Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.92 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 4.3.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 484 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB69 |
Our board has him at 0.4 points, 0 per game — 1 rushing yards, 0.2 catches. That is RB6, 347 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0 points per game to a ceiling of 0, with the median at 0. Boom rate 80%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 347. We rank him 177 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| JK Dobbins | 54.6% |
| RJ Harvey | 28.1% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin ← | 10.1% |
| Jonah Coleman | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 10.1% |
| Projected carries per game | 2.2 |
| Projected carries, full season | 37 |
| Last season, carries per game | 4.5 |
That is a reduction of 2.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.8 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -10.2 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -0.4 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -18.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Chandler | 2024 | 2 | 78% | -12.5% |
| Dameon Pierce | 2024 | 4.4 | 77% | -21.5% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2022 | 3.1 | 76% | -21.3% |
| Craig Reynolds | 2023 | 2.6 | 73% | +46% |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2022 | 2.4 | 73% | 0% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 6.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 15.6% |
| Bust rate | 18.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Quadricep |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.17 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 11 against KC — 8.4 PPR on 7 touches and a 2.8% target share, in a game that finished 22-19. His worst was Week 6 against NYJ at 0, on 2 touches, final score 13-11. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.
His usage that season was worth 4.3 points per game. He scored 3.92, 16% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NYJ | 13-11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 10% |
| 11 | KC | 22-19 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2.8% | 13% |
| 13 | WAS | 27-26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 2.3% | 19% |
| 14 | LV | 24-17 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 2.8% | 14% |
| 15 | GB | 34-26 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 16 | JAX | 20-34 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 17 | KC | 20-13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 18 | LAC | 19-3 | 6.8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 8.7% | 22% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 27 |
| Carries | 37 |
| Rushing yards | 187 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.92 |
| Yards per target | 4.5 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 5.05 |
| Snap share | 16% |
| Target share | 2.55% |
| Air-yards share | -6.01% |
| WOPR | -0.005 |
| RACR | 0.66 |
| Average depth of target | -3.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3 |
| Total YAC | 39 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.8 |
The offense threw it 613 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 21.6% |
| Troy Franklin | 18.12% |
| Evan Engram | 13.24% |
| RJ Harvey | 10.1% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8.89% |
| Pat Bryant | 8.54% |
His best game was Week 8 against CAR — 12.6 PPR on 9 touches and a 2.6% target share, in a game that finished 28-14. His worst was Week 2 against PIT at 0.6, on 3 touches, final score 6-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.6; in the 10 decided by more, 7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 6.08, 16.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 20-26 | 5.8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 11.9% | 35% |
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 3 | TB | 26-7 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2.9% | 26% |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 5.6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 4% | 34% |
| 5 | LV | 34-18 | 11.5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 15.4% | 37% |
| 6 | LAC | 16-23 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 6.3% | 25% |
| 7 | NO | 33-10 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 8 | CAR | 28-14 | 12.6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 2.6% | 32% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-41 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 9.1% | 32% |
| 10 | KC | 14-16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 11 | ATL | 38-6 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 12 | LV | 29-19 | 4.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 2.6% | 29% |
| 13 | CLE | 41-32 | 9.4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 84 | 0 | 6.5% | 36% |
| 15 | IND | 31-13 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 9.4% | 24% |
| 17 | CIN | 24-30 | 9.6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 6.5% | 23% |
| 18 | KC | 38-0 | 6.8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 39 | 0 | 6.9% | 41% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 27 |
| Receiving yards | 76 |
| Carries | 113 |
| Rushing yards | 496 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.08 |
| Yards per target | 2.81 |
| Catch rate | 88.89% |
| Yards per carry | 4.39 |
| Snap share | 28.19% |
| Target share | 5.26% |
| Air-yards share | -3.28% |
| WOPR | 0.056 |
| RACR | -1.944 |
| Average depth of target | -3.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.8 |
| Total YAC | 167 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.7 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 20.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.92 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.03 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 46 |
| Target share | 37 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 43 of 46 |
The offense threw it 569 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 32.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.33 in those and 4.55 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against CHI — 19.4 PPR on 10 touches and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 1 against LV at 0.3, on 1 touches, final score 16-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 8 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 6.24, 6.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 16-17 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 8% |
| 2 | WAS | 33-35 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 5% |
| 3 | MIA | 20-70 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 4 | CHI | 31-28 | 19.4 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 11.5% | 33% |
| 5 | NYJ | 21-31 | 17.9 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 9 | 68 | 1 | 14.8% | 33% |
| 6 | KC | 8-19 | 6.2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 9.1% | 40% |
| 7 | GB | 19-17 | 5.6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 8.3% | 17% |
| 8 | KC | 24-9 | 5.9 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11.1% | 11% |
| 10 | BUF | 24-22 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 6.9% | 15% |
| 11 | MIN | 21-20 | 6.5 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15.6% | 15% |
| 12 | CLE | 29-12 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 13 | HOU | 17-22 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 8.3% | 15% |
| 14 | LAC | 24-7 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 6.7% | 19% |
| 15 | DET | 17-42 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9.4% | 13% |
| 16 | NE | 23-26 | 10.7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 14.3% | 25% |
| 17 | LAC | 16-9 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 10% | 28% |
| 18 | LV | 14-27 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 160 |
| Carries | 76 |
| Rushing yards | 410 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.24 |
| Yards per target | 4.44 |
| Catch rate | 86.11% |
| Yards per carry | 5.39 |
| Snap share | 18.59% |
| Target share | 7.59% |
| Air-yards share | -4.49% |
| WOPR | 0.082 |
| RACR | -1.077 |
| Average depth of target | -3.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -4.2 |
| Total YAC | 290 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 11.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.24 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 7.59% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 18.99% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.35% |
| Javonte Williams | 12.24% |
| Samaje Perine | 11.81% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin ← | 7.59% |
| Adam Trautman | 7.38% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15 | 33 | 6.41 | 4.3 | 7.94% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 3 | 4.9 | 6 | 5% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.47 in those and 7.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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