Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.84 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 162.5, usage worth 7.
21 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 195.1 |
| ESPN | 170.8 |
| YAHOO | 131.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 175 |
| CBS | 152.4 |
| FFA | 176 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB54 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 27 picks |
Our board has him at 83 points, 5.2 per game — 250 rushing yards, 1.2 rushing TDs, 24.1 catches. That is RB6, 175 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.4 points per game to a ceiling of 11.8, with the median at 5.2. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 162.5 on consensus and our board has him 175. We rank him 12.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
not an early-down runner, only shows up in clear passing-down/2-min situations
sell · medium conviction · 2026-08Cleveland Browns returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Todd Monken as head coach, Travis Switzer calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Deshaun Watson (qb), KC Concepcion (wr2), Denzel Boston (wr4), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Ahmani Marshall (rb4), Jack Stoll (te2). Out: Dillon Gabriel (qb), Jamari Thrash (wr3), David Njoku (te1).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Quinshon Judkins | 58.9% |
| Dylan Sampson ← | 20.5% |
| Raheim Sanders | 17.7% |
| Ahmani Marshall | 2.9% |
What the offense looks like: Historically, this has been a brutal offense to own in fantasy. Other than TE and RB, not much fantasy relevance has come out of Cleveland in some time. Things could change with the new O line & KC & Boston arriving. Cleveland HAS to figure out the QB situation before we can have full confidence in any of these players, but the pieces may be falling in place for multiple guys to be weekly starters.
Key additions: MASSIVE OVERHAUL for browns line this offseason: Brought in LG Zion Johnson, Center Elgton Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, & drafted LT Spencer Fano in the 1st round. Its a completely new unit under HC Todd Monken.
Key departures: TE David Njoku left the Browns & is still a free agent. Only key loss.
Notes: Browns drafted OT Spencer Fano RD 1 & WR KC Concepcion RD 1 in 2026 draft. Round 2 they took Denzel Boston. Concepcion & Boston can have fantasy value IF Cleveland figures out QB position. Browns fired HC Stefanski & hired Jesse Minter. Jerry Jeudy will likely struggle to have real fantasy value with the new rookies introduced. Harold Fannin has strong value with David Njoku leaving Cleveland. Njoku is still a free agent & COULD potentially return to Cleveland but it is unlikely. RB Quinshon Judkins was a real star of the Browns offense in 2025 and far outperformed Dylan Sampson. Judkins should be 100% recovered from his season ending leg injury he suffered in 2025 by week 1 2026.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Deshaun Watson, avg 29.7 att/g over 2024,2023; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.2 att/g; New OC Travis Switzer — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Todd Monken.
| Projected carry share | 20.5% |
| Projected carries per game | 4.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 74 |
| Last season, carries per game | 4.3 |
That is an increase of 0 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.9 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CLE rates 18.5 against a league average of 23, 4.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +7.4 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +4.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Dylan Sampson study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -18.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2023 | 6.2 | 78% | +22.6% |
| Jaylen Warren | 2022 | 5.8 | 72% | +87.6% |
| Roschon Johnson | 2023 | 6.8 | 66% | -12.2% |
| Israel Abanikanda | 2023 | 3.1 | 65% | -15.5% |
| Tony Pollard | 2020 | 7.6 | 64% | +28.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 126 by CLE |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
His best game was Week 1 against CIN — 17.3 PPR on 20 touches and a 19% target share, in a game that finished 16-17. His worst was Week 4 against DET at -0.2, on 2 touches, final score 10-34. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.4; in the 7 decided by more, 6.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 5.84, 16.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-17 | 17.3 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 19% | 43% |
| 2 | BAL | 17-41 | 10.9 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7.3% | 23% |
| 3 | GB | 13-10 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 4 | DET | 10-34 | -0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2.9% | 13% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-21 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 6.3% | 10% |
| 6 | PIT | 9-23 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 3.9% | 18% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-6 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 5.6% | 16% |
| 8 | NE | 13-32 | 7.9 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18.2% | 46% |
| 10 | NYJ | 20-27 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 3.1% | 30% |
| 11 | BAL | 16-23 | 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | 11% |
| 12 | LV | 24-10 | 16.2 | 2 | 3 | 59 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 16.7% | 37% |
| 13 | SF | 8-26 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 14 | TEN | 29-31 | 9.8 | 5 | 6 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15.8% | 38% |
| 17 | PIT | 13-6 | 5.7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 13% | 35% |
| 18 | CIN | 20-18 | 6.4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 14.3% | 50% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 271 |
| Carries | 65 |
| Rushing yards | 175 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.84 |
| Yards per target | 6.78 |
| Catch rate | 82.5% |
| Yards per carry | 2.69 |
| Snap share | 26.47% |
| Target share | 8.67% |
| Air-yards share | -2.11% |
| WOPR | 0.116 |
| RACR | 0.112 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.4 |
| Total YAC | 318 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 6.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 11.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 7.68% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 20.54% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 20.35% |
| David Njoku | 9.21% |
| Isaiah Bond | 8.45% |
| Dylan Sampson ← | 7.68% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 6 | 16 | 7.05 | 8.44 | 10.63% |
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 12 | 3.42 | 4.92 | 7.42% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 12 | 7.05 | 6.42 | 7.3% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 26.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.72 in those and 5.42 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Dylan Sampson →