Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.01 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 9.8.
25 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 744 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB54 |
Cleveland Browns returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Todd Monken as head coach, Travis Switzer calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Deshaun Watson (qb), KC Concepcion (wr2), Denzel Boston (wr4), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Ahmani Marshall (rb4), Jack Stoll (te2). Out: Dillon Gabriel (qb), Jamari Thrash (wr3), David Njoku (te1).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jerry Jeudy | 17.2% |
| KC Concepcion | 16.6% |
| Harold Fannin Jr | 15.8% |
| Denzel Boston | 14.9% |
| Cedric Tillman | 8.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: Historically, this has been a brutal offense to own in fantasy. Other than TE and RB, not much fantasy relevance has come out of Cleveland in some time. Things could change with the new O line & KC & Boston arriving. Cleveland HAS to figure out the QB situation before we can have full confidence in any of these players, but the pieces may be falling in place for multiple guys to be weekly starters.
Key additions: MASSIVE OVERHAUL for browns line this offseason: Brought in LG Zion Johnson, Center Elgton Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, & drafted LT Spencer Fano in the 1st round. Its a completely new unit under HC Todd Monken.
Key departures: TE David Njoku left the Browns & is still a free agent. Only key loss.
Notes: Browns drafted OT Spencer Fano RD 1 & WR KC Concepcion RD 1 in 2026 draft. Round 2 they took Denzel Boston. Concepcion & Boston can have fantasy value IF Cleveland figures out QB position. Browns fired HC Stefanski & hired Jesse Minter. Jerry Jeudy will likely struggle to have real fantasy value with the new rookies introduced. Harold Fannin has strong value with David Njoku leaving Cleveland. Njoku is still a free agent & COULD potentially return to Cleveland but it is unlikely. RB Quinshon Judkins was a real star of the Browns offense in 2025 and far outperformed Dylan Sampson. Judkins should be 100% recovered from his season ending leg injury he suffered in 2025 by week 1 2026.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Deshaun Watson, avg 29.7 att/g over 2024,2023; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.2 att/g; New OC Travis Switzer — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Todd Monken.
Base case 321.4 PPR points, with a bear case of 197.8 and a bull case of 409, and a comp mean of 312.8. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott 2019 | 135.6 | 0.6 |
| Matt Ryan 2016 | 253.7 | 0.6 |
| Russell Wilson 2019 | 377.7 | 0.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2014 | 338.1 | 0.6 |
| Matt Ryan 2018 | 267.3 | 0.7 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 100th percentile and his value in the 0th, which the engine reads as well below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move 1.2% over the following year, across 15 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: CLE rates 18.5 against a league average of 23, 4.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -38.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — pedigree-driven (limited evidence). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 2023 | 6.9 | 67% | -28.6% |
| Malik Willis | 2024 | 8.6 | 66% | +82.2% |
| Malik Willis | 2022 | 2.8 | 65% | -42.9% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 2024 | 10.4 | 60% | -28.1% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2020 | 10.7 | 56% | +2.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 94 by CLE |
| College | Oregon |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 205 lb |
His best game was Week 10 against NYJ — 20.08 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-27. His worst was Week 16 against BUF at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-23. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.8; in the 6 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 7.01, 28.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BAL | 17-41 | 4.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 10% |
| 4 | DET | 10-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-21 | 16.1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | PIT | 9-23 | 8.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-6 | 5.84 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 95% |
| 8 | NE | 13-32 | 11.54 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NYJ | 20-27 | 20.08 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | BAL | 16-23 | 2.92 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 49% |
| 13 | SF | 8-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 16 | BUF | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| Carries | 14 |
| Rushing yards | 86 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 7.01 |
| Yards per carry | 6.14 |
| Snap share | 56.2% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 20.54% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 20.35% |
| David Njoku | 9.21% |
| Isaiah Bond | 8.45% |
| Dylan Sampson | 7.68% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 0 | 12.48 | — | 0% |
| Shedeur Sanders | 3 | 0 | 0.97 | — | 0% |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 0 | 2.38 | — | 0% |
5 of his 10 games were blowouts, 31.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.43 in those and 9.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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