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 5.17 |
| Yards per target | 5.83 |
| Catch rate | 79.31% |
| Yards per carry | 4.53 |
| Snap share | 28% |
| Target share | 5.66% |
| Air-yards share | 0.73% |
| WOPR | 0.089 |
| RACR | 2.548 |
| Average depth of target | 1.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.2 |
| Total YAC | 141 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.46 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.9 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.78 |
The offense threw it 536 times. He took 5.74% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 28.71% |
| DeVonta Smith | 26.93% |
| Dallas Goedert | 13.66% |
| Quez Watkins | 10.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell ← | 5.74% |
| Miles Sanders | 5.15% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 23 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 5.21% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 6 | 6.75 | 9.67 | 9.05% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.55 in those and 6.49 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against KC — 20.9 PPR on 11 touches and a 18.2% target share, in a game that finished 30-42. His worst was Week 15 against WAS at 0, on 1 touches, final score 27-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.1; in the 10 decided by more, 9.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 7.71, 9.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 32-6 | 12.3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 9.4% | 35% |
| 2 | SF | 11-17 | 7.2 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 33% |
| 3 | DAL | 21-41 | 6.4 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10.5% | 31% |
| 4 | KC | 30-42 | 20.9 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 18.2% | 39% |
| 5 | CAR | 21-18 | 3.4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8.8% | 24% |
| 6 | TB | 22-28 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 23% |
| 7 | LV | 22-33 | 14.1 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 25.8% | 51% |
| 8 | DET | 44-6 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 9 | LAC | 24-27 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 19% |
| 10 | DEN | 30-13 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.5% | 31% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-13 | 6.2 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 16% |
| 13 | NYJ | 33-18 | 19.7 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 12 | 54 | 1 | 22.7% | 38% |
| 15 | WAS | 27-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 8% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-10 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 3% |
| 17 | WAS | 20-16 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 18 | DAL | 26-51 | 18.7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 20.6% | 53% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 50 |
| Receiving yards | 253 |
| Carries | 68 |
| Rushing yards | 291 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.71 |
| Yards per target | 5.06 |
| Catch rate | 66% |
| Yards per carry | 4.28 |
| Snap share | 28% |
| Target share | 10.16% |
| Air-yards share | 1.86% |
| WOPR | 0.166 |
| RACR | 2.822 |
| Average depth of target | 1.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.8 |
| Total YAC | 226 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.27 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 11.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.29 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.19 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 10.73% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVonta Smith | 22.32% |
| Dallas Goedert | 16.31% |
| Quez Watkins | 13.3% |
| Jalen Reagor | 12.23% |
| Kenneth Gainwell ← | 10.73% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.3% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 38 | 6.07 | 5.55 | 8.51% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 12 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 21.65% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 35.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.35 in those and 4.1 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Kenneth Gainwell →